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Home / News / River Thames’s Road to the 2025 Preakness Stakes: Race Progression and Key Wins

River Thames’s Road to the 2025 Preakness Stakes: Race Progression and Key Wins

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Race Progression Analysis for River Thames

We analyze River Thames’s race progression towards the 2025 Preakness Stakes, drawing on his free past performances (PPs) sourced from Equibase and comparing him to other contenders.

Race Progression Breakdown

River Thames, trained by Todd A. Pletcher, has a record of 2-1-1 in 4 starts, with a prime power rating of 97 (4th among Preakness contenders). He enters the Preakness as a 9-2 contender from post 6, backed by a strong third in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Race data is derived from free Equibase PPs, ensuring factual accuracy without reproducing proprietary elements.

Debut (January 11, 2025)

River Thames debuted on January 11, 2025, at Gulfstream Park in a 6-furlong maiden special weight on a fast dirt track, winning by ¾ length in 1:10.87 with a 96 speed figure. In a 9-horse field, he raced four-wide, took the lead, and was ridden out to beat Vanderbilt and White Whale. His time is faster than Pay Billy’s maiden win (1:12.87, 88) and competitive with Goal Oriented’s debut (1:10.07, 98), showcasing early speed and professionalism compared to Journalism’s debut third (1:10.50, 83).

Allowance Optional Claiming (February 1, 2025)

On February 1, 2025, River Thames raced at Gulfstream Park in a 1-mile allowance optional claiming event ($75,000) on a fast dirt track, winning by 1 ¼ lengths in 1:36.16 with a 91 speed figure. In an 8-horse field, he stalked along the rail, drew off, and held off Souper Times and Rolando. His time is faster than Gosger’s maiden win (1:37.88, 94) and American Promise’s maiden (1:44.67, 102), aligning with Journalism’s maiden win (1:36.08, 105) and confirming his ability to stretch out.

Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) (March 1, 2025)

On March 1, 2025, River Thames competed in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park over 1 1/16 miles on a fast dirt track, finishing 2nd in 1:43.67 with a 98 speed figure. In a 6-horse field, he tracked two-to-three-wide, led briefly, and was nailed late by Sovereignty, ahead of Neoequos. His performance surpasses Pay Billy’s Private Terms Stakes win (1:44.98, 93) and is comparable to Goal Oriented’s allowance win (1:42.79, 104), showing graded stakes competitiveness.

Blue Grass Stakes (G1) (April 8, 2025)

River Thames’s final prep was the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) on April 8, 2025, at Keeneland over 1 1/8 miles on a fast dirt track, finishing 3rd in 1:51.11 with a 103 speed figure. In a 7-horse field, he tracked three-wide, rallied between horses in the upper stretch, and finished behind Burnham Square and East Avenue. His time is faster than Pay Billy’s Federico Tesio (1:52.57, 93) and Heart of Honor’s Al Bastakiya (1:59.11, 101), and his speed figure matches Journalism’s Santa Anita Derby (108), positioning him as a top Preakness contender.

Analysis of Progression

River Thames’s progression is concise and impressive, with a 2-1-1 record in 4 starts, showing consistent improvement. His debut (1:10.87, 96 speed figure) established his speed, while his allowance win (1:36.16, 91) confirmed his ability to handle 1 mile. His Fountain of Youth second (1:43.67, 98) and Blue Grass third (1:51.11, 103) demonstrate graded stakes prowess, with speed figures competitive with Journalism (110) and Heart of Honor (109), and surpassing Pay Billy (93) and American Promise (101). His off-the-pace style, seen in his Blue Grass rally, aligns with Journalism and Heart of Honor, contrasting with Goal Oriented and Pay Billy’s front-running approaches.

His pedigree, with Maclean’s Music (sire of 2017 Preakness winner Cloud Computing) and Discreet Cat (2006 UAE Derby), supports stamina for 1 3/16 miles, as does his Blue Grass performance. His 4 starts give him less experience than Pay Billy (8) or American Promise (10) but more than Goal Oriented (2) or Gosger (3). He’s untested on wet tracks, unlike Journalism and American Promise, which could be a concern if Pimlico turns sloppy.

Comparison to Other Contenders

River Thames’s off-the-pace style aligns with Journalism and Heart of Honor (Journalism’s Derby second, 2:02.16, 101; Heart of Honor’s UAE Derby, 1:59.61, 109), who also rally late. His 2-for-4 record is less consistent than Journalism’s 4-for-6 or Heart of Honor’s 6-for-6 in-the-money, but his 103 speed figure matches Journalism’s peak and surpasses Gosger’s 96. Goal Oriented and Pay Billy, as front-runners (Goal Oriented’s allowance, 1:42.79, 104; Pay Billy’s Federico Tesio, 1:52.57, 93), could set a pace favoring River Thames’s closing kick, similar to Sovereignty’s Derby rally. Clever Again’s front-running style (assumed sprint speed) lacks River Thames’s graded stakes depth. American Promise’s Virginia Derby win (1:46.67, 101) is comparable, but his Derby fade (52) contrasts with River Thames’s recent form. River Thames’s 103 speed figure is second only to Journalism (110) and Heart of Honor (109), giving him an edge over Pay Billy (93).

Looking Ahead to the Preakness Stakes

River Thames enters the 2025 Preakness Stakes as a 9-2 contender from post 6, a manageable draw for his off-the-pace style. His pedigree, with Maclean’s Music (sire of Cloud Computing, 2017 Preakness) and Discreet Cat (2006 Cigar Mile), suggests he can handle 1 3/16 miles, supported by his Blue Grass third (1:51.11). His lack of wet-track experience is a concern, unlike Journalism and American Promise, who handled sloppy conditions in the Derby. His recent workout (4 furlongs in :48.25 at Belmont on May 10, 2025) shows readiness, though slightly slower than Goal Oriented’s :47.60.

The 8-horse Preakness field is smaller than his Blue Grass (7 horses) and Fountain of Youth (6 horses), easing navigation compared to American Promise’s Derby struggles (19 horses). His closing style could capitalize on early speed from Goal Oriented, Pay Billy, or Clever Again, as seen in our Preakness Stakes analysis. His 9-2 odds position him as a strong contender, behind Journalism (8-5) but ahead of Goal Oriented (6-1). Pairing him with closers like Journalism or Heart of Honor (12-1) in exactas or trifectas offers value, and his graded stakes form makes him a viable win bet.