Horse racing news and analysis from TheFreePPs.com
Breeders' Cup 2025 Post Times and Race Order will be announced October 22, 2025
ATTENTION: You can now access free past performances using the URL FreePPs.com.
Help the player. Help the game.
Free Past Performances
Home / News / 2025 Preakness Stakes: Expert Picks, Contender Analysis, and Betting Guide

2025 Preakness Stakes: Expert Picks, Contender Analysis, and Betting Guide

Free past performances Preakness 2025 Canva

As the 2025 Preakness Stakes approaches on May 17 at Pimlico Race Course, we’ve been diving deep into the past performances (PPs) of the nine contenders, sourced as factual details from industry-standard racing records, to compare their strengths, weaknesses, and betting value. With an 8-horse field—smaller than the 19-horse Kentucky Derby chaos—this second jewel of the Triple Crown promises a tactical battle over 1 3/16 miles. Below, let’s break down the contenders, share our predictions, and offer a betting guide to help you navigate the wagering landscape, all based on our analysis of their race progressions and key metrics like speed figures, running styles, and pedigrees.

Disclaimer: The information provided is for entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of success, implied or otherwise, when using any part of the information found in this analysis to wager on the Preakness Stakes. The predictions are based on handicapping experience using free past performances available online in the public domain. Enjoy the Preakness!

The Contenders: A Comparative Overview

The 2025 Preakness field is diverse, featuring front-runners like Goal Oriented and Clever Again, closers like Journalism and Heart of Honor, and versatile runners like Sandman. Here’s how they stack up, drawing on Equibase PPs and my race progression analyses.

Journalism (8-5, Post 2)

Journalism, the morning-line favorite, is my top pick for a reason. His 4-1-1 record in 6 starts, with a peak 110 speed figure in the San Felipe Stakes (1:42.08, 3/1/25), screams class. His Kentucky Derby second (2:02.16, 101, 5/3/25) on a sloppy track showed he can handle adversity, rallying five-wide in a 19-horse field to finish just behind Sovereignty. Trained by Michael McCarthy, his closing style suits Pimlico’s tight turns, and his Curlin-Uncle Mo pedigree (Curlin won the 2007 Preakness) supports the 1 3/16-mile distance. His consistency (6-for-6 in the money) outshines Goal Oriented’s limited 2 starts and American Promise’s spotty 2-for-10 record. The smaller 8-horse field should make navigation easier than the Derby. My concern? His 8-5 odds offer low value for win bets, but he’s a must-use in exotics.

Sandman (4-1, Post 7)

Sandman, trained by Mark Casse, is my second choice. His 3-1-2 record in 9 starts includes a sparkling Arkansas Derby win (1:50.07, 104, 3/29/25), where he swept four-wide to beat Publisher. His Kentucky Derby 7th (2:02.16, 86, 5/3/25) was disappointing, but he was bumped and raced wide in a chaotic field, still moving up late. His 104 speed figure matches Goal Oriented’s peak and tops Pay Billy’s 93. His Tapit-Distorted Humor pedigree (Tapit sired four Belmont winners) and versatile stalking style make him a threat. The 8-horse field favors him over his Derby struggles, but post 7 could force a wide trip. At 4-1, he offers solid win value.

River Thames (9-2, Post 6)

River Thames, trained by Todd Pletcher, is a close third in my book. His 2-1-1 record in 4 starts includes a strong Blue Grass Stakes third (1:51.11, 103, 4/8/25), rallying between horses behind Burnham Square. His 103 speed figure is just shy of Sandman’s 104, and his Fountain of Youth second (1:43.67, 98, 3/1/25) to Sovereignty shows graded stakes grit. His Maclean’s Music-Discreet Cat pedigree (Cloud Computing, 2017 Preakness) supports the distance, and his off-the-pace style aligns with Journalism. My worry is his lack of wet-track experience, unlike Journalism or American Promise, and post 6 may require a clean trip. At 9-2, he’s a great value for place or show bets.

Clever Again (5-1, Post 8)

Clever Again, trained by Steven Asmussen, is a dangerous front-runner with a 2-1-0 record in 3 starts. His Hot Springs Stakes win (1:37.16, 108, 3/30/25) at 1 mile produced a field-high 108 speed figure, matching Journalism’s Santa Anita Derby. His maiden win (1:43.47, 100, 2/23/25) at 1 1/16 miles suggests he can stretch out, backed by his American Pharoah-Galileo pedigree (American Pharoah won the 2015 Preakness). His gate-to-wire style mirrors Goal Oriented, but post 8 could force him wide early. Untested on wet tracks, he’s riskier if Pimlico turns sloppy. At 5-1, he’s a win contender but better in exotics with closers.

Goal Oriented (6-1, Post 1)

Goal Oriented, trained by Bob Baffert, is my dark horse. Undefeated at 2-0-0, his allowance win (1:42.79, 104, 5/3/25) on a sloppy Churchill Downs track earned a 104 speed figure, matching Sandman and topping Pay Billy’s 93. His debut (1:10.07, 98, 4/6/25) showed resilience, rallying despite a slow start. His Not This Time-Afleet Alex pedigree (Afleet Alex won the 2005 Preakness) and early-presser style make him a threat, especially from post 1. His limited experience (2 starts) is a concern compared to Sandman’s 9 or Journalism’s 6, but Baffert’s eight Preakness wins add confidence. At 6-1, he’s a high-value win bet.

Heart of Honor (12-1, Post 4)

Heart of Honor, trained by Jamie Osborne, brings international flair with a 2-4-0 record in 6 starts, never worse than second. His UAE Derby second (1:59.61, 109, 4/5/25) earned a field-second 109 speed figure, just behind Journalism’s 110. His Honor A.P.-Scat Daddy pedigree (Scat Daddy sired 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify) and closing style suit the Preakness distance, but he’s untested on wet tracks, unlike Journalism. His experience in large fields (up to 15 in Dubai) helps in the 8-horse field, and post 4 is ideal. At 12-1, he’s a prime exotic play but riskier for win bets.

American Promise (15-1, Post 3)

American Promise, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, has a 2-1-1 record in 10 starts but lacks consistency. His Virginia Derby win (1:46.67, 101, 3/15/25) was strong, but his Kentucky Derby 16th (2:02.16, 52, 5/3/25) was a fade after an early move. His Justify-Tapit pedigree (Justify won the 2018 Preakness) and muddy-track maiden win (1:44.67, 102, 12/29/24) offer hope, especially if Pimlico turns wet. Post 3 suits his front-running style, but his 101 speed figure trails Clever Again’s 108. At 15-1, he’s a longshot for exotics only.

Pay Billy (20-1, Post 5)

Pay Billy, trained by Michael Gorham, boasts a 4-1-1 record in 8 starts, with three 2025 stakes wins, including the Federico Tesio (1:52.57, 93, 4/19/25). His Improbable-Harlington pedigree supports the distance, and his front-running style aligns with Clever Again. His 93 speed figure is the field’s lowest among top contenders, trailing Sandman’s 104, and his wet-track third (61) is less convincing than Journalism’s Derby run. Post 5 is fine, but his regional stakes focus limits his ceiling. At 20-1, he’s a deep exotic option.

Gosger (20-1, Post 9)

Gosger, trained by Brendan Walsh, rounds out the field with a 2-1-0 record in 3 starts. His Lexington Stakes win (1:44.67, 96, 4/12/25) showed a strong closing kick, backed by his Nyquist-Tapit pedigree (Nyquist was second in the 2016 Preakness). His 96 speed figure is competitive with Pay Billy’s 93 but trails Heart of Honor’s 109. Untested on wet tracks and stuck in post 9, he faces a tough trip. At 20-1, he’s a value exotic play, especially with Journalism or Heart of Honor.

Key Comparisons

Running Styles: The field splits into front-runners (Goal Oriented, Clever Again, Pay Billy, American Promise), closers (Journalism, Heart of Honor, River Thames, Gosger), and versatile stalkers (Sandman). A fast early pace from Goal Oriented and Clever Again could set up closers like Journalism and Heart of Honor, as seen in Sovereignty’s Derby rally past Journalism.

Speed Figures: Journalism (110) and Heart of Honor (109) lead, followed by Clever Again (108), Goal Oriented (104), Sandman (104), and River Thames (103). Pay Billy (93) and Gosger (96) lag, while American Promise’s 101 is solid but inconsistent.

Experience: Sandman (9 starts), American Promise (10), and Pay Billy (8) have the most races, while Goal Oriented (2) and Gosger (3) have the least. Journalism (6) and Heart of Honor (6) balance experience and consistency.

Wet Track Form: Journalism and American Promise shone on sloppy tracks (Derby second and maiden win), while Goal Oriented’s allowance win was on a sloppy track. Sandman (Derby 7th) and Pay Billy (wet-track third) have some experience, but River Thames, Clever Again, Heart of Honor, and Gosger are untested, a concern if rain hits Pimlico.

Pedigree: All contenders have distance-friendly sires: Journalism (Curlin), Sandman (Tapit), River Thames (Maclean’s Music), Clever Again (American Pharoah), Goal Oriented (Not This Time), Heart of Honor (Honor A.P.), American Promise (Justify), Pay Billy (Improbable), Gosger (Nyquist). Goal Oriented, Journalism, and Clever Again have Preakness-winning sires, giving them a slight edge.

Predictions

Based on my analysis, I see the Preakness unfolding as a duel between Journalism’s closing power and Sandman’s stalking versatility, with Goal Oriented and River Thames as upset threats. Here’s my predicted order of finish:

  1. Journalism: His Derby second, 110 speed figure, and consistency make him the horse to beat. Post 2 and a smaller field favor his late kick.
  2. Sandman: His Arkansas Derby win and 104 speed figure keep him close. Post 7 is tricky, but his stalking style adapts well.
  3. River Thames: His Blue Grass third and 103 speed figure signal upside. Post 6 requires a clean trip, but his closing style fits.
  4. Goal Oriented: His undefeated record, 104 speed figure, and post 1 make him a threat, especially if he controls the pace.
  5. Clever Again: His 108 speed figure is elite, but post 8 and untested distance are concerns.
  6. Heart of Honor: His 109 speed figure and UAE Derby second are strong, but no wet-track form hurts if it rains.
  7. Gosger: His Lexington win shows promise, but post 9 and 96 speed figure limit his chances.
  8. American Promise: His Virginia Derby win is notable, but his Derby fade suggests stamina issues.
  9. Pay Billy: His Federico Tesio win is respectable, but his 93 speed figure and regional focus cap his potential.

If Pimlico turns sloppy, I’d elevate Goal Oriented and American Promise, given their proven wet-track form, and slightly downgrade River Thames, Clever Again, and Heart of Honor.

Betting Guide

With the Preakness offering a compact field, I’m focusing on a mix of win, place, and exotic bets to maximize value. Here’s my betting strategy, tailored to different budgets and risk levels:

Win Bets ($10–$20 Budget)

  • Journalism ($10 to win): At 8-5, he’s the safest bet, but the payout is modest. His consistency and Derby form make him a lock for the top two.
  • Sandman ($5 to win): At 4-1, he offers better value. His Arkansas Derby win and stalking style make him a strong contender.
  • Goal Oriented ($5 to win): At 6-1, he’s my value pick. His undefeated record and Baffert’s Preakness pedigree scream upset potential.

Place/Show Bets ($10–$20 Budget)

  • River Thames ($5 to place, $5 to show): At 9-2, his Blue Grass form and closing style make him likely to hit the board, offering decent payouts.
  • Heart of Honor ($5 to show): At 12-1, his 109 speed figure and consistency make him a safe show bet for exotics insurance.

Exacta Box ($12–$24 Budget)

  • Journalism, Sandman, River Thames, Goal Oriented ($2 exacta box, $24 total): This covers my top four picks, capturing likely win-place combinations. Journalism-Sandman or Goal Oriented-Journalism could yield solid returns.

Trifecta Key ($10–$20 Budget)

  • Journalism key with Sandman, River Thames, Goal Oriented, Heart of Honor ($1 trifecta: Journalism first, others second and third, $12 total): This bets Journalism to win, with my next four picks filling the place and show spots. It’s a focused play for a high payout if Journalism leads.

Longshot Exotics ($10–$20 Budget)

  • Superfecta Wheel ($1 superfecta: Journalism, Sandman first; Journalism, Sandman, River Thames, Goal Oriented second; Journalism, Sandman, River Thames, Goal Oriented, Heart of Honor, Gosger third; all fourth, $20 total): This targets Journalism or Sandman to win, with strong contenders in the top three and any horse fourth, chasing a big payout with Gosger (20-1) as a sneaky fourth-place option.

Budget-Friendly Exotic ($5–$10 Budget)

  • Exacta Box: Journalism, Goal Oriented ($5 exacta box, $10 total): This pairs the favorite with my value pick, offering a balance of safety and upside.

Final Thoughts

The 2025 Preakness Stakes is shaping up as a clash of proven class (Journalism, Sandman) and untapped potential (Goal Oriented, River Thames). My money’s on Journalism to edge Sandman, with River Thames and Goal Oriented rounding out the top four. The smaller field favors tactical runners, and a wet track could shake things up, boosting Goal Oriented and American Promise. For bettors, mixing Journalism’s reliability with Sandman’s value and Goal Oriented’s upside in exotics offers the best shot at profit. Check the weather and final odds at Pimlico, and let’s cash some tickets!