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2025 Kentucky Derby Predictions, Analysis & Wagering Strategies

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Get ready for the 2025 Kentucky Derby with our in-depth analysis, expert predictions, and strategic wagering guide! Using free TimeformUS Past Performances courtesy of DRF, we break down the 20-horse field at Churchill Downs, highlighting top contenders, value plays, and longshots for Race 12 on May 3, 2025. With a fast track expected and an alternate sloppy track scenario covered, our insights include pace projections, speed figures, and tailored betting strategies for a $100 budget, ensuring you’re set for the Run for the Roses!

Disclaimer: The information provided is for entertainment purposes only. There is no guarantee of success, implied or otherwise, when using any part of the information found in this analysis to wager on the Kentucky Derby. The predictions are based on handicapping experience using the TimeformUS free past performances courtesy of DRF. Enjoy the Derby!

Race Context:

  • Date: May 3, 2025
  • Track: Churchill Downs, 1 1/4 miles, dirt
  • Field: 20 horses
  • Post Time: 6:57 PM ET
  • Conditions: Primary analysis assumes a fast track, as no rain is forecast for Saturday. Alternate analysis for a sloppy track will be provided.
  • Wagering Options: Daily Double, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3 (Races 12-13-14), Super Hi-5

TimeformUS Methodology:

  • Speed Figures: Adjusted for track, distance, and conditions, reflecting overall performance quality.
  • Pace Projector: Predicts early race shape (fast, slow) and identifies leaders, trackers, midpack, or closers.
  • Running Styles: Leader, Tracker, Speed, Midpack, or Closer, influencing trip dynamics.
  • Early/Late Pace Ratings: Early ratings (speed to the half-mile) and Late ratings (closing ability) guide pace analysis.
  • Trainer/Jockey Stats: Recent win percentages and success in graded stakes.
  • Pedigree and Track Bias: Suitability for 1 1/4 miles and Churchill’s surface, especially on fast or sloppy tracks.

Pace Scenario (TimeformUS Pace Projector):

  • Early Pace: Fast (red), driven by horses like East Avenue (Early: 123), Owen Almighty (Early: 121), Neoequos (Early: 118), Citizen Bull (Early: 113), and Rodriguez (Early: 113). The Pace Projector shows a contested lead with multiple Leaders (East Avenue, Owen Almighty, Neoequos, Citizen Bull) and Trackers (Rodriguez, American Promise, Coal Battle).
  • Impact: A fast early pace favors closers (Sovereignty, Sandman, Journalism, Burnham Square) and midpack runners (Final Gambit, Chunk of Gold) who can capitalize on a pace meltdown.

Track Bias:

  • On a fast track, Churchill Downs typically favors tactical speed (Trackers/Midpack) or closers in the Derby due to the 1 1/4-mile distance and large field, which often creates traffic for front-runners.
  • On a sloppy track, inside speed and mud pedigrees (e.g., Into Mischief, Tapit, Justify) gain an edge, with less emphasis on late closers.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Citizen Bull (20-1, Post 1, Early: 113, Style: Leader, Late: 72):

  • Strengths: Trained by Bob Baffert, with a strong record (4-0-1 in 6 starts, $1.45M). Won G1 Santa Anita Derby (117), G1 BC Juvenile (116), and G1 American Pharoah (110). High early pace (113) suits front-running style. Proven at 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/16 miles. Recent works show sharpness (e.g., 7F in 1:24.1 on Apr 23).
  • Concerns: Low late pace (72) suggests stamina concerns at 1 1/4 miles. Post 1 risks traffic or being pinned inside. Baffert’s hot trainer rating (29% win) is offset by M. Garcia’s neutral jockey stats (11% win).
  • Outlook: Contender for top 4 if he clears early, but may fade late. Strong mud pedigree (Into Mischief) for sloppy track.
  • Fast Track: Leader, likely top 5. Sloppy Track: Benefits from inside post and mud breeding; top 3 potential.

2. Neoequos (30-1, Post 2, Early: 118, Style: Leader, Late: 68):

  • Strengths: High early pace (118) ensures front-end presence. Competitive in G1 Florida Derby (3rd, 112) and G2 Fountain of Youth (3rd, 113). Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. (24% win) and jockey Flavien Prat (23% win) are solid.
  • Concerns: Low late pace (68) and modest career earnings ($291K) suggest limited stamina and class. Post 2 could trap him inside if pace is hot.
  • Outlook: Pace factor but likely fades after 1 mile. Use in exotics for early speed.
  • Fast Track: Early leader, fades to midpack. Sloppy Track: Muddy form (6F win on sloppy track) boosts chances; possible top 5.

3. Final Gambit (30-1, Post 3, Early: 63, Style: Midpack, Late: 110):

  • Strengths: Strong late pace (110) suits Derby’s closing bias. Won G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks (117) on synthetic with a wide rally. Trainer Brad Cox (26% win) is reliable in big races. Juddmonte ownership signals quality.
  • Concerns: Limited dirt experience (mostly synthetic/turf). Modest career earnings ($521K) and low early pace (63) risk falling too far back. Jockey L. Machado (14% win) is unproven in Derby.
  • Outlook: Longshot for exotics if pace collapses. Needs clean trip to close.
  • Fast Track: Midpack, top 6-8 potential. Sloppy Track: Unproven on mud; likely struggles unless synthetic form translates.

4. Rodriguez (12-1, Post 4, Early: 113, Style: Tracker, Late: 82):

  • Strengths: Baffert trainee with G2 Wood Memorial win (119, 101 Beyer). Consistent speed figures (117-119 range). Tracker style (Early: 113, Late: 82) suits tactical trip. Jockey Mike Smith (16% win) excels in big races.
  • Concerns: Late pace (82) may limit stretch drive at 1 1/4 miles. Post 4 requires smart ride to avoid traffic.
  • Outlook: Major contender for top 4 due to form and connections. Value at 12-1.
  • Fast Track: Tracker, top 4 likely. Sloppy Track: Authentic progeny unproven on mud; still top 5 potential.

5. American Promise (30-1, Post 5, Early: 115, Style: Tracker, Late: 80):

  • Strengths: High early pace (115) and $500K stakes win (118) show front-end ability. Justify pedigree suggests mud affinity. Recent works on sloppy track (5F in :59.2 on Apr 26) indicate readiness.
  • Concerns: Trainer D. Lukas (9% win) and jockey N. Juarez (9% win) have cold stats. Low late pace (80) and inconsistent graded stakes form (e.g., 5th in Risen Star, 104) limit win chances.
  • Outlook: Pace factor, possible top 6-8 with clean trip. Value for exotics.
  • Fast Track: Tracker, midpack finish. Sloppy Track: Justify breeding boosts chances; top 5-6 potential.

6. Admire Daytona (JPN) (30-1, Post 6, Early: –, Style: None, Late: –):

  • Strengths: G2 UAE Derby win (103) at 1 3/16 miles shows stamina. Jockey Christophe Lemaire (33% win, limited starts) is elite. Northern Racing breeding suggests quality.
  • Concerns: No TimeformUS pace ratings or running style data. Limited dirt experience (mostly Japan). Trainer Y. Kato and U.S. form unproven. Post 6 is neutral but requires adaptation to Churchill.
  • Outlook: Longshot with stamina but too many unknowns for top contention.
  • Fast Track: Midpack at best. Sloppy Track: Unproven on mud; likely outclassed.

7. Luxor Cafe (15-1, Post 7, Early: –, Style: None, Late: –):

  • Strengths: Four wins in six starts ($379K), including three Japan stakes (108, 104, 95). American Pharoah pedigree suits distance. Jockey Joao Moreira is a world-class addition.
  • Concerns: No TimeformUS pace ratings or U.S. dirt form. Trainer N. Hori untested in Derby. Post 7 is neutral but requires tactical ride.
  • Outlook: Intriguing longshot for exotics if Japan form translates. Needs data for precise ranking.
  • Fast Track: Midpack, top 6-10 potential. Sloppy Track: American Pharoah progeny decent on mud; possible top 8.

8. Journalism (3-1, Post 8, Early: 82, Style: Midpack, Late: 116):

  • Strengths: Morning-line favorite with G1 Santa Anita Derby (121, 102 Beyer) and G2 San Felipe (121) wins. High late pace (116) and midpack style suit Derby’s closing bias. Trainer M. McCarthy (17% win) and jockey U. Rispoli (20% win, hot) are strong. Curlin pedigree ensures stamina.
  • Concerns: Post 8 risks wide trip in large field. Recent bumping issues (SA Derby) could repeat. Favorite status may lower value.
  • Outlook: Top contender, likely to win or hit board with clean trip.
  • Fast Track: Midpack, top 3 lock. Sloppy Track: Curlin progeny solid on mud; remains top 3.

9. Burnham Square (12-1, Post 9, Early: 91, Style: Closer, Late: 114):

  • Strengths: G1 Blue Grass win (115) with improving Beyer pattern (83-96). High late pace (114) and closer style thrive in fast-paced Derbies. Trainer I. Wilkes (13% win) and jockey B. Hernandez Jr. (16% win) are capable. Liam’s Map pedigree suits distance.
  • Concerns: Post 9 may force wide rally. Inconsistent prior form (e.g., 4th in Fountain of Youth, 109).
  • Outlook: Strong contender for top 4, especially at 12-1 value.
  • Fast Track: Closer, top 4 likely. Sloppy Track: Unproven on mud; top 5-6 with clean trip.

10. Grande (20-1, Post 10, Early: 110, Style: Speed, Late: 91):

  • Strengths: G2 Wood Memorial 2nd (115) behind Rodriguez. High early pace (110) and Curlin pedigree suit tactical speed. Trainer Todd Pletcher (18% win) and jockey John Velazquez (14% win) are Derby veterans.
  • Concerns: Limited experience (3 starts). Post 10 risks wide trip. Late pace (91) may limit stretch drive.
  • Outlook: Value play for top 6, but win unlikely.
  • Fast Track: Speed, top 6-8. Sloppy Track: Curlin progeny decent on mud; top 6 potential.

11. Flying Mohawk (30-1, Post 11, Early: 83, Style: Midpack, Late: 103):

  • Strengths: G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks 2nd (113) on synthetic and turf wins show versatility. Late pace (103) offers closing ability. Trainer D. Beckman (16% win) is solid.
  • Concerns: Limited dirt form. Post 11 and jockey J. Ramos (18% win) are unproven in Derby. Modest earnings ($296K) suggest class concerns.
  • Outlook: Longshot for superfecta if pace collapses.
  • Fast Track: Midpack, top 8-10. Sloppy Track: Karakontie progeny untested on mud; likely struggles.

12. East Avenue (20-1, Post 12, Early: 123, Style: Leader, Late: 78):

  • Strengths: Highest early pace (123) ensures front-end role. G1 Blue Grass 2nd (118) and G1 Breeders’ Futurity win (113) show class. Trainer B. Walsh (17% win) and jockey M. Franco (20% win) are reliable.
  • Concerns: Low late pace (78) and post 12 risk burnout or wide trip. Faltered in Risen Star (10th, 98).
  • Outlook: Pace setter, likely fades but top 6-8 possible.
  • Fast Track: Leader, midpack finish. Sloppy Track: Medaglia d’Oro progeny decent on mud; top 5-6 potential.

13. Publisher (30-1, Post 13, Early: 81, Style: Closer, Late: 105):

  • Strengths: G1 Arkansas Derby 2nd (114) behind Sandman. Late pace (105) suits closing style. Trainer Steve Asmussen (17% win) and jockey I. Ortiz Jr. (21% win) are top-tier.
  • Concerns: No wins in 7 starts ($408K). Post 13 requires wide rally. Inconsistent form (e.g., 7th in Southwest, 102).
  • Outlook: Longshot for exotics with clean trip.
  • Fast Track: Closer, top 6-10. Sloppy Track: American Pharoah progeny decent on mud; top 8 potential.

14. Tiztastic (20-1, Post 14, Early: 91, Style: Closer, Late: 100):

  • Strengths: G2 Louisiana Derby win (115) at 1 3/16 miles proves stamina. Late pace (100) and Asmussen/Joel Rosario (14% win) combo are strong. High earnings ($1.55M) reflect class.
  • Concerns: Post 14 risks wide trip. Inconsistent graded stakes form (e.g., 5th in Rebel, 103).
  • Outlook: Value play for top 6, possible top 4 with clean trip.
  • Fast Track: Closer, top 5-6. Sloppy Track: Tiz the Law progeny untested; top 6-8.

15. Render Judgment (30-1, Post 15, Early: 89, Style: Midpack, Late: 96):

  • Strengths: G1 Blue Grass 5th (112) and $500K stakes 2nd (108) show competitiveness. Trainer K. McPeek (15% win) has Derby experience. Recent sloppy work (5F in :59 on Apr 26) suggests mud readiness.
  • Concerns: Only 1 win in 7 starts ($251K). Post 15 and jockey J. Leparoux (12% win) are drawbacks. Modest late pace (96).
  • Outlook: Longshot for superfecta if pace collapses.
  • Fast Track: Midpack, top 8-10. Sloppy Track: Blame progeny decent on mud; top 8 potential.

16. Coal Battle (30-1, Post 16, Early: 107, Style: Tracker, Late: 88):

  • Strengths: G2 Rebel win (112) and G1 Arkansas Derby 3rd (114). High early pace (107) suits tracking style. Five wins in 8 starts ($1.19M) show consistency. Muddy win at Delta Downs (87).
  • Concerns: Post 16 risks wide trip. Trainer L. Briley (19% win) and jockey J. Vargas (12% win) unproven in Derby. Low late pace (88).
  • Outlook: Value play for top 6-8, especially at 30-1.
  • Fast Track: Tracker, top 6-8. Sloppy Track: Proven mud form; top 5-6 potential.

17. Sandman (6-1, Post 17, Early: 82, Style: Closer, Late: 112):

  • Strengths: G1 Arkansas Derby win (118) over Publisher and Coal Battle. High late pace (112) and closer style thrive in Derby’s pace setup. Trainer Mark Casse (17% win) and jockey J. Ortiz (21% win) are elite. Tapit pedigree suits distance.
  • Concerns: Post 17 requires wide rally. Recent cold trainer form (17% win). Inconsistent prior starts (e.g., 5th in Iroquois, 96).
  • Outlook: Major contender for top 3, strong value at 6-1.
  • Fast Track: Closer, top 3 likely. Sloppy Track: Tapit progeny excellent on mud; top 3 lock.

18. Sovereignty (5-1, Post 18, Early: 76, Style: Closer, Late: 114):

  • Strengths: G2 Fountain of Youth win (112) and G1 Florida Derby 2nd (113). Highest late pace (114) ensures strong close. Trainer Bill Mott (15% win) and jockey J. Alvarado (16% win) are reliable. Into Mischief pedigree excels on mud.
  • Concerns: Post 18 demands wide rally, risking energy loss. Slow starts (e.g., Street Sense) could hurt.
  • Outlook: Top contender, likely top 3 with clean trip.
  • Fast Track: Closer, top 3 lock. Sloppy Track: Into Mischief progeny thrives on mud; top 2 potential.

19. Chunk of Gold (30-1, Post 19, Early: 94, Style: Midpack, Late: 101):

  • Strengths: G2 Louisiana Derby 2nd (115) behind Tiztastic. Late pace (101) offers closing ability. Trainer E. West (12% win) and jockey J. Loveberry (14% win) are capable. Recent synthetic form (100) may translate.
  • Concerns: Only 1 win in 4 starts ($349K). Post 19 risks wide trip. Unproven on dirt at this level.
  • Outlook: Longshot for superfecta with clean trip.
  • Fast Track: Midpack, top 8-10. Sloppy Track: Preservationist progeny untested; top 10 at best.

20. Owen Almighty (30-1, Post 20, Early: 121, Style: Leader, Late: 76):

  • Strengths: G3 Tampa Bay Derby win (113) and G1 Blue Grass 6th (115). High early pace (121) ensures pace role. Trainer B. Lynch (16% win) and jockey J. Castellano (12% win) are solid.
  • Concerns: Post 20 forces wide trip or early effort to clear. Low late pace (76) suggests fade at 1 1/4 miles.
  • Outlook: Pace factor, likely fades to midpack. Use in exotics for speed.
  • Fast Track: Leader, top 8-10. Sloppy Track: Speightstown progeny decent on mud; top 6-8 potential.

Predictions (Fast Track)

Order of Finish (Top 5):

1. Journalism: Highest speed figures (121), strong late pace (116), and midpack style make him the horse to beat. Proven in G1 preps and benefits from fast pace.
2. Sovereignty: Elite closer (Late: 114) with G2 win and G1 placing. Post 18 is tough, but Mott’s expertise and Into Mischief pedigree ensure a big run.
3. Sandman: G1 Arkansas Derby win (118) and high late pace (112) suit Derby’s closing bias. Value at 6-1 with Ortiz aboard.
4. Burnham Square: G1 Blue Grass win (115) and improving Beyers (96 latest) make him a value play at 12-1. Late pace (114) fits pace meltdown.
5. Rodriguez: Baffert’s G2 Wood Memorial winner (119) with tactical speed (Early: 113). Post 4 and Smith’s ride keep him in top 5.

Longshot to Watch: Coal Battle (30-1) for superfecta; consistent form (112-114) and mud experience add value.

Alternate Predictions (Sloppy Track)

Order of Finish (Top 5):

1. Sovereignty: Into Mischief progeny thrives on mud, and late pace (114) overcomes post 18. G2 win (112) and Mott’s handling seal the deal.
2. Journalism: Curlin pedigree handles mud well, and high speed figures (121) keep him competitive. Midpack style navigates sloppy conditions.
3. Sandman: Tapit progeny excels on off tracks, and G1 win (118) with late pace (112) ensures a strong close.
4. Citizen Bull: Inside post 1 and Into Mischief mud pedigree boost chances. G1 wins (117-116) and early speed (113) suit front-running style.
5. Coal Battle: Proven muddy form (87 at Delta Downs) and G2 Rebel win (112). Tracker style (Early: 107) and post 16 manageable on mud.

Longshot to Watch: American Promise (30-1); Justify pedigree and sloppy work (:59.2) make him a superfecta candidate.

Wagering Strategies (Fast Track, $100 Budget)

1. Win/Place Bets ($30):

  • Journalism: $10 Win, $5 Place (3-1; favorite but reliable).
  • Sovereignty: $10 Win, $5 Place (5-1; strong closer, value).
  • Rationale: Covers top two contenders with high hit-board probability.

2. Exacta Box ($30):

  • Box Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman, Burnham Square ($2 Exacta Box, 12 combinations = $24).
  • Box Journalism, Sovereignty, Rodriguez ($2 Exacta Box, 6 combinations = $12, adjusted to $6).
  • Rationale: Captures top closers and tactical speed for balanced payouts.

3. Trifecta Key ($24):

  • Key Journalism, Sovereignty with Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman, Burnham Square, Rodriguez ($1 Trifecta, 1-2/1-2/1-5, 12 combinations = $12).
  • Key Journalism with Sovereignty, Sandman, Burnham Square, Rodriguez ($1 Trifecta, 1/2-5/2-5, 12 combinations = $12).
  • Rationale: Focuses on Journalism as win candidate, with value horses for third.

4. Superfecta Part-Wheel ($16):

  • Journalism, Sovereignty / Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman / Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman, Burnham Square, Rodriguez / Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman, Burnham Square, Rodriguez, Coal Battle ($0.10 Superfecta, 2/3/5/6, 180 combinations = $18, adjusted to $16 by reducing stake).
  • Rationale: Includes longshot Coal Battle for high-payout potential.

Wagering Strategies (Sloppy Track, $100 Budget)

1. Win/Place Bets ($30):

  • Sovereignty: $12 Win, $6 Place (5-1; mud pedigree shines).
  • Sandman: $8 Win, $4 Place (6-1; Tapit excels on sloppy tracks).
  • Rationale: Prioritizes mud specialists with closing ability.

2. Exacta Box ($30):

  • Box Sovereignty, Sandman, Journalism, Citizen Bull ($2 Exacta Box, 12 combinations = $24).
  • Box Sovereignty, Sandman, Coal Battle ($2 Exacta Box, 6 combinations = $6).
  • Rationale: Focuses on mud-proven horses, with Coal Battle for value.

3. Trifecta Key ($24):

  • Key Sovereignty, Sandman with Sovereignty, Sandman, Journalism, Citizen Bull, Coal Battle ($1 Trifecta, 1-2/1-2/1-5, 12 combinations = $12).
  • Key Sovereignty with Sandman, Journalism, Citizen Bull, Coal Battle ($1 Trifecta, 1/2-5/2-5, 12 combinations = $12).
  • Rationale: Sovereignty as win candidate, with mud runners for exotics.

4. Superfecta Part-Wheel ($16):

  • Sovereignty, Sandman / Sovereignty, Sandman, Journalism / Sovereignty, Sandman, Journalism, Citizen Bull, Coal Battle / Sovereignty, Sandman, Journalism, Citizen Bull, Coal Battle, American Promise ($0.10 Superfecta, 2/3/5/6, 180 combinations = $18, adjusted to $16 by reducing stake).
  • Rationale: Adds American Promise for muddy longshot potential.

Notes

  • Odds Check: Ensure Burnham Square (12-1+), Coal Battle (20-1+), and Tiztastic (15-1+) offer value for exotics. Avoid Journalism if odds drop below 2-1. Check live Kentucky Derby 2025 odds at KentuckyDerby.com
  • Post Positions: Outer posts (17-20) for Sandman, Sovereignty, Chunk of Gold, and Owen Almighty require clean trips or early moves to avoid wide losses.
  • International Runners: Admire Daytona and Luxor Cafe are wild cards due to missing pace data. Include in superfectas if odds exceed 20-1.
  • Also-Eligible (Baeza): If he draws in, his G1 SA Derby 2nd (119) and Tracker style make him a top 6 contender.