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Jerome Stakes 2026 Analysis, Picks, Free PPs

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The $150,000 Jerome Stakes kicks off the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby at Aqueduct on January 3, offering valuable qualifying points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale to the top five finishers—with only five horses entered every entrant will earn at least one point toward the Run for the Roses. This one-turn mile contest over the Big A main track draws a compact but talented field of five sophomores, several stepping up after promising juvenile campaigns. Highlights include Remsen (G2) third-place finisher Balboa, who should appreciate cutting back to a distance suiting his sprint-oriented strengths, and Nashua S. winner My World, undefeated in two starts at Aqueduct. Trainer Brad Cox, boasting a strong 27% win rate in ungraded stakes, eyes continued momentum with My World after his dominant pace-pressing score in the Nashua. Debut winner Enforced Agenda adds intrigue with reigning Eclipse Award jockey Flavien Prat aboard, while speedsters Mailata and Freedom’s Echo round out a competitive group primed for winter Derby trail breakthroughs.

Get Free PPs for the Jerome Stakes

We’ve been working on a new approach to the AnglePicks that involves shifting the spotlight to Expected Value (EV+) plays, powered by our advanced algorithm and a pari-mutuel-aware EV calculator that accounts for dynamic odds and late-money shifts. Unlike our traditional rankings, detailed selections, and multi-pronged wagering strategies, this new focus delivers precise model win probabilities for each horse, paired with realistic live EV estimates to highlight mathematically profitable bets—ensuring you wager with a proven edge for long-term success. Dive into our data-driven picks below and see how we’re redefining smart betting at the track.

EV+ Spotlight: Mathematically Profitable Opportunities

Our proprietary model, incorporating adjusted Apex Pulse Ratings, Elite Dominance Scores, pace projections, and track-specific factors, identifies potential overlays based on fair value odds vs. projected morning-line/public totals.

  • Balboa (ML est. 2-1): Model Win Prob. ~28% | Fair Value Odds: 5/2 | EV+ Potential: High if odds drift to 3-1 or higher – Strong Remsen effort suggests upside cutting back; elite class edge in small field.
  • Mailata (ML est. 3-1): Model Win Prob. ~25% | Fair Value Odds: 3-1 | EV+ Potential: Moderate – Tops in Apex Pulse Rating (95 last race) and Distance Mastery Figure; wire-to-wire threat if pace melts down.
  • My World (ML est. 5/2): Model Win Prob. ~22% | Fair Value Odds: 7/2 | EV+ Potential: Situational – Proven Aqueduct affinity; monitor for underlay risk given Cox barn heat.

Monitor tote board for late shifts—our calculator flags +EV when public overbets speed (Mailata/Freedom’s Echo) and undervalues closers/stalkers like Balboa.

Traditional Rankings & Detailed Selections

Power Rankings (based on composite of Elite Dominance Score, Prestige Tier Index, and adjusted figures):

  1. Balboa – Tops Elite Dominance Score (136.2); best overall form with graded stakes experience.
  2. Mailata – Leads Apex Pulse Rating (95 last); sharp recent works signal peak readiness.
  3. My World – Strong Prestige Tier Index (115.1); track specialist with tactical speed.
  4. Enforced Agenda – Promising debut winner over course/distance; upside with Prat.
  5. Freedom’s Echo – Solid maiden breaker but class jump tests limits.

Top Selection: #4 Balboa – Expect stalking trip off anticipated pace duel; projects to inherit lead turning for home.

Value Play: #5 Mailata – Speed holds if fractions moderate; sharp workouts indicate forward placement.

Multi-Pronged Wagering Strategies

  • Exacta Box ($1): 4-5-3
  • Trifecta Key ($0.50): 4 / 3-5 / 1-3-5 ($6)
  • Superfecta Part-Wheel ($0.10): 4 / 3-5 / 1-3-5 / 1-2-3-5 ($4.80)