J Boys Echo chance to upset in G2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland
J Boys Echo won’t enter the starting gate as the favorite on Saturday in the G2 $1 million Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. But he just might spring the upset.
Winner of only two of his five lifetime races, J Boys Echo was impressive in winning the G3 Gotham last time out when defeating the 2-5 favorite El Areeb over the Aqueduct inner.
To be fair, El Areeb may have been injured prior to or during the running of the Gotham as he’s now been knocked out of contention for the Kentucky Derby due to a bone chip in his right front knee, according to a Churchill Downs press release.
But let’s say he wasn’t injured during the race and he just had a bad day. Or better, let’s say he won the Gotham and he was going to go here in the Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday. And coming in off a five race win streak. Would he be favorite over undefeated McCraken? Probably so.
Of course, this is purely hypothetical. But any good handicapper knows that is the basis for picking winners. You have to create scenarios and “what if” cases.
What if McCraken’s ankle injury which caused him to miss the Tampa Derby was more than a minor setback? And given that he hasn’t been out in nearly two months will his connections push him to get this win? After all, he’s already in the Derby and that’s the real target. And one more thing to consider is that his trainer Wilkes was a paltry 4% at Keeneland last meet when Hernandez was aboard his runners.
And then there’s the $1.2 million yearling purchase, Tapwrit who lost his maiden opener at Saratoga last fall. But since then he’s reeled off two wins at Gulfstream after Pletcher added blinkers. And was second in the Sam Davis. In that one he was closer than he needed to be and was trapped down inside turning for home. McCraken rallied around the top two and was already a length clear by the time Ortiz was able to set him down for the drive. But in the Tampa Derby, they took him back off a slightly faster pace and he rolled home an easy winner.
But what if Tapwrit doesn’t like the Keeneland surface? He hasn’t worked over it. And the Tampa Derby field, without McCraken, was hardly a tough bunch.
And unless It’s Your Nickel is some kind of freak (and he just might be after that stellar performance over the synthetic at Turfway last time out in the Battaglia) the only one left to consider, as we make our way back to the beginning, is Practical Joke.
But if Gunnevera’s shoddy performance in the Florida Derby after an impressive win in the Fountain of Youth is any indication, Practical Joke’s true ability may fall short in here.
Which brings us back to J Boys Echo who holds this fields highest last race Beyer speed figure and an impressive maiden victory over the Keeneland surface last October. And together these two factors could put him over the top in the Blue Grass Stakes.
