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Grande, Rodriguez Scratched from 2025 Kentucky Derby: Impact
- Updated: May 2, 2025
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Kentucky Derby 2025: Grande and Rodriguez Scratched Due to Foot Bruises – What It Means for the Race
On the eve of the 151st Kentucky Derby, the field has been shaken by two significant scratches: Grande and Rodriguez, both sidelined due to foot bruises. Rodriguez, a Bob Baffert trainee and Wood Memorial winner, was scratched late on Thursday, allowing Baeza to draw into the field. On Friday morning, May 2, 2025, at 06:49 AM MDT, Churchill Downs announced Grande’s withdrawal, also citing a foot bruise. With Grande’s scratch coming too late for another horse to replace him, the Kentucky Derby field is now set at 19 horses for the May 3 race.
Announcement of Scratches
Rodriguez, a 12-1 morning-line contender, was withdrawn on May 1 after co-owner Tom Ryan announced via X that the colt had a “small but slightly sensitive foot bruise” requiring a few more days to heal. The decision, made “out of an abundance of caution,” shifted Rodriguez’s focus to the Preakness Stakes on May 17. Rodriguez, who won the Wood Memorial (G2) in wire-to-wire fashion, was expected to be a pace-setter, breaking from post 4 with jockey Mike Smith. His exit allowed Baeza, a 12-1 long shot trained by John Shirreffs, to draw into the field at post 20, bringing his Santa Anita Derby 2nd-place form into the mix.
This morning, Grande, a 20-1 contender trained by Todd Pletcher, was scratched due to a foot bruise, as announced by Churchill Downs’ Kevin Kerstein at 06:49 AM MDT. Grande, a son of Curlin owned by Repole Stable, earned his Derby spot with a runner-up finish in the Wood Memorial, 3 ½ lengths behind Rodriguez. Despite battling a “slight cracked heel” during the week, which owner Mike Repole claimed had been improving, and clean diagnostics (X-ray on Monday, PET scan on Thursday), regulatory veterinarians decided to scratch Grande. Repole expressed frustration on X, stating he was “baffled and confused” by the criteria used for scratches, especially after Forte’s 2023 Derby scratch under similar circumstances. With Grande’s withdrawal coming too late, no additional horses can enter, reducing the field to 19.
Updated Analysis: How the Scratches Impact the Race Dynamics
The absence of Rodriguez and Grande, both of whom figured to influence the pace, reshapes the race’s dynamics significantly.
- Pace Scenario Shift: Rodriguez was a confirmed front-runner, having won the Wood Memorial wire-to-wire with a 105 Brisnet speed figure. His scratch removes a key speed element, potentially softening the early pace. Grande, while more of a stalker, had tactical speed to sit just off the lead, as seen in his Wood Memorial 2nd, where he closed into modest fractions despite a wide trip. Without these two, the pace may favor other front-runners like Luxor Cafe (15-1, four straight wins in Japan), and Neoequos (now with Luis Saez aboard after Rodriguez’s scratch). However, a slower pace could also benefit stalkers like Render Judgment (post 15, 30-1) or Coal Battle, who can sit closer without as much early pressure.
- Field Size and Traffic: A 19-horse field, down from the maximum 20, slightly reduces the chaos of the Derby’s notorious traffic. This benefits closers like Admire Daytona (30-1, UAE Derby winner) and Sovereignty, who need clear running room to rally. Baeza, drawing in at post 20, also gains a slight edge with less congestion, though his outside post remains a challenge for a front-runner.
- Track Condition Concerns: With both scratches attributed to foot bruises, questions arise about Churchill Downs’ track surface and veterinary oversight during Derby week. Posts on X reflect sentiment that horses may face heightened scrutiny during this high-profile event, with some questioning whether these same horses would have run in a less spotlighted race like an allowance. Grande’s “slight cracked heel” and Rodriguez’s “sensitive foot bruise” suggest minor issues, yet the cautious approach by connections and vets underscores the Derby’s stakes. The track’s condition remains a factor, especially with potential rain in the forecast. Horses like Journalism (3-1 favorite, Santa Anita Derby winner) and Sandman, with proven dirt form, may hold an edge if the track turns wet.
What’s Next?
The 2025 Kentucky Derby, now with 19 horses, promises a fascinating battle. The absence of Rodriguez and Grande opens opportunities for front-runners like Neoequos and Luxor Cafe to control the pace, while closers like Admire Daytona and Sovereignty could capitalize on any fatigue. Baeza’s late entry adds a wildcard, but his inexperience makes him a riskier bet for the win. As the race approaches, keep an eye on track conditions—rain could further shift the dynamics, favoring horses with proven wet-track form like Journalism. Stay tuned for final updates as we approach the 6:57 PM ET post time on May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs.
