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Home / News / Grande’s Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Race Progression and Key Wins

Grande’s Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Race Progression and Key Wins

Kentucky Derby 2025 Horses Canva

Let’s dive into Grande’s race progression as he approaches the 2025 Kentucky Derby on May 3, 2025. Using his past performances (PPs) to analyze and evaluate his development and readiness for Churchill Downs, we’ll draw comparisons with other contenders we’ve discussed—like Flying Mohawk, American Promise, Publisher, East Avenue, Owen Almighty, Citizen Bull, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle, Final Gambit, Sovereignty, Tappan Street, Tiztastic, Rodriguez, Journalism, Sandman, and Burnham Square—for context.

Grande’s Race Progression

Grande, a 3-year-old colt by Curlin out of Journey Home, has competed in three races leading up to the Derby, showing rapid improvement with two wins and a strong stakes placing on dirt.

Promising Debut (January 11, 2025)

Grande debuted on January 11, 2025, at Gulfstream Park in a 1-mile maiden special weight on a fast dirt track, winning by 1 ½ lengths in 1:37.80. In an 8-horse field, he stalked 2 paths wide, bid on the turn, and drew clear, beating Camp Hale and Love’m Or Liam. His time of 1:37.80 is competitive for a debut, faster than Publisher’s 1:39.75 at the same distance on a sloppy track (April 22, 2025, 07:29), and his ability to take the lead and pull away shows early tactical speed, a trait common in Curlin progeny like Arcangelo, who also won his debut en route to the 2023 Belmont Stakes.

Allowance Dominance (February 27, 2025)

On February 27, 2025, Grande stepped up to an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park over 1 1/8 miles on a fast dirt track, winning by 1 ½ lengths in 1:50.04. In a 7-horse field, he raced 2-wide, took the lead by the half-mile pole, and was ridden out to beat Jimmy’s Dailys and Indecisiveness. His time matches Publisher’s Arkansas Derby second-place effort (April 22, 2025, 07:29), but Grande’s wire-to-wire style contrasts with Publisher’s closing run, showing versatility in pace scenarios. His ability to stretch out and dominate at 1 1/8 miles aligns with Curlin’s progeny excelling at longer distances, as seen with Journalism’s expected Derby favoritism (April 23, 2025, 09:56).

Stakes Breakthrough (April 5, 2025)

Grande’s latest race was the Wood Memorial (G2) on April 5, 2025, at Aqueduct over 1 1/8 miles on a fast dirt track, where he finished 2nd in 1:48.08. In a 10-horse field, he raced 4-5 wide on the first turn, made a mild bid in the stretch, and finished 1 ½ lengths behind Rodriguez, beating Passion Rules. This effort, as noted in his SEO snippet (April 23, 2025, 09:56), earned him 40 Derby points, bringing his total to 90 (including 50 from his allowance win). His time of 1:48.08 matches Rodriguez’s winning effort, as we discussed for Rodriguez’s progression (April 18, 2025, 05:01), and is the fastest 1 1/8-mile prep among contenders, beating American Promise’s 1:46.08 in the Virginia Derby, though that was on a smaller field (April 22, 2025, 07:29). Grande’s wide trip, noted by trainer Todd Pletcher, suggests he could improve with a cleaner run.

Analysis of Progression

Grande’s progression is impressive—he’s 2-for-3, with a second-place finish in his only stakes try, showing rapid development in a short career. His times reflect his front-running to mid-pack style: 1:37.80 at 1 mile and 1:48.08 to 1:50.04 at 1 1/8 miles. His Wood Memorial performance, despite a wide trip, demonstrates he can compete with top contenders, and his 90 Derby points secure his spot in the field, as we noted in the Kentucky Derby leaderboard discussion (March 23, 2025, 10:11).

Grande’s ability to handle distance and improve with each start mirrors Curlin’s own progression—he didn’t debut until February of his 3-year-old year but went on to win the Preakness. Grande’s lack of Churchill Downs experience is a slight concern compared to horses like Flying Mohawk (1-for-1 on turf there) or Publisher (two thirds on dirt there), but his dirt consistency gives him an edge over turf/synthetic runners like Flying Mohawk (April 23, 2025, 08:22).

Comparison to Other Contenders

Grande’s tactical speed aligns with American Promise, who won the Virginia Derby (1:46.08) with a front-running style but faded in tougher stakes (April 22, 2025, 07:29). Grande’s Wood Memorial second-place finish gives him a stronger stakes performance than American Promise’s 5th in the Risen Star. Rodriguez, who beat Grande in the Wood Memorial, has a similar speed profile but a cleaner trip, making him a tougher rival (April 18, 2025, 05:01). Closers like Flying Mohawk (Jeff Ruby Steaks, 1:50.50) and Publisher (Arkansas Derby, 1:50.04) could benefit if Grande faces a hot pace, as they’ve shown late kicks (April 23, 2025, 08:22; April 22, 2025, 07:29).

Burnham Square, with 130 Derby points and a Blue Grass Stakes win (1:51.09), and Sandman, with 104 points and wins in the Southwest and Arkansas Derby, have deeper resumes. Journalism, expected to be the Derby favorite after winning the Santa Anita Derby, showed resilience in a tight field, but his smaller-field win raises questions about the 20-horse Derby field, a concern Grande might also face given his wide trip in the Wood Memorial.

Looking Ahead to the Kentucky Derby

Grande enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby with a strong foundation—his pedigree, with Curlin’s classic-distance success and War Front’s versatility, suggests he can handle 1 1/4 miles (April 23, 2025, 09:56). Soul Search’s A.P. Indy influence adds stamina, as seen in his ability to stretch out to 1 1/8 miles. His Wood Memorial run shows he can compete at the top level, but his wide trip there highlights the importance of a clean run in the Derby’s larger field.

Track conditions could be a factor. Grande has only raced on fast dirt, so a sloppy track might test him. Curlin handled a sloppy track in the 2008 Dubai World Cup, suggesting Grande might adapt, but his lack of experience on off tracks is a question mark. A fast pace set by horses like Owen Almighty or American Promise could help Grande’s mid-pack style.

Grande’s consistency makes him a strong candidate for win and place bets, as well as exactas and trifectas. Pairing him with a closer like Flying Mohawk or Publisher could offer value if he holds for a top spot, especially if the pace is moderate. His limited starts make him a slight risk, but his upward trajectory suggests he’s peaking at the right time.