G1 Ashland Stakes 2025: Expert Picks and Wagering Strategies

Churchill Downs Home of the Kentucky Derby

TheFreePPs.com

Let’s dive into the G1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland on April 4, 2025, a 1 1/16-mile test for 3-year-old fillies with a $750,000 purse. This race is a key Kentucky Oaks prep, offering points (100-50-25-15-10) to the top five finishers. With eight contenders, we’ll analyze their past performances, assess their strengths, and craft wagering strategies based on the Brisnet data provided.

Race Overview

Distance: 1 1/16 miles (8.5 furlongs)
Surface: Dirt (Keeneland’s fast track)
PARS: E1 92, E2 99 / Late Speed 90, 99 (indicating a balanced pace with a slight edge to late speed)
Betting Options: $1 Double, $1 Exacta, $0.50 Trifecta, $0.10 Superfecta
Field Size: 8 fillies, all with graded stakes experience or competitive form

Contender Analysis

1. Look Forward (PP1, Gutierrez/McCarthy)

Prime Power: 134.5 (2nd)
Record: 4 starts, 2-1-0, $144,900 (Life); 2-1-0-0 in 2025
Best Speed: 95 (Starlet G2, 2nd)
Style: E/P 5 (stalker with tactical speed)
Strengths: Consistent performer with a win in the Santa Ynez (7f) and a close 2nd in the Starlet (1 1/16m). Sharp 5F workout (Mar-29) suggests readiness. Handles distance well, with a 95 speed figure dueling inside in the Starlet.
Concerns: Last out in the Honeybee (G3), she improved late (7th, 79 speed) but started slowly and faced trouble. Gutierrez’s 0% strike rate this meet is a red flag, though McCarthy’s 18% shipper stat is solid.
Fit: Proven at the distance, but needs a clean trip to contend.

2. La Cara (PP2, Davis/Casse)

Prime Power: 132.6 (5th)
Record: 8 starts, 3-2-0, $418,520 (Life); 2-1-1-0 in 2025
Best Speed: 93 (Suncoast, 1st)
Style: E/P 5 (versatile stalker)
Strengths: Three wins, including the Suncoast (1 1/16m), and a game 2nd in the Davona Dale (G2) last out. Casse’s 17% win rate and 44% in-the-money for 2024-25 are strong. Consistent speed figures (91-93 range) and a good effort in the BC Juvenile Fillies (5th, 80).
Concerns: Declining form in her last two (80, 86 speed) and failed as the favorite in the Davona Dale. Davis’s 6% win rate with Casse recently is lukewarm.
Fit: Experience and versatility make her a threat, but she needs to rebound.

3. Supa Speed (PP3, Rosario/Sadler)

Prime Power: 133.5 (3rd)
Record: 6 starts, 2-2-1, $134,100 (Life); 2-1-1-0 in 2025
Best Speed: 99 (Santa Ysabel G3, 2nd)
Style: S 4 (closer with late kick)
Strengths: Highest last-race speed (99) and best dirt speed in the field. Game 2nd in the Santa Ysabel (1 1/16m) as the favorite, battling to the wire. Rosario (16% win) and Sadler (18% win, 52% ITM) are a potent combo. Sharp 5F workout (Mar-28).
Concerns: Mostly turf experience (5 of 6 starts); only one dirt run (99 speed). Failed as the favorite last out, and Sadler’s 12% graded stakes stat is modest.
Fit: Late speed fits the PARS, and her dirt transition looks promising.

4. Muhimma (PP4, Prat/Cox)

Prime Power: 147.0 (1st)
Record: 4 starts, 3-0-1, $319,460 (Life); 1-0-0-1 in 2025
Best Speed: 94 (Demoiselle G2, 1st)
Style: E/P 7 (speedy stalker)
Strengths: Top Prime Power by a wide margin. Dominant 2024 (3-for-3), including the Demoiselle (1 1/8m) at 0.40 odds. Prat (23% win, 55% ITM) and Cox (27% win, 60% ITM) are elite. Sharp 4F workout (Mar-28).
Concerns: Disappointing 3rd in the Honeybee (G3) last out (88 speed) as the favorite, fading late. Only one 2025 start after a layoff.
Fit: Class and connections scream contender, but she must rediscover her 2024 form.

5. Running Away (PP5, Corrales/Ward)

Prime Power: 131.3 (6th)
Record: 4 starts, 2-1-1, $166,875 (Life); 1-1-0-0 in 2025
Best Speed: 88 (Busanda, 1st)
Style: E 8 (front-runner)
Strengths: Won the Busanda (1 1/8m) last out off a 49-day break, showing grit (88 speed). Ward’s 31% win rate off 46-90 days is a plus. Sharp 5F workout (Mar-28). Gun Runner progeny excel at this level.
Concerns: Steps up from a listed stakes; speed figures (86-88) lag the leaders. Corrales’s 11% route stat is average.
Fit: Pace presence could pressure the field, but class jump is a hurdle.

6. Take Charge Milady (PP6, Hernandez/McPeek)

Prime Power: 128.6 (7th)
Record: 5 starts, 2-1-0, $272,094 (Life); 3-2-0-0 in 2025
Best Speed: 87 (Martha Washington, 1st)
Style: E/P 4 (tactical speed)
Strengths: Hot form in 2025 (2-for-3), including the Martha Washington (1 1/16m) at 87 speed. McPeek’s 15% route stat and Hernandez’s 21% route win rate are solid. Sharp 4F workout (Mar-30).
Concerns: Poor 10th in the Honeybee (56 speed) last out, with traffic trouble. Speed figures (79-87) are below par for a G1.
Fit: Needs a big step up, but recent wins suggest potential.

7. Amarth (PP7, Saez/Kenneally)

Prime Power: 127.7 (8th)
Record: 5 starts, 2-1-0, $172,588 (Life); 1-0-1-0 in 2025
Best Speed: 88 (Busher Inv., 2nd)
Style: P 4 (midpack mover)
Strengths: Rallied for 2nd in the Busher (1m) last out (88 speed) at 23-1 odds, showing upside. Saez (16% win) is a boost.
Concerns: Speed figures (68-88) are low, and Kenneally’s 10% graded stakes stat is weak. Beaten by weaker foes in the Untapable (6th).
Fit: Longshot with closing ability, but outclassed on figures.

8. Admit (PP8, Ortiz/Drury)

Prime Power: 132.7 (4th)
Record: 6 starts, 2-1-2, $161,880 (Life); 3-1-1-1 in 2025
Best Speed: 86 (Cincinnati Trophy, 2nd)
Style: E/P 5 (stalker)
Strengths: Consistent 2025 form (1-1-1 in 3 starts) on AW, with a game 3rd in the Bourbonette Oaks (84 speed). Ortiz’s 33% route win rate is stellar. Dirt return could spark improvement.
Concerns: All wins on AW; dirt form is weaker (69 speed). Drury’s 0% graded stakes record is a glaring weakness.
Fit: Intriguing if she adapts to dirt, but unproven at this level.

Pace Scenario

Early Speed: Running Away (E 8) and Muhimma (E/P 7) should lead, with Look Forward (E/P 5), La Cara (E/P 5), and Take Charge Milady (E/P 4) pressing. Supa Speed (S 4) and Amarth (P 4) will close.
Projection: Moderate pace (E1 92, E2 99) favors stalkers and closers, per the late speed PARS (90, 99). A clean trip is critical at Keeneland’s tight turns.

Top Picks

Supa Speed (3) – Her 99 speed in the Santa Ysabel, late kick, and Rosario/Sadler combo make her the top choice. Dirt transition looks seamless.
Muhimma (4) – Despite the Honeybee flop, her class (147.0 Prime Power) and Prat/Cox edge scream bounce-back potential.
Look Forward (1) – Proven at the distance with a stalking style that fits. Needs Gutierrez to navigate traffic.
La Cara (2) – Experience and consistency keep her in the mix, though she must reverse her form dip.

Wagering Strategies

Win Bet: $10 on Supa Speed (3). Her speed and connections justify the play.
Exacta Box ($1): 3-4-1 ($6 total). Supa Speed, Muhimma, and Look Forward cover the top tiers.
Trifecta ($0.50): 3,4 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3,4,5 ($12 total). Keys Supa Speed and Muhimma over the next tier, adding Running Away as a pace wildcard.
Superfecta ($0.10): 3 / 4 / 1,2 / 1,2,5,6,8 ($1.20 total). Supa Speed to win, Muhimma 2nd, Look Forward/La Cara 3rd, and deeper closers underneath.

Final Thoughts

Supa Speed’s late speed and dirt upside make her the horse to beat, with Muhimma’s class looming large if she rebounds. Look Forward and La Cara are reliable for the exotics, while Running Away could surprise if she controls the pace. Focus on value with Supa Speed and box the top contenders for safety. Good luck!

NOTE: The analysis and predictions are for informational purposes only and there is no guarantee, implied or otherwise, for success using this prediction. Do your own research and wager responsibly. TheFreePPs.com nor any of its principals are responsible for any losses that may be incurred using this information.

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