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Florida Derby Analysis and Selections

Today’s G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream appears to be a match race between favorite Mohaymen who opens at even money, and 6 to 5 second choice Nyquist.

Both runners will the enter the starting gate for the 1 1/8 miles G1 event undefeated with the eventual winner earning 100 points towards a spot in the Derby on May 7 at Churchill.

Gun Runner currently sits atop the leaderboard with 151 points. See the current standings for all the top horses on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Florida Derby Analysis

  1. Sawyers Mickey – At 30 to 1 he’s a maiden who most recently ran in the $100K Battaglia at Turfway  going 1 1/16 on the all-weather for trainer Tom Amoss. Blinkers were added for the Battaglia and he turned in his best performance to date finishing 3rd at odds of 15 to 1 after steadying in the backstretch. He changes barns today and will race for trainer Peter Walder who is 19% winners at the meet. We’ve seen blinkers make stars out of nothing but he’ll have his hands full today.
  2. Fellowship – Faced Mohaymen in his last two and finished a respectable third in both outings at double digit odds. Has two wins from 10 starts and finished on the board in 7 races. Broke his maiden last May at Gulfstream going 4 1/2. His only distance win was from off the pace going 1 1/16 miles in a restricted race for Florida bred runners in October. Two seconds and two thirds since then. Earned a bullet best of 80 in a 4f move on March 19.
  3. Majesto – Broke maiden in last with Castellano who sticks for today after earning a career high 97 Beyer. He’s a son of multiple Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow so stamina shouldn’t be a problem to go the extra 1/16th. Sold for $300K at the Keeneland September yearling sale in ’14. Jockey/Trainer 33% success rate together. Looongshot.
  4. Nyquist – Undefeated in 6 lifetime starts and is the reigning 2YO Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ who comes in off an easy win in the G2 San Vicente earning a career best and field high 103 Beyer. Has earned $1.7 million for Reddam Racing LLC and trainer Doug O’Neil. This will be his toughest test to date having beaten Swipe in 4 of his last 5 races. Will be making his first start at GP. Hard to knock but there’s no value here.
  5. Copingaway – Not sure what to say. He has 1 win in 14 attempts for a trainer who is 0 for 48 at the meet and has never faced the likes of what he’ll face today. Can’t say enough negatives about him but this is horse racing and strange things sometimes happen.
  6. Chovanes – Broke maiden in last after being dropped into the claiming ranks by 30% trainer Navarro going 1 mile for $50K. Prior three races were pretty bad performances but did face Majesto two back finishing about 11 lengths behind him. Another who appears overmatched.
  7. Takeittotheedge – Has 1 win in 1 start winning his maiden outing by almost 8 lengths in a $50K maiden special. Earned a 95 which alone puts him atop several others with more experience, but will have to be some kind of runner to challenge the top two. Trainer Romans knows what he’s doing but wants to see if this guy has the goods to Takeittotheedge. Longshot.
  8. Fashionable Freddy – Hall of Fame trainer Zito knows how to win big races having won the Florida Derby three times in ’05 and then back to back wins with Ice Box in the 2010 Florida Derby and the 2011 running with Dialed In. This will be Freddy’s biggest test to date having only 1 win in 5 starts. Has three races over the track and is a consistent performer in the OC/NW1X type races. His the son of Tiznow and races for owner/breeder My Meadowview Farm at 30 to 1.
  9. Mohaymen – 2 for 2 at Gulfstream and 5 for 5 lifetime. Broke maiden at Belmont going 6f last September then went on a roll winning next 4 all G2’s including the Fountain of Youth in last. Jockey/Trainer 36% together but this is his first real test. Has the wins here to warrant favoritism over Nyquist and will be tough to beat.
  10. Isofass – Gets Lasix for the first time. Was third behind Pletcher runner Battery who finished last of 10 in the Louisiana Derby in prior. Leparoux gives him another shot off his career best 89 Beyer performance last time out and will be hard sent from the outside post. 30 to 1 and rightfully so.

Florida Derby Selections

Selections: 9 – 4 – 3

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