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Home / News / Florida Derby 2025 Picks: Handicapping with TimeformUS PPs

Florida Derby 2025 Picks: Handicapping with TimeformUS PPs

horse race handicapping algorithm Generative AI

Using the free TimeformUS Past Performances (PPs) for the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, Race 14, on March 29, 2025, we asked AI to handicap and make a prediction of the outcome. With a field of 10 3-year-olds running 1 1/8 miles on dirt in this Grade 1 Kentucky Derby prep, I’ll analyze the contenders using the TimeformUS tools—Speed Figures, Pace Figures, Pace Projector, Running Styles, and more—to handicap and predict the outcome. Let’s break it down step-by-step.

For comparison, here is the analysis using the free DRF Formulator PPs for the 2025 Florida Derby.

Step 1: Race Overview

  • Distance/Surface: 1 1/8 miles, dirt (9 furlongs), a two-turn test of stamina and tactical ability.
  • Purse/Status: Grade 1 Florida Derby, a key Derby prep with a history of producing contenders like Forte (2023).
  • Track Condition: Fast, no significant bias noted (neutral assumption unless PPs suggest otherwise).
  • Post Time: 6:42 PM ET.

Step 2: Pace Projector Analysis

The TimeformUS Pace Projector labels this a “Fast Pace” scenario, with the following early order at the half-mile mark:

  • Leaders: #1 Neoequos (Early: 120, Leader), #4 Disruptor (Early: 118, Speed), #6 Jimmy’s Dailys (Early: 105, Speed).
  • Trackers: #8 Madaket Road (Early: 111, Tracker), #9 Tappan Street (Early: 94, Tracker).
  • Midpack/Closers: #2 Cool Intentions (Early: 92, Tracker), #5 Indecisiveness (Early: 85, Midpack), #3 Smoken Boy (Early: 85, None), #7 Enterdadragon (Early: 73, Closer), #10 Sovereignty (Early: 73, Closer).

Interpretation: Three speed horses (Neoequos, Disruptor, Jimmy’s Dailys) suggest a hot early pace (e.g., :46.5 for 4f, :1:10 for 6f), which could set up for closers or tactical trackers if the leaders duel and fade.

Step 3: Contender Analysis

#1 Neoequos (10-1, Early: 120, Late: 56, Spotlight: 115)

  • Last Race: Fountain of Youth (G2, 1 1/16m), 3rd, 115 Speed Figure. Paced 3-2 paths, yielded late but held show.
  • Strengths: High Early Rating (120) and a win wire-to-wire at 6f (98). Ran a competitive 115 in a key prep.
  • Weaknesses: Low Late Rating (56) and faded in routes (e.g., 108 at 7f after a fast pace). Unproven at 9f.
  • Trainer/Jockey: Joseph/Zayas (96/95 ratings), solid at Gulfstream.
  • Outlook: Likely pacesetter, but the “Fast Pace” projection and weak Late Rating suggest a fade. Possible show contender if unchallenged early.

#4 Disruptor (4-1, Early: 118, Late: 61, Spotlight: 113)

  • Last Race: Maiden win (7f), 113 Speed Figure. Chased, led at 1/4, drew off impressively.
  • Strengths: High Early Rating (118), strong Pace Figures (122 at 2f, 119 at 4f), and a 113 debut win. Pletcher/Ortiz combo (91/92) is elite.
  • Weaknesses: Low Late Rating (61), caught late in prior start (101). Only two races, untested at 9f.
  • Outlook: Speed threat with Neoequos, but stamina is a question. Could wire it if pace softens, but likely fades.

#6 Jimmy’s Dailys (12-1, Early: 105, Late: 58, Spotlight: 105)

  • Last Race: Allowance (1 1/8m), 2nd, 105 Speed Figure. Set pace, collared at 3/8, held well.
  • Strengths: Proven at 9f, solid Early Rating (105), and a maiden win at 102. Pace Figures (110 at 4f) show front-end ability.
  • Weaknesses: Low Late Rating (58), outfinished in routes. Lynch/Rosario (83/35) less inspiring.
  • Outlook: Adds to early pace but lacks closing kick. Possible minor award if others collapse.

#8 Madaket Road (7-2, Early: 111, Late: 80, Spotlight: 113)

  • Last Race: Rebel (G2, 1 1/16m), 2nd, 113 Speed Figure. Paced, led backstretch, outkicked late.
  • Strengths: High Early Rating (111), competitive Speed Figures (117, 113), and a win at 108. Baffert/Smith (100/84) is a powerhouse.
  • Weaknesses: Flattened in G3 (108) and faded late in Rebel. Late Rating (80) decent but not elite.
  • Outlook: Tactical speed suits a tracking trip. Major player if he sits off the pace and kicks.

#9 Tappan Street (5-1, Early: 94, Late: 116, Spotlight: 114)

  • Last Race: Holy Bull (G3, 1 1/16m), 2nd, 114 Speed Figure. Bid 3wd, led 5/16 to 1/16, caught late.
  • Strengths: High Late Rating (116), strong 114 in G3, and a maiden win at 108. Cox/Saez (100/100) is top-tier.
  • Weaknesses: Moderate Early Rating (94) means he’ll need a setup. Only two starts.
  • Outlook: Closer who thrives off a fast pace. Prime contender with room to improve.

#10 Sovereignty (8-5, Early: 73, Late: 108, Spotlight: 114)

  • Last Race: Fountain of Youth (G2, 1 1/16m), 1st, 114 Speed Figure. Off pace, surged late to win by a neck.
  • Strengths: High Late Rating (108), back-to-back wins (114, 106), and a 107 at 1m. Mott/Franco (73/48) reliable.
  • Weaknesses: Low Early Rating (73) requires a hot pace and clear path. Slow starts in past (e.g., 98 at 6f).
  • Outlook: Favorite with proven closing ability. Loves this distance and track. Top win threat.

Longshots to Note

  • #2 Cool Intentions (20-1, Spotlight: 97): Allowance win at 96, but 97 Spotlight and 74 Late Rating suggest he’s outclassed.
  • #3 Smoken Boy (30-1, Spotlight: 92): Allowance 92, but 88 Late Rating and weak Gulfstream form (5% trainer) limit him.
  • #5 Indecisiveness (30-1, Spotlight: 101): Allowance 3rd at 101, but 78 Late Rating and 73 trainer rating scream toss.
  • #7 Enterdadragon (30-1, Spotlight: 102): Turf closer (Late: 103), dirt 85 last out. Wrong surface, unlikely.

Step 4: Pace Scenario

  • Early Pace: Neoequos (#1), Disruptor (#4), and Jimmy’s Dailys (#6) vie for the lead. Pace Figures (120, 118, 105 Early) and the “Fast Pace” label suggest a duel—possibly :23.2, :46.5, :1:10.
  • Mid-Race: Madaket Road (#8) tracks 2-3 lengths off in 3rd/4th. Tappan Street (#9) and Sovereignty (#10) sit mid-pack, 5-8 lengths back.
  • Stretch: Speed burns out by the 6f mark. Madaket Road takes over, but Tappan Street and Sovereignty close hard.

Step 5: Prediction

  • Winner: #10 Sovereignty (8-5) – Proven closer with a 114 in the Fountain of Youth at this track. Late Rating (108) and Mott’s hot form (19% last 21-35 days) seal it. The fast pace sets up his rally perfectly.
  • 2nd: #9 Tappan Street (5-1) – Late Rating (116) and a strong Holy Bull (114) make him a threat. Cox’s 100 rating and Saez’s aggression keep him close.
  • 3rd: #8 Madaket Road (7-2) – Tactical speed (Early: 111) and Baffert’s class (113 Rebel) get him a piece, but Late Rating (80) limits him against closers.
  • 4th: #4 Disruptor (4-1) – High Early Rating (118) and 113 maiden win give him a shot to hang on, but 61 Late Rating suggests a fade.

Final Time: Around 1:48.5-1:49, yielding Speed Figures of 114-116 for the top two.

Step 6: Betting Strategy

  • Win: #10 Sovereignty – Short price (8-5), but the pace and form align.
  • Exacta: 10 over 9 – Sovereignty over Tappan Street for value.
  • Trifecta: 10-9 over 9-10 over 8-4 – Keys the top closers with Madaket Road and Disruptor underneath.
  • Superfecta: 10-9-8-4 – Small play on the top four for a bigger payout ($1 = $1).

Final Thoughts

Sovereignty’s closing kick off a fast pace makes him the horse to beat, with Tappan Street as the upside play if he peaks third off the layoff. Madaket Road’s tactical edge keeps him in the mix, while Disruptor could surprise if the pace isn’t as hot as projected. The speed horses (Neoequos, Jimmy’s Dailys) should falter late.