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Final Gambit’s Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Race Progression and Key Wins
- Updated: April 25, 2025
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Final Gambit’s Race Progression
Final Gambit, a 3-year-old colt by Not This Time out of Pachinko, has competed in four races leading up to the Derby, showing a trajectory of improvement but with some significant question marks due to his surface preferences.
Debut on Turf (November 9, 2024)
Final Gambit debuted on November 9, 2024, at Churchill Downs in a 1-mile maiden special weight on turf, finishing 3rd in 1:37.75. He was taken up at the start, trailed early, and rallied 5-wide in the upper stretch to gain late, finishing behind Maui Strong and Plensa in a 12-horse field. This debut showed his ability to close, a trait likely inherited from his dam’s sire Tapit, whose progeny often excel at middle distances (e.g., Essential Quality, a Belmont Stakes winner). The time of 1:37.75 on turf is decent but slower than some dirt maiden wins we’ve seen—like Rodriguez’s 1:35.80 at 1 mile on dirt (January 4, 2025)—and his late rally suggests he needed more pace to close into, a potential concern for the Derby if the early fractions are slow.
Switch to Synthetic and First Loss (January 4, 2025)
Final Gambit moved to the synthetic Tapeta surface at Turfway Park for his next start on January 4, 2025, finishing 2nd in a 1-mile maiden special weight in 1:39.04. He chased the leader, Pnutbutter Whiskey, throughout but couldn’t pass, finishing 1 length back in a 12-horse field. This performance showed he could handle a larger field and a new surface, but his inability to close the gap despite a good stalking position hints at a lack of late speed at this stage. The time of 1:39.04 is slower than his turf debut when adjusted for surface differences (synthetic typically runs slower than turf), indicating he was still developing his finishing kick.
Maiden Breakthrough (February 15, 2025)
On February 15, 2025, Final Gambit returned to Turfway Park for another 1-mile maiden special weight on synthetic, this time winning by 1 length in 1:40.75. Starting near the back in an 11-horse field, he made a deft move at the quarter pole to take the lead, clearing Bermuda Triangle and Guy Smiley. This win was a step forward—he showed improved tactical speed and the ability to rally from off the pace, a trait we’ve seen benefit closers like Sovereignty in the Florida Derby (March 29, 2025, 09:15). However, the time of 1:40.75 is notably slower than other maiden wins on dirt—like Tappan Street’s 1:23.08 at 7 furlongs—and the synthetic surface makes it hard to compare directly to Derby contenders who have primarily raced on dirt.
Stakes Victory on Synthetic (March 22, 2025)
Final Gambit’s most recent race was the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on March 22, 2025, at Turfway Park over 1 1/8 miles on synthetic, where he won by 1 ½ lengths in 1:50.08. Despite being bumped and bothered at the start in a 12-horse field, he rallied from 12th to 1st, passing Flying Mohawk and Maximum Promise with a strong late run. This performance, as we noted when discussing the Kentucky Derby leaderboard (March 23, 2025, 10:11), earned him significant points (likely 50, typical for a G3 prep), securing his spot in the Derby field. The time of 1:50.08 is slower than other 1 1/8-mile preps—like Tappan Street’s 1:49.16 in the Florida Derby or Rodriguez’s 1:48.08 in the Wood Memorial—but his ability to overcome trouble and close strongly in a larger field is a positive sign for the Derby’s chaotic 20-horse field.
Analysis of Progression
Final Gambit’s progression shows a horse who started slowly but has improved with each start, winning his last two races after placing in his first two. He’s won 2 of 4 starts, with 1 second and 1 third, demonstrating consistency. His times have been slower than other contenders—1:37.75 on turf, 1:39.04 and 1:40.75 on synthetic at 1 mile, and 1:50.08 on synthetic at 1 1/8 miles—but this is partly due to the surfaces he’s raced on. Synthetic tracks like Turfway Park’s Tapeta typically produce slower times than dirt, and his turf debut aligns with his pedigree’s versatility (Not This Time’s sire Giant’s Causeway excelled on turf in Europe).
His running style as a closer, seen in his Jeff Ruby Steaks rally, is a strength for the Derby, where a fast early pace often sets up late runners, as we’ve noted with closers like Sovereignty and Journalism.
Concerns
Final Gambit has never raced on dirt—all his starts have been on turf or synthetic—raising questions about how he’ll handle Churchill Downs’ dirt surface. His Churchill Downs experience (3rd on turf) gives him some familiarity with the track, but the surface switch is a gamble. Additionally, his times, even adjusted for surface, are slower than top contenders like Rodriguez (1:48.08 at 1 1/8 miles on dirt) and Tappan Street (1:49.16), suggesting he may lack the raw speed to keep up if the Derby pace is hot.
Comparison to Other Contenders
Final Gambit’s closing style aligns with Sovereignty, who we’ve noted as a strong late runner (2nd in the Florida Derby in 1:49.16). However, Sovereignty’s dirt wins (Fountain of Youth in 1:43.08) and Churchill Downs experience on dirt (Street Sense Stakes in 1:43.75) give him a clear edge over Final Gambit, who’s untested on the surface. Tappan Street, who beat Sovereignty in the Florida Derby, has a faster 1:49.16 at 1 1/8 miles and a mid-pack style that might help him navigate traffic better than Final Gambit in the Derby field. Rodriguez, with his front-running 1:48.08 Wood Memorial win, could set a pace that benefits Final Gambit’s closing kick, as we’ve seen in hypothetical Derby scenarios where speed horses like Citizen Bull set up closers.
Compared to Tiztastic, who won the Louisiana Derby in a slower 1:56.16 over 1 3/16 miles, Final Gambit’s 1:50.08 at 1 1/8 miles on synthetic is more competitive when adjusted for distance, but Tiztastic’s dirt experience (2nd and 3rd at Churchill Downs) gives him an advantage. Journalism’s 1:49.25 Santa Anita Derby win and 4-for-5 record make him a tougher rival, especially since he’s proven on dirt and overcome trouble. Sandman, with his Arkansas Derby win in 1:50.08 on dirt, also has more experience (8 starts) and a faster dirt time, putting Final Gambit at a disadvantage.
Looking Ahead to the Kentucky Derby
Final Gambit enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a wildcard with potential but significant risks. His closing style and ability to rally in a 12-horse field in the Jeff Ruby Steaks suggest he can handle the Derby’s 20-horse chaos, and his Churchill Downs experience (albeit on turf) is a plus. His pedigree—Not This Time’s versatility and Tapit’s stamina, with Giant’s Causeway’s class—supports his ability to handle 1 1/4 miles, especially as a closer. However, his lack of dirt experience is a major concern. Not This Time’s progeny like Epicenter have excelled on dirt, but Final Gambit’s synthetic and turf form leaves his dirt performance an open question. Tapit’s 0-for-14 Derby record at Churchill Downs, as we’ve noted with Tiztastic and Sandman, adds another layer of doubt.
Track conditions could be critical. His success on synthetic and turf suggests he might prefer a firmer surface, but if the Derby track is sloppy, his untested dirt form could be a liability.
Final Gambit’s profile as a closer makes him a candidate for exotic bets like exactas and trifectas. Pairing him with a speed horse like Rodriguez or Citizen Bull could offer value if he can rally late, but his dirt uncertainty makes him a riskier play for win bets.
