Pago Hop Stakes: Odds, Analysis, WizCapper Picks

By WIZCAPPER
Updated: December 30, 2016

Fair Grounds Race Course, New Orleans, Louisiana

The Pago Hop Stakes will go as the 8th race on the New Year’s Eve card at Fair Grounds on Saturday

This is a 1 mile race for three year old fillies running for a purse of $75,000 on the Stall Wilson turf course but keep in mind that there’s a chance of rain in New Orleans tomorrow.

See Brisnet Sire PPs and click on “More Than Ready” to get the past performances for this race.

The field for the Pago Hop Stakes

Here’s the field of 14 entered for the Pago Hop by post position:

School Board Prez – 20 to 1. Comes in from home base at Hawthorne where she’s been working up a storm for this start. Two of six lifetime wins have come on turf at longer distances but has never beaten open company.
Most Beautiful – 5 to 1. Only two lifetime wins came in ’15 as a 2 year-old in Ireland. Started first race in the states at 4 to 1 in a 6f inner turf try at Belmont and finished 4th beaten a length while 1st time Lasix. Came back with a good 3rd place showing in the G3 Ken Maddy at Santa Anita last month going 6 1/2 down the hillside. Interesting that they’ve had this horse at Tampa for training. Comes in for good connections and looks the part to get the distance on the drop.
Ready for Chianti – 12 to 1. Broke maiden here in February going 1 1/16 miles on the turf in a MSW. Raced all summer in AlwNW1X company on the turf at Churchill without success. Put on the shelf until early last month and returned as the favorite to get the nod at Churchill under same conditions. Steps up but not out of the question.
Nobody’s Fault – 12 to 1. 2 for 5 in turf tries lifetime. Broke maiden at first asking going 1 mile at Arlington. A next out winner of an AlwNW1x a month later in Chicago. Was 12th beaten just 5 lengths in the G2 Pucker Up in August then got into some trouble at 70 to 1 in the G3 Valley View at Keeneland but still finished 5th just 7 lengths behind the winner. Second and third place finishers from that one came back to score. However, this miss returned here on Dec. 1 in an OC$40kNW2x at 2 to 1 and was 5th.
Always Right – 12 to 1. Two wins at the distance on the turf including a score here on Thanksgiving weekend in an AlwNW1x for $40k. Third place horse came back to win next outing. Worst turf tries were at longer distances facing off against Ready for Chianti at Churchill in the summer. Was second in first career race here in January and returned to finish third the following month on the grass. Steps up for this but connections know how to win.
La Peregrina – 12 to 1. Broke maiden in July at Monmouth going 1 mile on ‘good’ turf before a tiring try at Saratoga in the summer for Pletcher. Indiana bred won back-to-back turf tests in home state – both on ‘good’ going. Was 4th last time out here in the same race as Nobody’s Fault with Albarado who know defects to ride Most Beautiful for Proctor. In the capable hands of local trainer Amoss and California journeyman Flores.
Motown Lady – 12 to 1. Kentucky bred comes in from Canada where she’s shown pretty decent effort in six tries. Nine career starts and only 1 win which came on the all-weather . Started career at Tampa earlier this year. Gets Lasix for the 1st time.
Gianna’s Dream – 4 to 1. Oklahoma bred is a six-time winner who was claimed for $25k in the summer at Saratoga. Returned in a 1 mile inner turf event at the Spa for twice the price and won easily on the lead every step. Took back to back stakes races at Remington vs. state breds on the turf as the heavy favorite before a third place finish last time out at Aqueduct going 1 1/16 on the turf at long odds. Gets top jock in Geroux and will appreciate the cut back.
Frozen Hannah – 12 to 1. Exits winning effort in a $50k tag for NW3L on the turf at Belmont when leading all the way. Takes a big step up despite facing runners with less wins. Never liked runners who did well in New York coming south for the winter but horse did break maiden here going 5 1/2 in the slop in March.
Princess Erindelle – 20 to 1. Clipped heels in the race here on Dec. 1 and finished 7 lengths back in 6th. That was going 1 1/16 miles and will like the cut back to 1 mile. Started career on the turf at Arlington in Sept. ’15. Was second that day and in three subsequent races here in ’15 – ’16 before finally getting the nod in the LaCombe in March. Soft going and fast fractions up front will help this miss close late but may be too late for the win.
Inconclusive – 20 to 1. Seems like an overlay at first glance as this gal has faced stakes company all year long. Won here in January at this distance on the turf in an OC50KNW1x with Mena. Has been away for more than 3 months and returns for 26% trainer and 16% jockey who can light up the board. Soft going to her liking.
Believe in Bertie – 3 to 1. Field favorite off a near 6 length win in a Louisiana bred OC$20kNW2x here on Thanksgiving weekend at extremely short odds. Broke maiden first time out at Saratoga on the turf going 1 1/6 miles. Was second by a head in AlwNW1x next out at Keeneland before being over matched in the G3 Edgewood won by CatchaGlimpse. Came back to earth vs. state breds at Evangeline in June over the slop and finished second before winning a 1 mile turf stakes the following month in Lafayette. Good connections and plenty of positives except for the fact that she’s going against open company today.
Pancake – 30 to 1. After two decent efforts here in February and March when she swapped victories with Princess Erindelle in back to back stakes, she regressed throughout the remainder of the year at Gulfstream. Returns to New Orleans where they hope to get her back on track but will really need to turn things around fast.
Mom’s On Strike – 8 to 1. Is the sleeper and could be the spoiler in here despite having only 1 career win when breaking maiden at Oaklawn going 1 1/16 miles on the dirt in April. Returned at Pimlico in the G2 Black Eyed Susan finishing just 3 lengths behind Go Maggie Go. Stepped up big time in the G1 Mother Goose in July at long odds before a fast closing second on the turf at 50 to 1 in the Pebbles at Belmont when beating the current favorite by nearly 3 lengths. Bertie already won her comeback race out the Pebbles and this miss has been working well for her return off two month layoff. Draws wide again but gets top turf rider in Graham.