Burnham Square’s Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Race Progression and Key Wins

By WIZCAPPER
Updated: April 25, 2025

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Analyzing Burnham Square’s pedigree, the Equibase past performances (PPs), and relevant handicapping knowledge, let’s chronicle his development through his race record and evaluate his readiness for the May 3, 2025, Kentucky Derby.

Burnham Square’s Race Progression: Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby

Burnham Square, a bay gelding by Liam’s Map out of Linda (by Scat Daddy), owned by Whitham Thoroughbreds and trained by Ian Wilkes, has emerged as the 2025 Kentucky Derby points leader with 130 points. His journey from a maiden claiming debut to a Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes victory showcases steady improvement, tactical versatility, and a closing style suited for Churchill Downs’ 1 ¼-mile test.

Race-by-Race Progression:

Debut: October 26, 2024, Keeneland, 6F Maiden Claiming ($150,000), 2nd (Equibase Speed Figure: ~80, estimated)

Performance: In his first start, Burnham Square ran in a maiden claiming race, a modest beginning for a future Derby contender. He broke erratically, made an eight-wide bid late, and finished second by a half-length in a 12-horse field. Trainer Ian Wilkes noted his rawness, describing him as “very green” and prone to mistakes.

Analysis: This debut showed promise but highlighted his inexperience. His late rally suggested stamina, but his erratic running prompted Wilkes to consider equipment changes (blinkers were later added). Compared to Sovereignty, who debuted with a win at Churchill Downs, Burnham Square’s start was less polished but hinted at potential.

November 30, 2024, Churchill Downs, 1 1/16M Maiden Special Weight, 3rd (Equibase: ~85)

Performance: Stretched to two turns, Burnham Square rallied to finish third in a 10-horse field, beaten by 2 lengths. Wilkes noted he “wouldn’t run early” but surged late, passing rivals 50 yards past the wire, indicating he needed focus.

Analysis: His first try at a route distance confirmed his staying ability, but his sluggish start underscored the need for blinkers, which Wilkes added for his next start. This effort aligns with Final Gambit’s early races, where consistency preceded a breakout. Burnham Square’s Churchill Downs experience is a plus for the Derby.

December 28, 2024, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/16M Maiden Special Weight, 1st (Equibase: 97)

Performance: With blinkers added and Edgard Zayas aboard, Burnham Square dominated, winning by 9 lengths in a 10-horse field. He took command early and drew off, clocking 1:43.88.

Analysis: This breakout win showcased the impact of blinkers, giving him confidence and bravery, per Wilkes. The 97 Equibase figure was a leap forward, comparable to Tappan Street’s 90 in his Gulfstream maiden win. His ability to control the pace hinted at versatility, setting the stage for stakes competition.

February 1, 2025, Gulfstream Park, Holy Bull Stakes (G3), 1 1/16M, 1st (Equibase: 99)

Performance: Stepping into graded stakes, Burnham Square won the Holy Bull by 1 ¾ lengths over Tappan Street, earning 20 Derby points. He rallied from off the pace, advancing inside, and finished in 1:43.44, showing professionalism.

Analysis: This victory stamped him as a Derby contender, outdueling Tappan Street, who later won the Florida Derby. His 99 Equibase figure was strong, though slightly below Journalism’s 102 in the Wood Memorial. His off-the-pace style suited the Holy Bull’s moderate tempo, but he proved he could handle pressure, unlike Rodriguez, whose early speed faded in later preps.

March 1, 2025, Gulfstream Park, Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), 1 1/16M, 4th (Equibase: 92)

Performance: As the favorite, Burnham Square disappointed, finishing 4th, beaten 3 lengths by winner Sovereignty. He was passed on the final turn but rallied willingly late, suggesting he didn’t fire his best shot. Time was 1:43.77.

Analysis: This was his only off-the-board finish, likely due to a flat effort or Sovereignty’s strong pace. His 92 figure was a dip, similar to Tiztastic’s hiccup before the Louisiana Derby. The performance raised questions about his consistency against top closers like Sovereignty, but his stretch effort showed resilience.

April 8, 2025, Keeneland, Blue Grass Stakes (G1), 1 1/8M, 1st (Equibase: 104)

Performance: With Brian Hernandez Jr. replacing Zayas, Burnham Square delivered a career-best, rallying from last in a 7-horse field to nose out pacesetter East Avenue in 1:51.33. His five-wide sweep and final 3/8 in :38.77 earned a 104 Equibase figure and 100 Derby points, securing the leaderboard top spot (130 total).

Analysis: This last-to-first triumph, despite a slow overall time (slowest Blue Grass since 2007), highlighted his closing power and ability to overcome trouble (bumped at the start). His 104 figure matches Sandman’s Arkansas Derby peak, and his 96 Beyer Speed Figure (up 5 points) signals improvement. Compared to Journalism’s Santa Anita Derby win (1:49.25, smaller field), Burnham Square’s effort in a tougher spot bodes well for the Derby’s 20-horse chaos.

Recent Workouts:

April 15, 2025, Keeneland: 5F bullet in :59.80, sharp and focused.
April 19, 2025, Churchill Downs: 4F in :49.40, described as “maintenance-like” but rank early, with a strong gallop-out (6F in 1:15.78).
Analysis: These works confirm he’s maintaining form, though his rankness suggests Wilkes is fine-tuning his focus. Compared to Sovereignty’s strong 5F breeze (1:00.93, out 6F in 1:13.20), Burnham Square’s workouts are competitive but less explosive.

Running Style and Derby Fit:

Style: Burnham Square is a deep closer, conserving energy early and unleashing a sustained rally over the final 3/8 mile. His Blue Grass win (last to first, passing 4 horses late) and Holy Bull rally show he thrives when chasing a fast pace.
Derby Suitability: The Kentucky Derby’s 1 ¼-mile distance and large field favor closers who can navigate traffic. His pedigree—Liam’s Map (Unbridled’s Song stamina) and Linda (Scat Daddy, dam of Justify)—is tailor-made for 10 furlongs, as we discussed in our pedigree analysis. His Churchill Downs experience (3rd in November 2024) and Hernandez’s local expertise (2024 Derby winner with Mystik Dan) are assets. However, closers face risks in a 20-horse field, as traffic or a slow pace could hinder him, a concern also noted for Sovereignty.

Comparisons to Other Contenders:

Sovereignty (110 points): Sovereignty bested Burnham Square in the Fountain of Youth, but Burnham Square’s Blue Grass win (104 vs. Sovereignty’s 95 in the Florida Derby) suggests he’s peaking faster. Both are closers, but Sovereignty’s wider Florida Derby trip indicates he needs a cleaner run.
Tappan Street (110 points): Burnham Square defeated Tappan Street in the Holy Bull, but Tappan Street’s Florida Derby win (96 figure) shows he’s closed the gap. Tappan Street’s stalking style may give him a positional edge in the Derby.
Journalism (80 points): Journalism’s Santa Anita Derby win (102 figure) and 4-for-5 record make him a favorite, but his smaller-field success raises questions about the Derby’s chaos, where Burnham Square’s Blue Grass traffic-handling shines.
Sandman (129 points): Sandman’s front-running Arkansas Derby win (104 figure) contrasts with Burnham Square’s closing style. A hot pace set by Sandman could set up Burnham Square’s rally, as seen in the Blue Grass.
Tiztastic (119 points): Tiztastic’s Louisiana Derby win (99 figure) and Churchill experience are strong, but his slower times compared to Burnham Square’s 104 figure put him a step behind.

Strengths for the Derby:

Peaking Form: His 104 Equibase figure and 96 Beyer in the Blue Grass mark career highs, with a 10-point Equibase jump from his prior start.
Pedigree: Liam’s Map’s stamina (Unbridled lineage) and Scat Daddy’s classic influence (Justify) ensure he’ll handle 1 ¼ miles.
Experience: Six starts, including a Churchill run and two graded wins, make him seasoned. Hernandez’s Derby savvy is a major plus.
Closing Kick: His final 3/8 times (:37.63 in Holy Bull, :38.77 in Blue Grass) show he can pass horses late, ideal for Churchill’s long stretch.

Concerns:

Traffic Risk: As a deep closer, he’s vulnerable to traffic in a 20-horse field, especially if his momentum is checked, as we noted for closers generally.
Sire’s Turf Lean: Liam’s Map’s progeny often excel on grass, raising slight doubts about dirt stamina, though Burnham Square’s dirt wins (Holy Bull, Blue Grass) counter this.
Fountain of Youth Flop: His 4th-place finish suggests he can misfire against elite closers like Sovereignty, requiring a perfect trip.
Slow Blue Grass Time: The 1:51.33 was the slowest Blue Grass since 2007, potentially inflating his figure relative to faster preps like the Santa Anita Derby (1:49.25).

Derby Outlook:
Burnham Square enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a top-tier contender, likely among the top 5 betting choices at 12-1 early odds. His closing style, improving speed figures, and stout pedigree make him a prime candidate to hit the board, especially if Sandman or Honor Marie set a fast pace. His Blue Grass win over East Avenue and River Thames proves he can handle graded competition, and his ability to rally five-wide through traffic bodes well for Churchill’s chaos. However, he’ll need to outkick fellow closers like Sovereignty and Journalism, who boast similar figures, and avoid trouble in the large field. Wilkes’ patient approach—“he gets stronger at the finish”—and Hernandez’s recent Derby success suggest he’s peaking at the right time. He profiles best for exacta/trifecta tickets, with a chance to win if he gets a clean trip.

Conclusion:
Burnham Square’s progression from a green debut runner to a Grade 1 winner reflects a classic “raced into shape” approach to his training. His Holy Bull and Blue Grass victories, coupled with a career-best 104 Equibase figure, position him as a formidable closer, though his Fountain of Youth loss tempers expectations against elite rivals. Compared to Tappan Street’s stalking versatility or Journalism’s consistency, Burnham Square’s strength lies in his late kick and Derby-ready pedigree, but his success hinges on pace and trip. He’s a must-use in exotics and a live win candidate.