- Trainer PPs
- Sire PPs UPDATED
Wiz Capper: Breeders’ Cup Handicapping Analysis
- Updated: October 26, 2015
This year’s Breeders’ Cup handicapping analysis is brought to you by The Free PPs very own Wiz Capper.
In this handicapping analysis of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup, the Wiz Capper takes a good look at all 13 races and gives you his inside perspective and expert opinion on the leading contenders and their likelihood of success on the track.
Handicapping the Angles
Keeneland will host the Breeders’ Cup for the very first time after switching back to dirt from the bygone era of synthetic surface racing at the track. But there’s been plenty of time for some Breeders’ Cup contenders to have had a race over the track which makes this the biggest betting angle when handicapping the races. It’s the first thing I look for when handicapping the races.
Home field Advantage
Home field advantage is when a horse has a race over the track and the running line shows that there was at least some interest in being in the race. It doesn’t have to be a winning performance but I should be able to see a reason to believe that he could improve off his last race at the track.
Friday Races
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Race 6)
There’s 27 pre-entries in this one so I’ll keep it to the one’s that look to be best. Airoforce won the G3 Bourbon Stakes at 1 1/16 miles over a yielding turf course at Keeneland as the 5 to 1 favorite (gotta love the major stakes races!) and is 2 for 2 lifetime on the lawn. Cuts back in distance. Camelot Kitten was second at almost 6 to 1 in the Bourbon and will be rolling late. There’s several speedy types pre-entered including 1 for 5 Manhattan Dan, Riker who’s 4 for 4 at Woodbine over the Polytrack and Sheikh of Sheikhs who broke his maiden at Saratoga going 6 furlongs and finished 6th at Keeneland in the mud on October 15. Like I said, there’s too many to mention so I’ll wait until the final field is drawn before I say more.
Program Selections:
Breeders’ Cup Las Vegas Dirt Mile (Race 7)
A short distance into the first turn makes the inside horses vulnerable to early trouble if they don’t break fast. Street Strategy is 3 for 3 at a 1 mile including an OC Allowance at Keeneland in his last; is 5 for 9 the last two years; has never won a graded stakes race. Appealing Tale has 5 wins at 1 mile including G2 Kelso at Belmont in his last start; has had the 1 hole last three races; wonder what the draw will bring. Race appears on paper to be Liam’s Map to lose; has 5 wins and 2 seconds in as many lifetime starts; has the speed to be anywhere they choose. Mr. Z faced Triple Crown winner three times this year without showing much; 3YO is still NW3 lifetime and will be sent into contention for as far as he can go. Wicked Strong third behind Liam’s Map in G1 Woodward at the Spa; NW4 lifetime and hasn’t won a race since the G2 Jim Dandy in ’14. Faced tougher and should benefit from cutback in distance.
Program Selections:
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 8)
Race has attracted plenty of interest from the connections of the top two-year old fillies hoping to become stars on turf. Ruby Notion is 3 for 4 lifetime in the winner’s circle; her only defeat came when connections decided to send her to Ascot in England to run against boys in the Windsor Castle Stakes WITHOUT LASIX (not sure what they were thinking); Daughter of Great Notion loves the lawn and has all the speed but distance will be concern for her and any who press her early. Several cross-entered for this and the Juvenile Fillies including Land Over Sea who has a win on the grass at Del Mar in maiden voyage, Nemoralia runner-up in the Frizette in last, and Thrilled who has a win and two seconds in New York and cuts back. The running line comment on Mirage – who made only her second lifetime start in the non-graded Surfer Girl at Santa Anita in last – states she “steadied hard” and was moved up from second to third; she added Lasix in last after winning her debut overseas in June.
Program Selections:
Breeders’ Cup Longines Distaff (Race 9)
Beholder is cross-entered in the Classic. But is there really any chance she won’t be given a chance to upset the Champ? Not a chance. She beat some boys, albeit not the boys, in the G1 Pacific Classic two months ago and followed that up with a win in the G1 Zenyatta; won this race last year when held on home track. Wedding Toast won her last three convincingly; lost her only start at Keeneland in the 7 furlong G1 Madison; added distance will have her coasting early and appears primed for the win if Beholder goes in the Classic. Plenty of 3 YO’s pre-entered including Stellar Wind who finished fourth after early trouble as this year’s Kentucky Oaks favorite at 3 to 1; she returned to win a G2 and G3 in California but don’t think she can handle older mares yet.
Program Selections:
Saturday Races
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Race 3)
Starting with Home Field Advantage: Two-time winner Dothraki Queen and Ma Can Do It, a maiden, both exit the G1 Alcibiades at Keeneland and they finished 2nd and 3rd respectively over a sloppy track. Songbird is the speed of the race. She’s 3 for 3 in the winner’s circle having won the G1 Del Mar Debutante and the G1 Chandelier at Santa Anita in September. Land Over Sea faced Songbird twice in defeat and her only win came at 1 mile on turf in a MSW at Del Mar in July. Bold Quality broke her maiden at Parx going 5 1/2 and then was disqualified from second and placed 3rd in the G2 Pocahantas at Churchill behind the aforementioned Dothraki Queen. Nemoralia is the Euro invader with two wins on the turf at Doncaster and Kempton and last raced in the G1 Frizette at Belmont where she added Lasix to finish 2nd to Nickname on a sloppy track. Nickname has won her last two including the G1 Frizette at 1 mile and will contest the early pace. Rachel’s Valentina has won her only two starts for Pletcher. She was in a “pocket” and was 4 wide at the 5/16 pole before getting out late to take the 7f G1 Spinaway at Saratoga beating Tap To It.
Program Selections:
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Race 4)
Bobby’s Kitten won this race last year on the downhill at Santa Anita when the race was run at 6 1/2 furlongs. He made the one-run from way back and he’ll have to do it faster than he did it last year as this race is at 5 1/2 furlongs. His race over the track in the G1 Shadwell Mile was less than impressive; has faced tougher throughout career. Undrafted is one of three in here for trainer Ward; third behind Bobby’s Kitten last year while rallying; finished third in the G3 Shakertown here in April; won a G1 at Ascot with Dettori in June; 0 for 3 at distance. Lady Shipman is the 5 to 2 favorite as a 3YO filly facing males for the first time; has the speed to control the pace and just missed in a $100K stakes here on October 9; 7 for 8 in winner’s circle at distance. Throw the last race for Something Extra as he steadied and was taken up; Smith stays for another shot and will keep the filly honest on the front end; Won the Shakertown in April on the lead but has struggled since then. The Great War is another for Ward who started his career on the turf in the UK and then came to the states for last year’s BC Juvenile to finish fourth and never left; followed up with a win on synthetic at Turfway to begin the year and then bled in the Battaglia as the heavy favorite; sitting on two bullets moves over the Keeneland turf with the dogs up.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Race 5)
Judy the Beauty has won 4 of her 5 lifetime starts at Keeneland BUT that was on Polytrack so home field advantage doesn’t necessarily apply here; won this race last year at SA; she finished 3rd in the G2 TCA here going 6 furlongs a few weeks ago so it’s not all bad but she’s 6 to 1 with Dettori for 28% trainer Ward while the TCA winner, Fioretti, is in here at 30 to a dollar so you decide. Handicapper has Cavorting at 3 to 1 favorite from the 14 hole off three consecutive wins vs. her own age group but the last two at Saratoga were impressive; last time she started from this far outside she finished 9th of 13 at 1 mile at Gulfstream; will have to get the perfect ride from Irad Ortiz. La Verdad is a 5 YO New York bred who has won 7 of her last 8 but is 0 for 2 at the distance; Super Majesty is a 3 YO daughter of 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver who has won 3 of her 4 lifetime races most recently in her only graded start the G3 Dogwood at Churchill. At 5 to 1 Stonetastic comes into the race with a 109 speed rating – the highest of any runner – off a 15 length win at Parx in her last and is coming into the third race of her current form cycle on the improve; however she’s 0 for 3 at 7 furlongs and will get all she can handle from Taris who is the speed of the speed. Taris is a lightly raced 4 YO with plenty of breaks in her form; she’s sitting on a :59H bullet move on October 24 at Santa Anita; won the G2 Raven Run here last year going this distance and is 12 to 1 in the morning line.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Race 6)
Freddie Head trainer of Goldikova the champion mare and three-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Mile in 2008 – 2010 for the same connections sends Queen’s Jewel into this race off two straight losses after having won her first three starts in France; but there’s a caveat for bettors in that something obviously happened in her last two and I would venture to say that she BLED as she adds Lasix for Saturday’s race; she’s 12 to 1 right now and it’s worth remembering what I’ve said about her here. The favorite is Legatissimo who also adds Lasix and is 8 to 5 early off back-to-back wins in G1 company overseas; she has 5 wins in 10 starts on turf and Ryan Moore (1 win, 2 seconds on her) replaces regular rider Lordan. Secret Gesture was 5th in this race last year going 1/16 longer; beat AE Talmada in a G2 at York then finished 4th to favorite Legatissimo at the Curragh; won the G1 Beverly D at Arlington on Million Day defeating Watsdachances and Stephanie’s Kitten who was runner-up in the ’14 BC F&M Turf. The later came back to win the G1 Flower Bowl at Belmont on soft going and is 0 for 2 at Keeneland.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Race 7)
Private Zone favorite at 5 to 2; impressive in the G1 Forego victory at Saratoga in his last out; before that won the G3 Belmont Sprint; cuts back to 6 furlongs and while 9 of 10 in money including 4 wins at the distance, 3/4 mile may not be to his liking as he’ll have to try harder and run faster earlier to keep up; finished 3rd in the ’14 BC Sprint at Santa Anita going 6. Second choice in the morning line is Runhappy; a 3 YO colt by Super Saver who has won 5 of 6 in young career; took the G3 Phoenix here in the slop on October 2; only loss was a 9th place finish in the G3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds in second lifetime start; has the 6f speed to make matters worse for Private Zone and a :57.4 Hg bullet work over the track on October 14; has beaten older three times. Trying to find a reason why someone would name their horse Masochistic but given this guys running lines I would say he’s more of a Sadist; has 6 wins in 10 starts and has been competitive in G1 events most recently; has early foot and gets a new rider in Mike Smith.
Breeders’ Cup Mile (Race 8)
The Euro’s are always well represented the Mile and this year’s field includes the 3 YO Irish bred filly Impassable who will be making her first start stateside after notching 4 wins in 7 starts at her home base in France including a win vs. older males in a G2 at Longchamp in her last; adds Lasix. Make Believe is the 3 to 1 favorite; he’s a 3 YO colt who won the G1 feature at Longchamp vs. older on the day after Impassable won her race; was beaten by Classic contender Gleneagles in a G1 in June at Ascot when finishing last of 5. Esoterique is a 5 YO Irish bred mare who will be racing in the states for the first time off back-to-back scores in G1 races at a mile in Europe; rider follows her here so can expect top effort for legendary trainer Andre Fabre. Mondialiste added Lasix and came from far back to win the G1 Woodbine Mile over the speedy Obviously in his first start in North America and reunites with his regular rider; has won three in a row. Obviously only knows one way to run and that’s on the lead at 1 mile; finished 5th in this last year behind Karakontie who returns to defend his title. Karakontie added Lasix and drew the 14 hole last year to win this; raced twice in defeat including once to Esoterique in France this year in G1 company; draws 11 and gets Lasix back at 12 to 1.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Race 9)
Winner of this race usually considered the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby but more often than not it’s just too early to start smelling the roses. The early favorite at 7 to 2 for this race is Brody’s Cause winner of his last two including his most recent in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity here on October 3 in the mud; started his career on the grass at Ellis but “failed to respond” and returned at Churchill to break his maiden at 33 to 1 going 1 mile for Romans; made the switch to Lanerie for the G1 victory at 11 to 1 – and made the handicapper a believer. Exaggerator returns off his second place finish as the favorite in the Breeders’ Futurity; before that won maiden out at Del Mar and followed by winning the G2 Saratoga Special in August; has the race over the track to his benefit but will have to hold off Brody to win it. Nyquist is 4 for 4 lifetime beating runner-up Swipe in each of their last three meetings in California; runs for the connections of 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I’ll Have Another; and is the son of 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and undefeated two-year old champion, Uncle Mo; if he completes his mission on Saturday he will likely join his sire with those honors; however, if the aforementioned Swipe was his toughest competition to date he’ll need to do more on Saturday.
Breeders’ Cup Turf (Race 10)
Arlington Million winner The Pizza Man turned back to a mile to narrowly miss in the G1 Shadwell here over a yielding turf course on October 3; he’ll go 1 1/2 miles on Saturday – a distance he’s won 2 of 6 at – off three weeks rest. Golden Horn is 4 to 5 as a 3 YO who’s won 7 of 8 races including the G1 l’Arc de Triomphe at the distance in his last vs. all comers and Dettori will ride. Found is a 3 YO filly who was 9th in the Triomphe behind the favorite; she has 3 wins and 5 seconds in 10 starts – non at the distance – and adds Lasix. Big John B has won three in a row vs. lesser after switching to Bejarano; finished 9th in this race last year at SA in his only G1 race and appears over matched. Expect Castellano to have Red Rifle in contention early; lost the Turf Classic at Belmont to Big Blue Kitten as the favorite; 1 for 4 at distance. Shining Copper will be cruising early, but not late. Big Blue Kitten has 3 wins and 3 seconds in last 6.
Breeders’ Cup Classic (Race 11)
Imagine that the Classic distance of 1 1/4 miles isn’t American Pharoah’s favorite. It’s not that the two 1 1/4 mile races on his chart were not winning performances. In fact his first crack at the distance was a winning one in the Derby but it wasn’t as impressive as his subsequent wins in the Preakness and Belmont where he ran a little shorter or a little longer. In the Travers at 1 1/4 miles he sustained only the second and what may prove to have been the only other loss of his storied career. We’ll see on Saturday. Keen Ice upset the Champ in the G1 Travers at 16 to 1 giving him only his SECOND lifetime victory but this son of Curlin has another thing going for him and that’s the luxury of having had a race over the track when he finished 5th in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity last October. I won’t say that it’s enough to give him home field advantage but it – along with his most recent performance – makes him a strong contender to send Pharoah into retirement off a losing effort. Three-time winner Frosted exited the Travers’ to take the G2 Penn Derby and his two other wins came at Aqueduct. His best performances have come when he’s made one run at 1 1/8 miles. The last time a female horse challenged the boys in the Classic was in ’09 running at Churchill when Zenyatta came from too far back to run second by a whisker to Blame. It was a tough beat for the champion Zenyatta to go out having lost her last race. This year Beholder has a shot to send the Pharoah into racing lore as a Triple Crown winner who lost his last race. Gleneagles is the UNKNOWN for the simple fact that he’s bred for the lawn and has never raced on anything else but world-class euro trainer O’Brien would be remiss if he didn’t take a shot with this champion grandson of Storm Cat who is 7 for 10 lifetime in the winner’s circle in the UK but I’ll wait to see what ‘shakes’ out later this week before jumping on his bandwagon. Tonalist loves Belmont and this distance and his running style is suited for the way Keeneland plays to horses coming from just off the pace. However, he’s been beaten twice by Honor Code and has swapped splits with Effinex neither of which I see as real contenders. Honor Code’s only chance is to make one-run, has never tried the 1 1/4 miles distance and appears best suited at shorter sprint distances.
Program Selections:
