Kentucky Derby Trail: Blue Grass Stakes Odds, Analysis, Free PPs

By WIZCAPPER
Updated: April 6, 2018

Free 2018 Blue Grass Stakes Past Performances, Odds, and WizCapper’s Analysis

1.) Zing Zang – 30-1. Started his career at Keeneland going 7 panels and the Brisnet PPs running line for the race says “shuffled; cameb back” to finish 5th beaten just under 5 lengths. Took one more race before breaking his maiden at Fair Grounds in third lifetime start in a MSW. Tried graded company at longshot odds in last three starts. Comes from the clouds so added distance should help his cause and like the rider switch to Bridgmohan on this son of Tapit for Asmussen. Not saying he’s an overlay but from top to bottom no horse in this field, including Good Magic, is a cinch. And Hofburg, another lightly raced son of Tapit that recently ran second to Audible in the Florida Derby off his maiden score.

2.) Sporting Chance – 10-1. Velazquez was aboard this youngster for the “Coach” last time out in the Rebel but Saez is back on top in here to try and take this one wire-to-wire and an extra furlong longer than he’s been. Won the G1 Hopeful at Saratoga sprinting by a neck over Free Drop Billy who is also in here, and while on the leaderboard, is in the second or third tier of contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Lukas looking for a miracle with this guy having just 2 points and odds suggest he’s not that much of a longshot in this field which points us back to the inside runner with his closing style if you’re trying to make a case for the Rebel runners returning here.

3.) California Night – 30-1. Added blinkers for last start to win a 1 mile $80K OCN1X at Aqueduct over four others. Makes his first appearance on the Derby trail for Maker with a new rider and a fresh perspective. But this is a big hill to climb for speedy son of Midnight Lute who won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint twice and never a race over seven furlongs. Can’t win if you don’t run but chances are slim he’ll get the distance.

4.) Kanthaka – 10-1. Price seems high for this guy who was beaten just six lengths behind Bolt d’Oro who is 6-5 in the Santa Anita Derby out of the San Felipe. Gets a new rider in Leparoux who owns Keeneland. Expect good effort at a square price for horse who currently sits at #35 with 10 points and needs at least a third place finish to have a shot at the Derby. If you like Bolt d’Oro. If you like McKinzie. Don’t underestimate this guy’s chances in here.

5.) Quip – 6-1. After winning his first two starts which included a six length romp here going two turns for the first time off maiden victory, they took a shot at the G2 KYJC to end 2017 on a losing note. When he returned to win the Tampa Bay Derby at long odds, he was able to prevail over a field that was basically the ‘leftovers’ after Enticed and Free Drop Billy both scratched out of the race leaving World of Trouble (who?) and Vino Rosso as the two favorites. At #10 on the leaderboard he’s already a go for the Derby but to win the Blue Grass he’ll have to go the distance on the lead against the Eclipse award winning Good Magic in a wide open race.

6.) Marconi – 15-1. Love the fact that Pletcher sent this guy out going 9 furlongs in his first three career starts, winning in his second trip to the track at Aqueduct wearing blinkers for the first time. Made his 2018 debut in the G3 Withers and finished third behind Avery Island who was injured and removed from Kentucky Derby contention. Was 5th cutting back in the Fountain of Youth in his last start three lengths behind Good Magic and returns for his final chance at Derby glory needing a top two finish to get in. Pletcher has listed Ryan Moore (who will ride the UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn if he travels for the Derby) as the rider on this son of Tapit who will appreciate getting back to 1 1/8 miles and seems way overpriced in here.

7.) Blended Citizen – 15-1. Started career on dirt in SoCal races where you couldn’t find him with a search party. Finally got his first win on turf at Del Mar to begin a series of good efforts on grass and finally getting his second win last time out in the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway. Wore blinkers that day to notch back-to-back 100 BRIS speed figures. Doug O’Neill knows how to win big races and this guy needs some points (#24 with 22 points) to get in. Interesting if they were still running on synthetics at Keeneland but can’t see him making the switch back to dirt with any success.

8.) Gotta Go – 30-1. Exits the FOY when he finished a well beaten sixth at long odds. His 2 two-turn races were not his best and as the son of Shanghai Bobby would expect him to have more speed. Sire won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2012 but was better as a sprinter.

9.) Tiz Mischief – 30-1. Has never been more than 5-1 before today. Broke his maiden at Keeneland in his third career start and came running next time out in the KYJC but appeared to drop off in Florida finishing 13 lengths behind Audible and Free Drop Billy before a 5th place finish in the Tampa Bay Derby last time. Lanerie will ride for the first time and needs to get back to his winning ways in a hurry with only six points but not looking good.

10.) Free Drop Billy – 5-1. Won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) here for Romans last year and looked to be his main threat down the Road to the Kentucky Derby. That was before a less than impressive effort in the BC Juvenile when he finished 9th by the length of the stretch. (To be fair, Bolt d’Oro disappointed that day too.) Showed up at Gulfstream in the Holy Bull to start the year and met Audible for the first time and was no match. Scratched from the Tampa Bay Derby and traveled to New York to face off against Enticed in the Gotham as the favorite. Not sure why Romans gave the leg up to new rider Davis. But that combined with the cutback was definitely a bad move. Will get a more experienced rider in Ortiz, Jr. here and expect a much better performance from this son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags.

11.) Good Magic – 2-1. ‘Rocked the Road’ by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a maiden making his third lifetime start after a second place finish to Firenze Fire in the G1 Champagne the race before. Made his long awaited return in the FOY as the odds-on choice but failed to fire behind Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power. Both of them finished 9th and 8th, respectively in the Florida Derby next time out. Guess the right thing to do is give him one and toss his last but not convinced he will have had enough racing under his belt to win in Louisville on May 5, even if he does win here.

12.) Flameaway – 6-1. Sprinted 4 1/2 furlongs at Woodbine to break his maiden at first asking. Won at 5 1/2 in next start over a muddy Spa strip. So when they tried him long on dirt in the Iroquois (G3) he failed to move up on a neutral surface finishing 6th behind early Derby contender TheTabulator, but then returned to win in the slop at Keeneland in the Bourbon (G3) his affinity for alternative surfaces seemed evident. But in his last two starts, the Sam Davis and Tampa Bay Derby, he has proven he can run on any surface winning the Davis two back on the lead every step over Catholic Boy. And then proved he can overcome trouble and come from off-the-pace to nab second behind Quip in the TB Derby. He’s going to be hung out wide in here and will need to drop in to have a chance but he’s a five-time winner who’s gutsy as they come.

13.) Machismo – 20-1. Pletcher had him for his first two starts at Saratoga sprinting to defeat as the favorite in each. Finished seven lengths back of Rebel Stakes winner Magnum Moon in a maiden race for new handlers. Finally broke maiden by 11 at Gulfstream. Seems they’re reaching for the stars with this guy. And the fact that he was only beaten two lengths by Good Magic (2-1 in here) last time out makes it difficult to see the horses exiting the FOY as the key race indicator for this one.

14.) Arawak – 30-1. Immediate instinct is to toss this guy after a mere glance at his running lines. But upon closer inspection, further analysis is justified. Started in a 5 furlong sprint at Belmont wearing blinkers to win by 7 with Johnny V. aboard. It was muddy and he only beat 3 other horses. Traveled to Ascot (with Johnny V.) but without the use of Lasix (prohibited in the UK) or blinkers he was twelfth (in an 18 horse field) beaten just six lengths. Returned to the states in the G2 Best Pal at Del Mar with the Breeders’ Cup on his mind but could do no better than 5th. Trained by Wesley Ward, they removed the blinkers and he was moved to the turf where he continued on alternate surfaces through a third place finish last time out in the Jeff Ruby behind Blended Citizen . He’s been turned over to Doug O’Neill for this one. And will get blinkers back on and another shot on dirt. He’s a longshot for sure and the Blue Grass seems ripe for an upset. Just saying.

15.) Determinant is on the AE listed at 20-1. He was a maiden winner in his last start at this distance and is in capable hands. Tough to consider.

Free Blue Grass Stakes Past Performances provided by Brisnet. See Todd Pletcher PPs