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Baeza’s Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Race Progression and Key Wins
- Updated: May 2, 2025
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Race Progression Analysis for Baeza
Let’s analyze Baeza’s race progression towards the 2025 Kentucky Derby, drawing on his PPs and comparing him to other contenders.
Race Progression Breakdown
Baeza, trained by John Shirreffs, has a record of 1-2-0 in four starts (No. 21 on the leaderboard). He drew into the field after Rodriguez’s scratch, taking post 20.
Debut (December 1, 2024)
Baeza debuted on December 1, 2024, at Del Mar in a 1-mile maiden special weight on firm turf, finishing 9th in 1:35.94. In an 11-horse field, he steadied early, raced 2-3 wide, and faded, finishing behind Charlie’s to Blame and Muscled. His turf debut aligns with Flying Mohawk’s early turf starts (April 23, 2025, 08:22), but his poor showing offers little insight beyond his inexperience.
First Dirt Start (January 4, 2025)
On January 4, 2025, Baeza raced at Santa Anita in a 1-mile maiden special weight on a fast dirt track, finishing 2nd in 1:35.86. In a 6-horse field, he stalked 3-wide and bested the rest, finishing behind Rodriguez but ahead of Rank. His time is faster than Luxor Cafe’s Hyacinth Stakes win (1:37.60) (April 24, 2025, 07:39), showing early promise on dirt, though Rodriguez’s scratch now shifts the context of this race.
Maiden Win (February 14, 2025)
Baeza broke his maiden on February 14, 2025, at Santa Anita in a 1-mile maiden special weight on a fast dirt track, winning by 2 lengths in 1:37.94. In a 6-horse field, he pressed the pace 4-2 wide, cleared, and drifted in late, beating Mellencamp and Westwood. His time is slower than his debut 2nd but reflects a more controlled effort, and his wire-to-wire style mirrors Sandman’s front-running approach (April 15, 2025, 06:53).
Final Prep: Santa Anita Derby (April 5, 2025)
Baeza’s latest race was the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5, 2025, at Santa Anita over 1 1/8 miles on a fast dirt track, finishing 2nd in 1:49.93. In a 5-horse field, he bid 3-wide in the second turn, led briefly, and battled gamely, finishing ¾ length behind Journalism, ahead of Westwood. This effort earned 40 points, bringing his total to 40, enough to draw into the Derby field after Rodriguez’s scratch (April 26, 2025, 08:55). His time matches Neoequos’s Florida Derby 3rd (1:49.27) but is slower than Grande’s Wood Memorial 2nd (1:48.08) (April 26, 2025, 08:55; April 23, 2025, 09:56).
Analysis of Progression
Baeza’s progression shows a horse improving with experience, moving from a poor turf debut to a strong stakes placing on dirt. He’s 1-for-4, with his maiden win (1:37.94) and Santa Anita Derby 2nd (1:49.93) as highlights. His times reflect a front-running style: 1:35.86 to 1:37.94 at 1 mile and 1:49.93 at 1 1/8 miles. His Santa Anita Derby effort, beating Westwood (a stakes-placed colt), shows he can compete at the Grade 1 level, but his inexperience (only four starts) and lack of Churchill Downs experience are concerns.
His front-running style aligns with McKinzie’s versatility—McKinzie often stalked but could lead, as in his 2020 Whitney Stakes win (1:47.94). Baeza’s ability to lead in the Santa Anita Derby suggests he can set the pace, but his late fade against Journalism (the 3-1 Derby favorite) raises questions about his stamina at 1 1/4 miles.
Comparison to Other Contenders
Baeza’s front-running style aligns with Citizen Bull, Luxor Cafe, and Neoequos, who also prefer the lead (Citizen Bull’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, 1:43.07; Luxor Cafe’s Fukuryu Stakes, 1:52.10; Neoequos’s Florida Derby 3rd) (April 15, 2025, 06:53; April 24, 2025, 07:39; April 26, 2025, 08:55). And Sandman’s three stakes wins and Luxor Cafe’s four overall wins give them deeper resumes, while Neoequos’s two stakes thirds match Baeza’s consistency but with more starts (seven vs. Baeza’s four).
Grande and Render Judgment, as stalkers, have shown more consistency—Grande’s 2-for-3 record and Render Judgment’s Churchill Downs win (1:44.91) give them an edge in experience (April 23, 2025, 09:56; April 26, 2025, 08:55). Admire Daytona and Flying Mohawk, as closers, could benefit from Baeza’s early speed—Admire Daytona’s UAE Derby win (1:59.05) makes him a stronger closer than Baeza is a front-runner (April 24, 2025, 07:39). Flying Mohawk’s lack of dirt experience (Jeff Ruby Steaks 2nd, 1:50.50 on synthetic) puts him behind Baeza on dirt form (April 23, 2025, 08:22).
Journalism (Santa Anita Derby winner, 3-1 favorite) and Burnham Square (Blue Grass Stakes winner) remain the top contenders—Journalism’s win over Baeza in the Santa Anita Derby highlights the gap Baeza needs to close (April 15, 2025, 06:53; April 26, 2025, 08:55).
Looking Ahead to the Kentucky Derby
Baeza enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a late entrant from post 14, a challenging position historically (April 26, 2025, 08:55). His pedigree, with Street Sense and Big Brown both winning the Derby (Street Sense in 2007, 2:02.17; Big Brown in 2008, 2:01.82), and Puca’s production of Essential Quality, suggests he can handle 1 1/4 miles. His Santa Anita Derby 2nd confirms he can stretch to 1 1/8 miles, but his inexperience (four starts) and lack of Churchill Downs experience are hurdles.
He’s untested on wet tracks. Street Sense handled a sloppy track in the 2007 Blue Grass Stakes (2nd, 1:49.00 on Polytrack), and Big Brown won the 2008 Preakness on a fast but rain-affected track, suggesting Baeza might adapt. His front-running style could set a fast pace with Citizen Bull, Luxor Cafe, and Neoequos, potentially benefiting closers like Admire Daytona or Sovereignty, as seen in our Kentucky Derby picks and analysis. His largest field (11 horses in his debut) is smaller than Luxor Cafe’s (16), making the 20-horse Derby field a challenge.
Baeza’s recent form (Santa Anita Derby 2nd) makes him a candidate for exotic bets, similar to Neoequos (April 26, 2025, 08:55). Pairing him with closers like Admire Daytona or Sovereignty could offer value if he holds for a placing, but his 12-1 odds (per the PPs) and inexperience make him a riskier win bet compared to Journalism (3-1) or Sandman (6-1).
