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Home / Arkansas Derby / Arkansas Derby Analysis & Selections

Arkansas Derby Analysis & Selections

Arkansas Derby Picks for the G1 $1 million race for 3YO going 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn.

  1. Discreetness – Broke maiden at first asking going 5 1/2 on the Arlington all-weather last August. Has the most wins (4) of any runner in the field. Won an OCN2L at Churchill by 8 going 7/8 as the heavy favorite then started trying to climb the quality ladder winning two stakes including the Smarty Jones by a neck at Oaklawn at 1 mile. Couldn’t improve in last two against Suddenbreakingnews and Cupid in the Southwest and Rebel respectively. Want to say he’ll like the added distance but that’s not going to do it as his numbers just aren’t good enough and while trainer Fires is winning at 22% for the meet he’s 0 for 6 in graded stakes. Outsider.
  2. Cutacorner – 50 to 1 in the morning line for Hall of Fame trainer Van Berg who’s having a decent meet. Faced Suddenbreakingnews several times but couldn’t make the headlines. Managed to beat 6 home in the Rebel finishing 8th behind Cupid and others. Moves closer to the rail today and might run better from the two hole but can’t see him hitting the board in here.
  3. Creator – Broke maiden two back before finishing 3rd in the Rebel for Asmussen who is having his typical winning meet with 14% graded stakes winners from 81 starts. Horse had seconditis finishing as the runner-up in 4 of 5 before the 7 length maiden score going 1 1/16 miles here in February. Been bet down in each of his first 6 races before the Rebel in which he was partnered in the wagering with stablemate at 8 to 1. Will get better with the added distance today and if he takes another step forward should get a piece of the pie at 10 to 1.
  4. Suddenbreakingnews – Started career with a win going 7 1/2 on the grass at Remington but was DQ’d and placed 2nd. Came right back to get the win at 1 mile on the dirt in Oklahoma and has been the winner or runner-up in his next four including an impressive victory in the G3 Southwest here when stretching out to 1  1/16 miles for the first time after a two month layoff. Came back as the favorite vs. Cupid in the Rebel to finish 5th beaten 5 lengths after steadying. Should love the added distance and the switch from the widest posts in last two to the 4 hole will help save ground for this deep closer. Major player.
  5. American Pioneer – New on the Derby scene this 3YO son of Awesome Again was “bested” by Dazzling Gem in his first start at 1 mile here in January. Came back last month with an impressive maiden score at 1 1/6 miles at Oaklawn for 28% trainer Catalano who has sent out 11 winners from 39 runners at the meet but has only scored with 3% of his graded stakes starters. Bejarano gets the call to analyze this guys ability after only two career starts. He’s 8 to 1 which is the “any kind” line handicappers use when a horse could be just that. But it’s tough to win right back after maiden victory especially against other good ones.
  6. Unbridled Outlaw – Faced Nyquist in ’15 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile finishing 12th beaten 9 lengths in 14 horse field. Being taken along slowly since breaking maiden at Ellis last July going 6. Turned in best performance last time out here at Oaklawn in an OC2oK/N1x when finishing second. Race produced next out winner that earned a 74 Beyer. Has the speed to get the rail over the 5 inside him and will need to relax to have something left for the lane. Trainer Romans knows how to win big races and is 12% in graded stakes on the year. Not a fan of horses who break their maiden at Ellis but this one looks to have promise at 10 to 1 and could hang on for a piece off two 5f moves a week apart.
  7. Dazzling Gem – Two nice wins here to start career taking a MSW going 1 mile over American Pioneer who returned to win next out earning an 88 Beyer (see above). Returned to win next out going 1 1/16 in an AlwNW1x for $70K a month later. Has the distance under his belt having run third in the Louisiana Derby behind Gun Runner when 3 wide and was bumped in the far turn. Gets a new rider in Talamo and trainer Cox has an impressive $3.29 ROI in graded stakes from 27% winners and doing very well at the meet.  12 to 1 and like his chances for a big effort given his success over the track.
  8. Whitmore – Easy maiden winner at Churchill to start career winning a 6f MSW by 7. Returned to run 5th behind Exaggerator in the Delta Jackpot last November. Toss that effort. Won next out OC62K/N2L by 3 as favorite. Finished second to Suddenbreakingnews and Cupid in last two starts and Irad Ortiz Jr who rode him last time in the Rebel will give him another shot off his career high 92 Beyer Rebel 2nd but trainer is a dismal 4% in graded stakes from 25 starters. Looks like he might like making one run at shorter distances.
  9. Luna de Loco -Two of his four races look pretty good on paper having won his maiden opener on an off track at the Big A last November. Next out 4th place finish vs. Discreetness here in the Smarty Jones wasn’t bad either considering it was his next out after breaking maiden. He was 7 wide at the top of the stretch in the Southwest and finished 13th beaten 22 lengths by Suddenbreakingnews at 34 to 1. Earned his best Beyer 79 in next out win here going 1 1/16 in the slop. Is he a mudder? I’d say so. But Asmussen calls on Bravo to see if there’s anything more to this guy before throwing in the towel against the likes of the top 3YO’s this year. 30 to 1 and could take a step up especially if it rains in Hot Springs.
  10. Cupid – Rebel winner defied the handicappers handbook of rules that includes betting against horse who just broke their maiden but this guy isn’t just any horse trained by just any horseman. He’ll face basically the same field as he did in the Rebel with the addition of several new comers. He’ll have to “go” from the 10 hole to get into position for the run down the backstretch but his 95 Beyer should put him right there at the finish.
  11. Gray Sky – Lukas is 0 for 44 in graded stakes company this year but has been known to spring the upset and a win by this guy would certainly be that. Lone win was a 7f splash in the slop at Churchill which fits his pedigree being the grandson of turfer Peteski on the dame’s side. He’s been put into his races early on in his 8 race career including a runner up finish to Dazzling Gem two back and improved 5 Beyer points off that performance in his next out 6th place finish in the Rebel. Outsider who’ll be stuck outside the whole time.
  12. Gettysburg – Not much has been said about this WinStar home bred who comes in for Pletcher off a second place finish in the Sunland Futurity which would typically be the preemptive race for the Sunland Derby except that they cancelled it this year. This guy has two races at the 1 1/8 mile distance including his maiden score at Gulfstream in January in which he lead the whole way around to win by almost 5. Pretty good stuff for a 3YO with only two races prior. Was the beaten favorite in the Sam Davis won by Destin in his next out at Tampa. He only got an 87 Beyer in the Sunland victory and he’s stuck outside. Johnny V. will have to push on him and put him into the race from the break. 6 to 1 is generous.

Selections: 12 – 10 – 7