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Admire Daytona’s Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Race Progression and Key Wins
- Updated: April 24, 2025
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Admire Daytona’s Road to the Kentucky Derby on May 3 wasn’t paved until he won the UAE Derby in his most recent race. Analyzing his past performances (PPs), we’ll evaluate his development and readiness for Churchill Downs, while making comparisons with other contenders we’ve discussed—like Luxor Cafe, Built, Grande, Flying Mohawk, American Promise, Publisher, East Avenue, Owen Almighty, Citizen Bull, Chunk of Gold, Coal Battle, Final Gambit, Sovereignty, Tappan Street, Tiztastic, Rodriguez, Journalism, Sandman, and Burnham Square—for context.
Admire Daytona’s Race Progression
Admire Daytona, a 3-year-old colt by Drefong out of Ice Pastel, has competed in six races leading up to the Derby, primarily on dirt in Japan and the UAE, showing steady improvement with two wins and a strong closing style. Let’s break down his journey chronologically:
Modest Debut (October 6, 2024)
Admire Daytona debuted on October 6, 2024, at Tokyo in a 1-mile maiden special weight on a muddy dirt track, finishing 4th in 1:36.80. In a 16-horse field, he trailed early and was outfinished, placing behind Malibu Orange, June Eos, and Peisha Cape. His time is slower than Luxor Cafe’s 1:35.80 at the same distance on a good track (April 24, 2025, 07:39), reflecting a need for experience, a trait common in Drefong progeny like Kurino Dragon, who also improved with racing.
First Step Forward (October 26, 2024)
On October 26, 2024, Admire Daytona raced again at Tokyo in a 1-mile maiden special weight on a standard dirt track, finishing 2nd in 1:38.60. In a 16-horse field, he closed well to finish behind Alles Gut, beating Helvetios. His time is slower than his debut, likely due to a more measured pace, but his closing effort mirrors the late-running style of Shackleford progeny like Malathaat, who excelled in routes (April 24, 2025, 07:39).
Close Call (November 23, 2024)
Admire Daytona ran on November 23, 2024, at Tokyo in a 1-mile maiden special weight on a good dirt track, finishing 2nd in 1:35.80. In a 16-horse field, he rallied late but couldn’t catch Luxor Cafe, beating Ice Reading. This race, also Luxor Cafe’s maiden win (April 24, 2025, 07:39), shows Admire Daytona’s improvement—his time matches Luxor Cafe’s winning effort, and his ability to place in a large field highlights his developing consistency.
Maiden Breakthrough (February 8, 2025)
On February 8, 2025, Admire Daytona broke his maiden at Tokyo in a 1-mile maiden special weight on a standard dirt track, winning handily by 1 length in 1:39.00. In a 16-horse field, he stalked and surged late, beating Satomino Angel and Tosen Penelope. His time is slower than Luxor Cafe’s 1:37.60 in the Hyacinth Stakes (April 24, 2025, 07:39), but his wire-to-wire effort shows tactical versatility, a trait we’ve seen in Drefong progeny.
Stakes Test (February 23, 2025)
Admire Daytona stepped up to stakes company in the Hyacinth Stakes on February 23, 2025, at Tokyo over 1 mile on a standard dirt track, finishing 4th in 1:37.60. In a 10-horse field, he closed willingly but couldn’t catch Luxor Cafe, Promised Gene, or Don in the Mood. This race, Luxor Cafe’s second stakes win (April 24, 2025, 07:39), earned Luxor Cafe 30 Japan Road points, while Admire Daytona’s effort showed he could compete at the stakes level, though his late run suggests he needs more distance to shine.
Major Stakes Victory (April 5, 2025)
Admire Daytona’s latest race was the UAE Derby (G2) on April 5, 2025, at Meydan over 1 3/16 miles on a fast dirt track, where he won by 2 lengths in 1:59.05. In a 9-horse field, he led throughout and held on gamely, beating Heart of Honor and Don in the Mood. This win earned him 100 Derby points, securing his spot in the field. His time is competitive, matching Built’s Louisiana Derby (1:56.50 adjusted for distance) (April 23, 2025, 11:38), and mirrors the success of other UAE Derby winners like Thunder Snow (2017), who placed in the Kentucky Derby.
Analysis of Progression
Admire Daytona’s progression shows steady improvement—he’s 2-for-6, with 2 seconds and 2 fourths, reflecting consistency and a knack for closing in larger fields. His times align with his late-running style: 1:35.80 to 1:39.00 at 1 mile and 1:59.05 at 1 3/16 miles. His UAE Derby win is a high point, and his 100 Derby points confirm his spot in the field, as noted in recent X posts (April 24, 2025, 07:39).
His lack of Churchill Downs experience is a concern compared to horses like Flying Mohawk (1-for-1 on turf there) or Publisher (two thirds on dirt there) (April 23, 2025, 08:22; April 22, 2025, 07:29). However, his UAE Derby win shows he can handle international competition, a trait shared by Japanese runners like Forever Young (3rd in the 2024 Derby). His closing style could benefit from a fast pace, but his limited stakes experience outside the UAE Derby raises questions about his ability to handle the Derby’s 20-horse field.
Comparison to Other Contenders
Admire Daytona’s closing style aligns with Flying Mohawk, who finished 2nd in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (1:50.50) with a late rally but lacks dirt experience (April 23, 2025, 08:22). Admire Daytona’s UAE Derby win gives him a stronger final prep than Flying Mohawk’s synthetic effort. Luxor Cafe, who beat Admire Daytona in the Hyacinth Stakes (1:37.60), has a front-running style and more stakes wins, giving him an edge in consistency (April 24, 2025, 07:39). Grande, with a Wood Memorial second (1:48.08), shares a similar tactical approach but has more U.S. dirt experience (April 23, 2025, 09:56).
Burnham Square, with 130 Derby points and a Blue Grass Stakes win (1:51.09), and Sandman, with 104 points and wins in the Southwest and Arkansas Derby, have deeper U.S. resumes (April 15, 2025, 06:53). Journalism, expected to be the Derby favorite after the Santa Anita Derby, may handle the 20-horse field better due to his U.S. experience, a challenge Admire Daytona shares with Luxor Cafe (April 6, 2025, 08:41).
Looking Ahead to the Kentucky Derby
Admire Daytona enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby with a solid resume—his pedigree, with Drefong’s speed and Shackleford’s Preakness-winning grit, suggests he can handle 1 1/4 miles (April 24, 2025, 07:39). Sunday Silence’s influence via Million Gift adds stamina, as seen in his UAE Derby performance. His closing style could benefit from a fast pace set by horses like Luxor Cafe or Rodriguez, a scenario we’ve explored with closers like Sovereignty in the Florida Derby (March 29, 2025, 09:15).
Track conditions could be a factor. Admire Daytona has raced on a muddy track (4th at Tokyo), showing some adaptability, but a sloppy Derby track might favor horses with more off-track experience like Built (April 23, 2025, 11:38). Shackleford handled a sloppy track in the 2011 Preakness, suggesting Admire Daytona might manage. In our hypothetical Derby, closers thrived on a sloppy track, which could suit Admire Daytona if he gets a clean trip (April 4, 2025, 08:08).
Admire Daytona’s closing ability makes him a strong candidate for exacta and trifecta bets if he can translate his turf pedigree into a powerful dirt effort. Pairing him with a front-runner like Luxor Cafe or Rodriguez could offer value if he rallies for a top spot, though his lack of U.S. experience makes him a risky win bet.
