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Home / News / 2025 Santa Anita Derby Predictions, Odds, and Expert Handicap Analysis

2025 Santa Anita Derby Predictions, Odds, and Expert Handicap Analysis

Kentucky Derby 2025 Prep Race Canva

Let’s dive into the Santa Anita Derby on April 5, 2025, at Santa Anita Park, a 1 1/8-mile Grade I race for three-year-olds with a $500,000 purse and crucial Kentucky Derby points on the line (100-50-25-15-10). I’ll handicap the five entrants—Journalism, Citizen Bull, Westwood, Barnes, and Baeza—using the Brisnet past performances (PPs) provided, analyzing their form, speed figures, running styles, pedigrees, trainer/jockey stats, and recent workouts to predict the outcome.

Field Overview

  • Distance: 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs), a step up for some and a test of stamina.
  • Track: Santa Anita dirt, typically fast (Fst rating: 113 for most entrants).
  • Pace Pars: E1 (93), E2 (102), Late (92), Speed (102) suggest a moderately fast early pace with a balanced late kick required.
  • Field Size: Five runners, reducing traffic concerns but emphasizing class and tactical speed.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Journalism (PP1, E/P 5, Umberto Rispoli, Michael McCarthy)

  • Profile: 3-0-1 in 4 starts, $338,880. Prime Power: 142.7 (3rd). Last race: Won San Felipe (G2) at 1 1/16 miles, 104 speed figure.
  • Strengths:
  • Proven at Santa Anita (1-0-1 in 2 starts), including a gritty San Felipe win on March 1, 2025, beating Barnes by 1 1/4 lengths.
  • Top speed figure (104) matches the race par (102), with a late surge (LP 113 in San Felipe).
  • Versatile E/P style (stalking, not front-dependent) suits a small field.
  • McCarthy (20% winners) and Rispoli (21% winners) are sharp; their combo excels with routes (+0.20 ROI with E/P types).
  • Curlin sire line (AWD 7.6f, 17% mud) brings stamina for 9 furlongs.
  • Concerns:
  • Second off a 31-day layoff; McCarthy’s ROI dips to -0.97 in this spot.
  • Faced weaker in San Felipe (Barnes was the favorite but underperformed).
  • Recent Form: 3-for-4 lifetime, with improving figures (84-95-99-104). San Felipe win showed maturity, rallying inside-to-3-wide late.
  • Workouts: Steady but unspectacular (5f in 1:01 on March 29). Fit, not flashy.
  • Verdict: A contender with proven G2 form and tactical flexibility. Must replicate San Felipe effort against tougher foes.

2. Citizen Bull (PP2, E 8, Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert)

  • Profile: 4-0-1 in 5 starts, $1,421,000. Prime Power: 144.4 (2nd). Last race: Won Robert B. Lewis (G3) at 1 mile, 96 speed figure, on February 1, 2025.
  • Strengths:
  • Elite resume: Won BC Juvenile (G1, 107) and American Pharoah (G1, 100) at 1 1/16 miles in 2024.
  • Baffert (31% winners) is a master in graded stakes (28%, -0.34 ROI); excels with winners off a break (37%).
  • Fastest dirt speed in the field (107, BC Juvenile), well above par (102).
  • Early speed (E1 100 in BC Juvenile) could control a modest pace.
  • Into Mischief sire (AWD 6.8f, 18% mud) has produced versatile winners.
  • Sharp March 29 workout (5f in :58.4, fastest of 42).
  • Concerns:
  • 63-day layoff since February 1; Baffert’s 46-90 day stat is strong (30%), but Garcia’s ROI with routes (-1.80) lags.
  • Modest 96 in Robert B. Lewis suggests a flatter recent effort.
  • Garcia (25% at meet) is less proven than Hernandez or Rispoli.
  • Recent Form: Dominant 2024 (3-0-1 in 4 starts), but 96 in 2025 is a step back from triple-digit G1 wins.
  • Verdict: Classiest in the field with G1 credentials. Layoff and jockey are question marks, but Baffert’s prep skills loom large.

3. Westwood (PP3, P 3, Tiago Pereira, John Shirreffs)

  • Profile: 0-1-1 in 3 starts, $20,700. Prime Power: 130.0 (5th). Last race: 2nd in a 1 1/16-mile maiden, 91 speed figure, March 14, 2025.
  • Strengths:
  • Improving: 70 (turf debut), 91, 91 in three starts. Third off layoff (Shirreffs 11%, but 53% in-the-money).
  • Late-closing style (LP 102 in last) fits a race needing stamina.
  • Authentic sire (AWD 7.4f) won the 2020 Kentucky Derby; dam’s Indian Charlie line adds grit.
  • Pereira (16%) and Shirreffs (12%) are solid, not spectacular.
  • Concerns:
  • Unproven in stakes company; maiden runner-up efforts (91) are below par (102).
  • Beaten by weaker last out (Voldmort, a maiden, won at 3.10 odds).
  • Shirreffs’ graded stakes record (11%, -1.04 ROI) underwhelms.
  • Recent Form: Progressing but still a maiden after three tries. Last race showed rally but no knockout punch.
  • Workouts: Steady 5f in 1:01 on March 29. Ready, not dazzling.
  • Verdict: A longshot with upside, but class jump and lack of a win make him a minor player.

4. Barnes (PP4, E/P 8, Juan Hernandez, Bob Baffert)

  • Profile: 2-1-0 in 3 starts, $249,000. Prime Power: 145.9 (1st). Last race: 2nd in San Felipe (G2), 102 speed figure, March 1, 2025.
  • Strengths:
  • Highest Prime Power (145.9) reflects raw ability.
  • San Felipe runner-up (102) to Journalism; led early, faded late, but showed fight.
  • Baffert (31%) and Hernandez (22%, 43% routes) are a lethal combo (+0.06 ROI last 60 days).
  • Won San Vicente (G2, 7f, 94) wire-to-wire on January 4, 2025, as the favorite.
  • Into Mischief sire matches Citizen Bull’s; $3.2M purchase screams potential.
  • Second route race (Baffert 26%, 74% in-the-money).
  • Concerns:
  • Failed as San Felipe favorite (0.40 odds), yielding to Journalism late.
  • E/P style needs pace to stalk; small field may limit setup.
  • Recent Form: 88-94-102 progression is strong. San Felipe loss stings but confirms stakes quality.
  • Workouts: 4f in :48 on March 31—quick and efficient.
  • Verdict: Top contender. San Felipe exposed stamina limits, but Baffert’s tweaks and Hernandez’s skill could flip the script.

5. Baeza (PP5, E 5, Hector Berrios, John Shirreffs)

  • Profile: 1-1-0 in 3 starts, $48,500. Prime Power: 130.4 (4th). Last race: Won 1-mile maiden, 98 speed figure, February 14, 2025.
  • Strengths:
  • Broke maiden impressively (98, LP 101) with a stalking trip.
  • Berrios (22%) and Shirreffs clicked recently (2-1-0 in 14 days, +3.51 ROI).
  • McKinzie sire (AWD 7.1f) and stakes-winning dam (Puca) suggest distance aptitude.
  • Sharp 6f workout (1:12) on March 29, best of the day.
  • Concerns:
  • 50-day layoff; Shirreffs’ 46-90 day stat is meh (11%).
  • Big class jump from maiden to G1; Shirreffs’ 6% maiden-to-stakes record (-1.39 ROI) is a red flag.
  • 98 figure is below par (102).
  • Recent Form: 79 (turf), 88, 98—improving, but untested at this level.
  • Verdict: Promising but outclassed. Layoff and stakes inexperience cap his ceiling.

Pace Scenario

  • Early Speed: Citizen Bull (E 8) and Barnes (E/P 8) are the pace-setters. Citizen Bull’s G1 wins show he can wire fields, while Barnes led in the San Felipe before tiring.
  • Stalkers: Journalism (E/P 5) and Baeza (E 5) can sit 2nd-3rd early, saving ground.
  • Closer: Westwood (P 3) needs a hot pace to rally late.
  • Projection: Moderate pace (E1 ~93-96). Citizen Bull may push from the outside (PP2), with Barnes (PP4) pressing. Journalism (PP1) gets a rail trip, stalking. Westwood and Baeza lag early.

Prediction

  1. Barnes: Baffert’s second bullet fires here. The San Felipe loss (102) was a learning curve; Hernandez (43% routes) adjusts tactics, leveraging Barnes’ speed and Prime Power edge (145.9). The 9-furlong stamina question lingers, but Baffert’s 29% win rate in 2025 and sharp :48 workout signal readiness. Beats Journalism in a rematch.
  2. Journalism: A game San Felipe winner (104), he’s consistent and tactically sound. Rispoli’s 21% strike rate and Curlin’s stamina keep him close. Small field suits his stalking style, but Citizen Bull’s class might edge him out late.
  3. Citizen Bull: G1 pedigree (107 BC Juvenile) and Baffert’s prep magic (sharp :58.4 work) make him dangerous despite the layoff. Garcia’s route struggles (-1.80 ROI) and a flatter 96 last out temper expectations. Still, he’s too good to fade entirely.
  4. Baeza: Maiden win (98) was slick, and the 1:12 work pops, but 50 days off and a G1 leap are steep hurdles. Shirreffs’ low maiden-to-stakes success (6%) suggests a minor placing at best.
  5. Westwood: Late kick (LP 102) is intriguing, but maiden status and a 91 top figure scream underdog. Needs chaos to hit the board.

Betting Recommendation

  • Win: Barnes (projected odds ~2-1). Value if above even money.
  • Exacta: Barnes over Journalism/Citizen Bull.
  • Longshot Play: Westwood to show if odds exceed 15-1.

Barnes gets the nod in a tight finish, claiming the $300,000 and 100 Kentucky Derby points. Enjoy the race!

NOTE: The analysis and predictions are for informational purposes only and there is no guarantee, implied or otherwise, for success using this prediction. Do your own research and wager responsibly. TheFreePPs.com nor any of its principals are responsible for any losses that may be incurred using this information.