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Home / News / 2025 Florida Derby Preview and Predictions

2025 Florida Derby Preview and Predictions

Kentucky Derby 2025 Prep Race Canva

Let’s analyze the 2025 Florida Derby field at Gulfstream Park using the Brisnet past performance (PP) data for the 10 horses entered. The race is a 1 1/8-mile Grade 1 event on dirt with a $1,000,000 purse, set for March 29, 2025. We have used an AI model to evaluate each horse’s form, pace/speed figures, class experience, trainer/jockey stats, and suitability for the distance and surface, then predicts the outcome.

Race Overview

  • Distance: 1 1/8 miles (9 furlongs)
  • Surface: Fast Dirt (based on Gulfstream’s typical conditions)
  • Pace/Speed Pars: E1 94, E2 103, Late 93, Speed 103
  • Suggests a moderately fast early pace with strong finishing speed required.
  • Post Time: 6:42 PM EDT (assuming Eastern Time at Gulfstream).

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Neoequos (PP1, E 8)

  • Prime Power: 140.7 (2nd)
  • Record: 6 starts, 2-2-1, $179,050, Avg Speed 101
  • Strengths:
  • High early speed (E 8) fits a front-running style; could set or press the pace.
  • Best dirt speed (101 avg) is close to par (103), with a 101 in the FSAffirmdB.
  • Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. (20% meet, 24% graded stakes) and jockey Edgard Zayas (15% meet) are solid.
  • 3rd in G2 Fountain of Youth (96) last out shows class competitiveness.
  • Sharp 5f workout (Mar-16, :58.4).
  • Weaknesses:
  • No 9f experience; untested at this distance.
  • Faded to 3rd in last race after leading; may struggle to sustain pace.
  • Fit: Strong contender if he can rate off another speed horse; Gulfstream success (2-2-1) is a plus.

2. Cool Intentions (PP2, E/P 6)

  • Prime Power: 127.5 (8th)
  • Record: 4 starts, 2-1-0, $62,810, Avg Speed 96
  • Strengths:
  • Javier Castellano (11% meet, 19% graded stakes) is experienced in big races.
  • Trainer Jorge Delgado (20% 2024-25) excels with routes and layoffs (23% 46-90 days).
  • Won an OC75k at 7f with a 96 speed figure.
  • Weaknesses:
  • Low Prime Power and speed figures (max 96 vs. par 103).
  • 5th in last race (MuchoMManL, 81) after a 2-month layoff; form is shaky.
  • No route experience beyond 1 mile.
  • Fit: Likely overmatched; recent poor performance and lack of distance prep hurt chances.

3. Smoken Boy (PP3, NA 0)

  • Prime Power: 122.8 (10th)
  • Record: 5 starts, 2-1-0, $47,260, Avg Speed 75
  • Strengths:
  • Two wins in Puerto Rico (mdn and G1 Clasico Agustin Mercado Reveron).
  • Sharp 4f workout (Mar-16, :48).
  • Weaknesses:
  • Poor speed figures (max 75 vs. par 103); 73 in last U.S. start.
  • Trainer Cheryl Winebaugh (4% meet) and jockey Edgar Perez (8% meet) are weak.
  • 6th in last race (OC75k) at Gulfstream; always far back.
  • No early speed data (NA 0) and untested at 9f in U.S.
  • Fit: Outclassed; Puerto Rico form doesn’t translate here.

4. Disruptor (PP4, E/P 6)

  • Prime Power: 139.9 (4th)
  • Record: 2 starts, 1-0-1, $49,000, Avg Speed 94
  • Strengths:
  • Trainer Todd Pletcher (18% meet) and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. (24% meet, 23% E/P) are elite.
  • Won last out (mdn, 7f, 94) at Gulfstream; improving form.
  • High E2 (103) in last race matches par, showing stamina potential.
  • Sharp 4f workout (Mar-22, :48.6).
  • Weaknesses:
  • Only 2 starts; steps up significantly in class.
  • No route experience; 3rd in prior mdn try after leading.
  • Fit: Talented but green; could hit the board if he handles the distance jump.

5. Indecisiveness (PP5, E/P 4)

  • Prime Power: 126.6 (9th)
  • Record: 4 starts, 1-0-1, $62,668, Avg Speed 84
  • Strengths:
  • 3rd in last race (OC75k, 1 1/8m, 81) shows some distance ability.
  • Trainer Ruben Sierra (40% 3rd off layoff) is a positive angle.
  • Sharp 5f workout (Mar-16, :59).
  • Weaknesses:
  • Low speed figures (max 84 vs. par 103).
  • Beaten by weaker foes in last two starts.
  • Jockey Jorge Ruiz (12% meet) and trainer (9% meet) lack punch.
  • Fit: Minor award possible, but speed and class are lacking.

6. Jimmy’s Dailys (PP6, E/P 8)

  • Prime Power: 130.6 (7th)
  • Record: 4 starts, 1-1-1, $71,770, Avg Speed 89
  • Strengths:
  • High early speed (E/P 8); could press or lead.
  • 2nd in last race (OC75k, 1 1/8m, 85) proves he can handle the distance.
  • Jockey Joel Rosario (14% meet, 22% routes) and trainer Brian Lynch (17% meet) are capable.
  • Broke maiden at 7f with an 89.
  • Weaknesses:
  • Speed figures (max 89) are below par.
  • Beaten by weaker in last race as a favorite.
  • Fit: Contender for a placing; pace presence helps, but lacks top-end speed.

7. Enterdadragon (PP7, E/P 1)

  • Prime Power: 131.5 (6th)
  • Record: 9 starts, 2-1-1, $103,144, Avg Speed 91
  • Strengths:
  • Trainer Jose D’Angelo (20% meet) is strong; 18% turf-to-dirt.
  • 2nd in last race (ColLiamL, 1m turf, 91) shows recent form.
  • Won an OC75k at 1 1/16m turf (82).
  • Weaknesses:
  • Best form is on turf (7 starts, avg 91); only 1 dirt start (84).
  • Low early speed (E/P 1); may get caught chasing.
  • Speed figures below par (max 91).
  • Fit: Turf-to-dirt switch is intriguing, but dirt speed is unproven.

8. Madaket Road (PP8, E/P 6)

  • Prime Power: 142.0 (1st)
  • Record: 4 starts, 1-2-1, $280,000, Avg Speed 96
  • Strengths:
  • Highest Prime Power (142.0); consistent graded stakes placer (2nd Rebel-G2, 96; 3rd RBLewis-G3, 88).
  • Trainer Bob Baffert (29% 2024-25, 28% graded stakes) and jockey Tyler Gaffalione (19% meet) are top-tier.
  • High E2 (107 in Bob Hope-G3) suggests closing ability.
  • Blinkers off (33% for Baffert) could sharpen focus.
  • Sharp 4f workout (Mar-16, :46.8).
  • Weaknesses:
  • No 9f experience; faded late in Rebel after leading.
  • Ships from California; first Gulfstream start.
  • Fit: Major player; class and connections stand out.

9. Tappan Street (PP9, E/P 5)

  • Prime Power: 140.0 (3rd)
  • Record: 2 starts, 1-1-0, $73,000, Avg Speed 99
  • Strengths:
  • Tied for highest last-race speed (99, Holy Bull-G3, 2nd); matches par.
  • Trainer Brad Cox (27% 2024-25, 24% graded stakes) and jockey Luis Saez (16% meet) are excellent.
  • Hot jockey (4-3-3 last 7 days) and sharp 5f workout (Mar-22, 1:01.6).
  • Led late in Holy Bull before caught; stamina potential.
  • Weaknesses:
  • Only 2 starts; failed as favorite last out.
  • 56-day layoff could affect sharpness.
  • Fit: Lightly raced but talented; a top threat if fresh.

10. Sovereignty (PP10, S 3)

  • Prime Power: 139.8 (5th)
  • Record: 4 starts, 2-1-0, $388,800, Avg Speed 99
  • Strengths:
  • Won last race (Fountain of Youth-G2, 1 1/16m, 99); tied for highest speed.
  • Trainer Bill Mott (20% graded stakes) and jockey Junior Alvarado (17% meet) are reliable.
  • Strong late pace (103 in last race) matches par; fits stalker style (S 3).
  • Hot trainer/jockey combo (2-1-1 last 14 days).
  • Proven at Gulfstream (1-0-0, 99).
  • Weaknesses:
  • Limited experience at 9f; late rally in G2 was off a slow pace.
  • Fit: Top contender; recent win and closing kick are ideal.

Race Dynamics and Pace Scenario

  • Pace Setters: Neoequos (E 8), Jimmy’s Dailys (E/P 8), and possibly Madaket Road (E/P 6) could vie for the lead. Neoequos’ high early speed and Gulfstream success make him the likely pacemaker.
  • Pressers: Disruptor (E/P 6), Tappan Street (E/P 5), and Madaket Road could stalk close behind.
  • Closers: Sovereignty (S 3) and Enterdadragon (E/P 1) will come from off the pace.
  • Projection: Moderate early pace (E1 94) with Neoequos setting it. The E2 (103) and Late (93) pars suggest stamina and a late kick will decide the winner.

Predicted Outcome

  1. Sovereignty (PP10):
  • Why: G2 winner last out with a 99 speed figure, matching par. His late pace (103) and stalker style suit the 9f distance. Mott’s graded stakes prowess and Alvarado’s recent form boost confidence. Gulfstream win is a plus.
  • Risk: Untested at 9f, but his rally in the Fountain of Youth suggests he’ll handle it.
  1. Madaket Road (PP8):
  • Why: Highest Prime Power (142.0) and consistent graded stakes form (2nd Rebel-G2, 3rd RBLewis-G3). Baffert’s shippers (30%) and Gaffalione’s skill make him dangerous. Blinkers off could sharpen him.
  • Risk: No Gulfstream experience and faded late in Rebel; distance is a question.
  1. Tappan Street (PP9):
  • Why: 99 in the Holy Bull-G3 shows class, and Cox’s 24% graded stakes win rate is elite. Saez’s hot streak and a strong workout suggest readiness despite the layoff.
  • Risk: Light experience and 56-day break could hinder sharpness.
  1. Neoequos (PP1):
  • Why: Pace control and a 101 avg speed at Gulfstream make him a threat. Joseph and Zayas are reliable, and he’s battle-tested.
  • Risk: Faded in last two starts; may not sustain at 9f.

Betting Recommendations

  • Win: Sovereignty (PP10) – Best blend of form, speed, and closing ability.
  • Exacta: Sovereignty over Madaket Road (10-8).
  • Trifecta: Sovereignty, Madaket Road, Tappan Street (10-8-9).
  • Superfecta: Add Neoequos (10-8-9-1).

Final Thoughts

Sovereignty’s recent G2 win and late kick give him the edge in a field with several untested routers. Madaket Road’s class and Tappan Street’s potential make them serious threats, while Neoequos could hang on for a piece if the pace isn’t too hot. Disruptor is a wild card with upside but lacks experience. The rest (Cool Intentions, Smoken Boy, Indecisiveness, Jimmy’s Dailys, Enterdadragon) lack the speed or form to win barring a major upset.