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Home / News / 2025 Blue Grass Stakes: Predictions and Top Contenders

2025 Blue Grass Stakes: Predictions and Top Contenders

Kentucky Derby 2025 Prep Race Canva

Alright, let’s handicap the 2025 Blue Grass Stakes using the Equibase past performances (PPs) you provided. I’m familiar with reading PPs, so I’ll dive right in and analyze the key factors: recent form, speed figures, class, distance experience, workouts, jockey/trainer combos, and any other relevant notes. The Blue Grass Stakes is a 1 1/8-mile race at Keeneland, a major Kentucky Derby prep offering 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers. Here’s my breakdown of the seven contenders:

IMPORTANT UPDATE: 2025 Blue Grass Stakes rescheduled. HorseRacingNation.com has the details.

Read an updated analysis using the Equibase PPs based on the weather forecast for Keeneland on Saturday.

1. River Thames (Program #1, Red)

  • Trainer/Jockey: Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz, Jr. (top-tier combo)
  • Record: 3 starts, 2 wins, 1 second (Life: 3-2-1-0)
  • Speed Figures: 98 (highest in last race), 91, 96
  • Recent Form: Undefeated in 2025 (3-2-1-0). Won an AOC at 1 mile, then ran a strong second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at 1 1/16 miles, narrowly beaten by Sovereignty. Consistent and improving.
  • Distance: No 1 1/8-mile races yet, but his Fountain of Youth run (1:43.38) suggests he can stretch out.
  • Workouts: Solid, with a sharp 5F in 1:00.51 on March 21 at Palm Beach Downs.
  • Pros: High speed figures, Pletcher/Ortiz duo, tactical speed (can lead or stalk), NY-bred with upside.
  • Cons: First time at 1 1/8 miles, untested at Keeneland, faced smaller fields (6-9 runners).
  • Verdict: A top contender. His late surge in the Fountain of Youth shows stamina, and Ortiz’s presence is a big plus.

2. Render Judgment (Program #2, White)

  • Trainer/Jockey: Kenneth McPeek / Sheldon Russell
  • Record: 6 starts, 1 win, 2 seconds, 1 third (Life: 6-1-2-1)
  • Speed Figures: 90 (highest recently), 88, 77, 80, 90
  • Recent Form: Second in the Virginia Derby (1 1/8 miles) and a flat eighth in the Risen Star (G2). Broke maiden at Keeneland in October 2024 (1 1/16 miles, 90).
  • Distance: Proven at 1 1/8 miles (2-0-1-0), including a stakes placing.
  • Workouts: Decent, with a 4F bullet (:48) on March 9 at Fair Grounds.
  • Pros: Keeneland experience (1-1-0-0), distance suits, McPeek’s Derby prep savvy.
  • Cons: Inconsistent speed figures, faded badly in Risen Star, unproven against elite fields.
  • Verdict: A fringe contender. Could hit the board if he rebounds, but recent form raises doubts.

3. Burnham Square (Program #3, Blue)

  • Trainer/Jockey: Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez, Jr.
  • Record: 5 starts, 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third (Life: 5-2-1-1)
  • Speed Figures: 93 (highest recently), 91, 94, 88, 69
  • Recent Form: Won the Holy Bull (G3) at 1 1/16 miles in February, then fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2). Strong maiden win at Gulfstream.
  • Distance: No 1 1/8-mile races yet, but his times (1:43.25 in Holy Bull) suggest potential.
  • Workouts: Very sharp, with a 5F in :59.60 on March 29 at Churchill Downs.
  • Pros: Consistent form, tactical speed, Hernandez’s local knowledge, peaking now.
  • Cons: Unproven at distance, faded late in last start, moderate Keeneland effort (6f, 69).
  • Verdict: A live player. His Holy Bull win shows class, and he’s training well.

4. Owen Almighty (Program #4, Yellow)

  • Trainer/Jockey: Brian Lynch / Jose Ortiz
  • Record: 6 starts, 3 wins, 2 seconds (Life: 6-3-2-0)
  • Speed Figures: 98 (highest recently), 96, 95, 90, 87, 97
  • Recent Form: Won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at 1 1/16 miles in March, second in the Sam F. Davis. DQ’d from a win in the Pasco (7f).
  • Distance: No 1 1/8-mile races, but his Tampa Bay Derby (1:42.15) was visually impressive.
  • Workouts: Excellent, with a 5F bullet (1:00.75) on March 29 at Palm Meadows.
  • Pros: High speed figures, in-form (3-1-1-0 in 2025), Ortiz aboard, loves to lead.
  • Cons: First time at Keeneland, distance question, faced softer fields at Tampa.
  • Verdict: A major threat. His front-running style and consistency make him dangerous.

5. East Avenue (Program #5, Green)

  • Trainer/Jockey: Brendan Walsh / Luan Machado
  • Record: 4 starts, 2 wins (Life: 4-2-0-0)
  • Speed Figures: 97 (highest), 71, 85, 88
  • Recent Form: Won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland (1 1/16 miles, 97), then faltered in the Risen Star (10th) and BC Juvenile (9th).
  • Distance: Ran 1 1/8 miles once (Risen Star, 71), faded badly.
  • Workouts: Stellar, with a 4F bullet (:47) on March 29 at Keeneland.
  • Pros: Keeneland winner, G1 credentials, Godolphin backing, blinkers on today.
  • Cons: Poor recent form, unproven at distance, Machado less experienced.
  • Verdict: A wild card. If he regains his Breeders’ Futurity form, he’s a factor; otherwise, risky.

6. Chancer McPatrick (Program #6, Purple)

  • Trainer/Jockey: Chad Brown / Flavien Prat
  • Record: 5 starts, 3 wins, 1 second (Life: 5-3-1-0)
  • Speed Figures: 95 (highest), 93, 94, 93, 82
  • Recent Form: Second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), won the Champagne (G1) and Hopeful (G1) in 2024. Strong juvenile campaign.
  • Distance: No 1 1/8-mile races, but his Tampa run (1:42.15) was game.
  • Workouts: Steady, with a 4F in :48.80 on March 29 at Payson Park.
  • Pros: G1 winner, Brown/Prat duo, versatile running style, high class.
  • Cons: First time at Keeneland, distance untested, traffic issues in past.
  • Verdict: A top contender. His pedigree and talent scream Derby prep winner.

7. Admiral Dennis (Program #7, Orange)

  • Trainer/Jockey: Brad Cox / Luis Saez
  • Record: 5 starts, 2 wins, 1 third (Life: 5-2-0-1)
  • Speed Figures: 95 (highest), 93, 83, 77, 69
  • Recent Form: Won an AOC at Fair Grounds (1 1/16 miles) in January, then sixth in the Rebel (G2). Modest stakes efforts.
  • Distance: No 1 1/8-mile races, but Rebel (1 1/16 miles) was a wide trip.
  • Workouts: Strong, with a 5F in :59.40 on March 29 at Churchill Downs.
  • Pros: Cox/Saez combo, improving, good gate speed.
  • Cons: Unproven in G1 company, Keeneland debut, inconsistent stakes form.
  • Verdict: A longshot. Needs a big step up to compete here.

Handicap and Predicted Order of Finish

  1. Owen Almighty (#4) – His Tampa Bay Derby win, high speed figures (98), and front-running style give him the edge. Jose Ortiz keeps him rolling early, and his workouts suggest peak form.
  2. Chancer McPatrick (#6) – G1 pedigree and versatility make him a close second. Prat’s tactical ride could see him reel in the leader late.
  3. River Thames (#1) – Pletcher and Ortiz ensure a big effort. His Fountain of Youth run shows he’s ready to stretch out and contend.
  4. Burnham Square (#3) – Holy Bull win and sharp works make him a board hitter. Hernandez keeps him in the mix.
  5. East Avenue (#5) – Keeneland win is a plus, but recent flops temper expectations. Blinkers might spark a rebound.
  6. Render Judgment (#2) – Distance suits, but he’s outclassed by the top tier.
  7. Admiral Dennis (#7) – Needs more seasoning to challenge this field.

Betting Strategy

  • Win/Place: Owen Almighty (#4)
  • Exacta Box: Owen Almighty (#4) / Chancer McPatrick (#6) / River Thames (#1)
  • Longshot to Show: Burnham Square (#3)

Read the analysis, predictions, and betting strategy for the 2025 Toyota Blue Grass using Brisnet PPs.

NOTE: The analysis and predictions are for informational purposes only and there is no guarantee, implied or otherwise, for success using this prediction. Do your own research and wager responsibly. TheFreePPs.com nor any of its principals are responsible for any losses that may be incurred using this information.