Keeneland: 2016 Queen Elizabeth II Odds, Analysis

The G1 $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II is today’s feature at Keeneland.

Distance: 1 1/18 miles
Surface: Turf
Age: 3 Year Old Fillies
Weather Forecast: 80° with 10% chance of rain

The field with odds and Wiz Capper’s analysis of the race:

1. Catch a Glimpse — 2 to 1. Florent Geroux. Won the 2015 running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on the Turf here last year over a yielding track going 1 mile. Off the board in career opener at Saratoga in a race that was moved to the sloppy main track. Reeled off 8 straight wins before a second place finish in the G2 Lake Placid last time out. Winner of the Belmont Oaks Invitational, a BC Challenge series race, will make her final prep for the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf.
2. On Leave — 5 to 1. Jose Ortiz. Winner of all four starts in 2016 after adding Lasix. Steadily improving Beyer numbers in each career start culminating with a nice win in the G2 Sands Point on the inner at Belmont in last. Picks up 5 lbs. and trainer is 0 for 5 at the meet, so far. This is her toughest test to date.
3. Stays in Vegas — 12 to 1. F Prat. Three for five on the lawn for Hollendorfer. Hasn’t raced since August 20 when 3rd in the G1 Del Mar Oaks after giving up a 2 1/2 length lead in deep stretch at today’s distance. Timing will be everything for this miss but appears to be over matched considering that Harmonize, the Del Mar Oaks winner, is also in here.
4. Harmonize — 8 to 1. J Alvarado. Hall of Fame trainer Mott added blinkers two back vs. Catch a Glimpse in the Oaks Invitational when finishing 5th before taking the Del Mar Oaks last time out. Deep closer who took the G3 Jessamine at 2 before a 7th place finish in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf last year. Toss that one and the inner track tries at Belmont and she’s got a shot.
5. Hawksmoor — 6 to 1. Corey Lanerie. Euro runner comes to the States to find comfort with Lasix for the first time. Beaten by 2015 BC Juvenile Filly Turf runner up Alice Springs last time out in Ireland. Gets a 5 lb. break in weight after carrying 126 in each of nine career starts. Firm turf will improve chances.
6. Try Your Luck — 15 to 1. Julien Leparoux. Broke maiden here by 9 at Keeneland Spring meet in April going 1 1/6 miles. Took a long distance event by 7 at Kentucky Downs in last. Picks up a top turf jock in Leparoux for toughest test to date.
7. Time and Motion — 5 to 2. John Velazquez. Steadily improving in each of her 2016 races culminating with a neck victory over Catch a Glimpse in the Lake Placid last time. Deserves second choice status but running style favors softer going.
8. Queen Caroline — 20 to 1. A. Cintron. Hmm. So, she’s won 4 in a row – two at Pimlico, two at Indiana Downs. Owns a second place finish over the track. Doesn’t belong.
9. Mokat — 12 to 1. Kent Desormeaux. Another exiting the Del Mar Oaks when 3 to 1 favorite. Entering here with just two lifetime victories off a 4th place finish in last makes me think that race may be key. 13th behind Cathryn Sophia in Kentucky Oaks and twice beaten by Songbird — all on dirt — but a return to the lawn gives this girl a shot albeit distance is a concern. Shot with the Kid at a price.

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