Woodbine: 2025 E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1) Analysis, Picks, PPs

The E.P. Taylor Stakes (G1) is a prestigious 1 1/4-mile turf contest for fillies and mares three years old and upward, set for Saturday, August 16, 2025, at Woodbine Racetrack. With a purse of $750,000 (plus $150,000 for state-breds), this event is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series, offering the winner an automatic berth in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar. The field of seven features a mix of proven graded stakes performers and emerging talents, headlined by the dominant favorite She Feels Pretty, who brings top-class form from recent Grade 1 victories.

Based on the free past performances, and 45 years of handicapping experience, we’ll apply a proprietary algorithm, which weighs factors like recent form, performance ratings, running styles, pace matchups, trainer/jockey stats, and workout patterns. The race’s pace benchmarks are Early Pace Benchmarks: 93/101, Late Pace Benchmark: 92/101, suggesting a moderate early tempo that could favor horses with strong closing ability on Woodbine’s expansive turf course. Weather forecasts indicate firm turf conditions, which should play to versatile runners.

Pace Scenario and Race Shape

This field lacks a dedicated front-runner, pointing to a tactical pace. Horses like Caitlinhergrtness and Hurricane Clair show early speed metrics capable of setting or pressing the pace, but most entrants are stalkers or closers. Expect a controlled early fraction, with mid-pack runners like She Feels Pretty and Ready for Shirl benefiting from a late surge. The algorithm projects a pace that aligns with the benchmarks, rewarding horses with balanced early speed metrics (around 90-95) and high final speed metrics (95+).

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

We’ll rank contenders based on composite ratings, recent performance ratings, form cycles, and algorithmic projections, using neutral descriptive terms derived from the data.

1. Venencia (12/1, Trainer: Michael J. Doyle, Jockey: Rafael M. Hernandez)
   Composite Rating: 157.8 (2nd). Career Performance Ratings: 95 (Lifetime), 95 (2025), 93 (2024). Running Style: Stalker.
   This 5-year-old mare has been consistent in graded company, finishing third in her last outing (Canadian S.-G2 at Woodbine, performance rating 95). Her early speed metrics (79/78) in that race suggest she can track a moderate pace, and her final speed metric (108) indicates closing power. However, she’s 0-for-5 in graded stakes this year, and the algorithm flags a drop to a lower-percentage trainer. Best as a underneath play in exotics. Projected Finish: 4th-5th.
2. Literate (20/1, Trainer: Martin Drexler, Jockey: Sahin Civaci)
   Composite Rating: 144.9 (5th). Career Performance Ratings: 94 (Lifetime), 94 (2025), 92 (2024). Running Style: Presser.
   Coming off a win in the Trillium S.-G3 (performance rating 91), this 5-year-old has sharp recent form on all-weather but limited turf success (0-for-4). Her early speed metrics (83/87) fit the benchmarks, but final speed metrics (93) lag behind top contenders. Trainer Drexler (20% win rate in 2025) and hot jockey Civaci (22% wins) add upside, but her performance ratings are below the average winning level here. Algorithm sees her as a longshot for minor awards. Projected Finish: 6th-7th.
3. Diamond Rain (6/1, Trainer: Charles Appleby, Jockey: William Buick)
   Composite Rating: Inferred high based on overseas form (algorithm estimates ~160+). Career Performance Ratings: Strong international marks, with recent wins at 10-12 furlongs. Running Style: Mid-pack closer.
   This Godolphin-owned 4-year-old ships from Europe with a four-win streak, including a Group 3 at Newcastle (performance equivalent ~95+). Her pedigree (Shamardal out of a stamina-laden dam) suits the distance, and trainer Appleby excels with shippers (26% win rate). Limited North American data, but algorithmic adjustment for class projects her as a threat if she adapts to Woodbine turf. Recent 50-day layoff is a minor concern. Projected Finish: 2nd-3rd.
4. She Feels Pretty (3/5, Trainer: Cherie DeVaux, Jockey: John R. Velazquez)
   Composite Rating: 177.1 (1st). Career Performance Ratings: 102 (Lifetime), 99 (2025), 102 (2024). Running Style: Presser.
   The standout here, this 4-year-old has won five of her last seven, including Grade 1 scores in the QEII Cup and New York S. (performance ratings 102 and 91). Her early speed metrics (88/94 in recent) allow positional versatility, and final speed metrics (99+) dominate the field. Best turf performance rating (102) is the highest among starters, and she’s 7-for-11 on grass. Jockey Velazquez (33% wins in limited 2025 starts) and sharp workouts boost her. Algorithm gives her a 65% win probability. Projected Finish: 1st.
5. Caitlinhergrtness (8/1, Trainer: Kevin Attard, Jockey: Flavien Prat)
   Composite Rating: 155.1 (3rd). Career Performance Ratings: 97 (Lifetime), 96 (2025), 97 (2024). Running Style: Early-presser.
   This Ontario-bred 4-year-old ran second in the Trillium S.-G3 last out (performance rating 90) and won the Belle Mahone S.-G3 prior (rating 96). Her early speed metrics (92/94) could control the pace, but she’s failed as the favorite twice recently. Turf record (1-for-3) is solid, and trainer Attard (17% wins) has her sharp off workouts. Algorithm views her as a pace factor but vulnerable late. Projected Finish: 3rd-4th.
6. Hurricane Clair (20/1, Trainer: Martin Drexler, Jockey: Sahin Civaci)
   Composite Rating: 121.6 (6th). Career Performance Ratings: 94 (Lifetime), 94 (2025), 88 (2024). Running Style: Early-presser.
   Fresh off an optional claimer win (performance rating 94), this 4-year-old has graded experience but lower ratings overall. Early speed metrics (86/91) fit, but final speed (94) is subpar for this level. Trainer Drexler (20% wins) and jockey Civaci provide value, but she’s stepping up in class. Algorithm pegs her for a pace-pressing role before fading. Projected Finish: 5th-6th.
7. Ready for Shirl (7/2, Trainer: Roger L. Attfield, Jockey: Javier Castellano)
   Composite Rating: 151.7 (4th). Career Performance Ratings: 97 (Lifetime), 97 (2025), 88 (2024). Running Style: Stalker.
   Winner of the Canadian S.-G2 last out (performance rating 96), this 4-year-old has turf affinity (3-for-7) and strong closing metrics (81/79 early, 108 final). Pedigree screams stamina, and she’s 2-for-5 at Woodbine. Trainer Attfield (18% wins) excels in stakes, but recent form cycle shows inconsistency. Algorithm likes her as the main danger to the favorite. Projected Finish: 2nd.

Algorithmic Predictions

Our model, incorporating historical data from similar Woodbine turf stakes, projects:

• Win Probability: She Feels Pretty (65%), Ready for Shirl (15%), Diamond Rain (10%), Caitlinhergrtness (5%), Others (5%).
• Exacta Box: 4-7, 4-3.
• Value Play: Diamond Rain as an upset candidate due to international class.

Wagering Strategy

With a short field and heavy favorite, focus on value in exotics. Suggested bets (assuming $2 units):

• Win/Place: $10 Win on #4 She Feels Pretty (conservative play for the likely winner).
• Exacta: $5 Exacta Box 4-7 ($10 total) – Pairs the top two algorithmic picks.
• Trifecta: $1 Trifecta Key 4 with 3,5,7 ($6 total) – Covers the favorite on top with logical underneath runners.
• Superfecta: $0.20 Superfecta 4/3,7/1,3,5,7/1,2,3,5,6,7 ($9.60 total) – Low-cost hedge for chaos.
• Multi-Race: Include #4 in Pick 3 legs (Races 7-9) for leverage.

Bankroll allocation: 50% on straight bets, 50% on exotics. Avoid heavy investment given the favorite’s dominance.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly. Picks are based on free past performances handicapping, historical data, and our proprietary algorithm. TheFreePPs.com provides links to publicly available racing data and is not affiliated with linked sites. All wagering should be done responsibly. TheFreePPs.com is not responsible for losses incurred using this information.

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