Saratoga: Zulu Kingdom Looms Large In (G2) Hall of Fame Stakes

Race Overview: The G2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes is a 1-mile turf race for three-year-olds at Saratoga on August 1, 2025, with a purse of $400,000. The race features a competitive field of nine horses, with lasix prohibited within 48 hours per HISA rules. The turf rail is set at 9 feet, and the race may be transferred to the main track if conditions warrant, potentially affecting its graded status. The Early Speed Benchmarks (88/92) and Final Speed Benchmark (87/92) suggest a moderate early pace with a balanced late kick required.

Contender Analysis

1. Mi Bago (8/1, Ortiz Jr., Casse)

• Composite Rating: 149.4 (5th)
• Performance Ratings: 97 (Career), 97 (2025), 92 (2024)
• Recent Form: Consistent performer with 5 wins in 11 starts, including a strong win in the Colonel Liam Stakes (1m, turf) on March 1, 2025, at Gulfstream (Performance Rating: 97). Faded to 4th in the Penn Mile (G3) on June 27, 2025, after setting the pace (Performance Rating: 82).
• Running Style: Front-Runner (E8), likely to set or press the pace. Early Speed Metrics (77/75 in Penn Mile) suggest he can handle the projected Early Speed Benchmarks (88/92) but may tire if pressured.
• Strengths: High-percentage jockey (Ortiz Jr., 30% win rate), sharp recent 4f workout (July 25, :48.8), and proven at 1 mile on turf (3 wins in 7 turf starts). Trainer Casse excels with beaten favorites (28% win rate).
• Weaknesses: Failed as the favorite in his last two starts, suggesting vulnerability under pressure. Performance Ratings rank mid-pack compared to top contenders.
• Turf Ability: Strong turf record (3-7, $328,910), with a pedigree (Vekoma) suited for grass (15% turf win rate).
• Verdict: Likely to be forwardly placed but may struggle to hold off stronger closers in this field.

2. Luther (3/1, Rosario, Fellowes)

• Composite Rating: 160.2 (2nd)
• Performance Ratings: 101 (Career), 101 (2025), Unknown (2024, limited U.S. data)
• Recent Form: European import with a strong 3rd in the Belmont Derby (G1) on July 4, 2025, at Saratoga (Performance Rating: 101, highest in the field). Showed a strong late rally despite a wide trip.
• Running Style: Closer (S0), excels tracking a moderate pace and closing late (Final Speed Metric: 104 in Belmont Derby). Fits the race’s Final Speed Benchmark (87-92).
• Strengths: Highest Performance Rating in the field, proven at graded stakes level, and suited to 1 mile (1 win, 1 second in European 1m races). Rosario’s tactical riding (20% win rate) is a plus.
• Weaknesses: Limited U.S. experience (1 start at Saratoga, 3rd). Trainer Fellowes has no starts at the meet, making local form uncertain.
• Turf Ability: Excellent turf pedigree (Frankel, 17% turf win rate) and 2-7 on grass, including a stakes win in Europe.
• Verdict: Strong contender with the speed and class to capitalize on a moderate pace, especially if he gets a clean trip.

3. Tiz Dashing (15/1, Castellano, Tagg)

• Composite Rating: 142.4 (8th)
• Performance Ratings: 90 (Career), 90 (2025), 80 (2024)
• Recent Form: Consistent placer, finishing 3rd in the Manila Stakes (G3) on July 4, 2025, at Saratoga (Performance Rating: 90). Showed late gain but lacked a winning punch.
• Running Style: Stalker (P4), typically sits mid-pack and rallies (Final Speed Metric: 87 in Manila). Matches the race’s Early Speed Benchmarks and Final Speed Benchmark moderately well.
• Strengths: Recent sharp 4f workout (July 25, :48.8) and experience at Saratoga (3rd in Manila). Pedigree (Tiz the Law, 14% turf win rate) supports turf ability.
• Weaknesses: Only 1 win in 6 starts, and Castellano’s 0% win rate at the meet (0-27) is concerning. Low Composite Rating suggests he’s outclassed.
• Turf Ability: 1-6 on turf, with a solid but unspectacular record.
• Verdict: Likely to hit the board but lacks the firepower to win against top-tier competition.

4. Maui Strong (12/1, Alvarado, Romans)

• Composite Rating: 146.6 (6th)
• Performance Ratings: 90 (Career), 90 (2025), 85 (2024)
• Recent Form: Competitive in graded stakes, finishing 4th in the Manila Stakes (G3) on July 4, 2025, beaten only 2 lengths (Performance Rating: 89). Placed 3rd in the Transylvania (G3) and 2nd in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes.
• Running Style: Stalker/Front-Runner (E/P5), can sit close or stalk (Early Speed Metrics: 97/98, Final Speed Metric: 81 in Manila). Versatile enough to adapt to the race’s pace.
• Strengths: Consistent at 1 mile (1-3, $93,700) and showed grit in recent starts. Trainer Romans is in form (67% win rate at meet). Sharp 4f workout (July 26, :49.8).
• Weaknesses: Poor trainer graded stakes record (2% wins in 60 starts). Alvarado’s 10% win rate is modest.
• Turf Ability: 1-8 on turf, with a Kitten’s Joy pedigree (13% turf win rate) suited for grass.
• Verdict: Capable of a minor placing but needs a perfect trip to challenge the top tier.

5. Clever Again (6/1, Ortiz, Asmussen)

• Composite Rating: 153.5 (4th)
• Performance Ratings: 99 (Career), 99 (2025), 77 (2024)
• Recent Form: Strong dirt form, winning the Hot Springs Stakes on March 30, 2025, at Oaklawn (Performance Rating: 99). Disappointed in the Preakness (G1, 9th) and Ohio Derby (G3, 6th).
• Running Style: Front-Runner (E8), likely to press or set the pace if transferred to dirt (Early Speed Metrics: 94/97 in Ohio Derby). Unknown on turf.
• Strengths: High-percentage jockey (Ortiz, 22% win rate) and trainer (Asmussen, 43% at meet, 17% in graded stakes). Pedigree (American Pharoah, 13% turf win rate) suggests potential turf success. Recent 5f workout (July 20, :59.8) is sharp.
• Weaknesses: No turf experience, a significant concern for a turf race. Recent form on dirt has been inconsistent.
• Turf Ability: Untested on grass, but breeding suggests he could adapt.
• Verdict: Intriguing if the race moves to dirt (MTO candidate), but risky on turf given lack of experience.

6. Out On Bail (15/1, Velazquez, Maker)

• Composite Rating: 145.9 (7th)
• Performance Ratings: 87 (Career), 87 (2025), 87 (2024)
• Recent Form: Placed 3rd in the Penn Mile (G3) on June 27, 2025 (Performance Rating: 84), showing late run. Strong at shorter distances (2-6 on turf, including a Saratoga win).
• Running Style: Stalker/Front-Runner (E/P8), can stalk or press (Early Speed Metrics: 75/73, Final Speed Metric: 97 in Penn Mile). Fits the race’s Final Speed Benchmark.
• Strengths: Proven at Saratoga (2-2, $132,000) and paired with Velazquez (11% win rate). Trainer Maker’s 67% win rate with this jockey in last 60 days is a plus.
• Weaknesses: Poor graded stakes trainer record (7% wins in 293 starts). Performance Ratings are among the lowest in the field.
• Turf Ability: Solid turf record (2-6, $287,920), with a Tiz the Law pedigree (14% turf win rate).
• Verdict: Likely to be competitive for a minor placing but outclassed for the win.

7. Zulu Kingdom (6/5, Prat, Brown)

• Composite Rating: 170.1 (1st)
• Performance Ratings: 99 (Career), 99 (2025), 92 (2024)
• Recent Form: Dominant with 6 wins in 7 starts, including the Manila Stakes (G3) on July 4, 2025, at Saratoga (Performance Rating: 91) and the American Turf (G1) on May 3, 2025 (Performance Rating: 94). Only loss was a 7th in the BC Juvenile Turf (G1).
• Running Style: Stalker/Front-Runner (E/P6), versatile in setting or stalking (Early Speed Metrics: 96/98, Final Speed Metric: 85 in Manila). Perfectly matches the race’s Early Speed Benchmarks and Final Speed Benchmark.
• Strengths: Top Composite Rating, high-percentage trainer (Brown, 20% win rate, 22% in graded stakes), and jockey (Prat, 13% win rate, 25% on turf). Undefeated at Saratoga (2-2). Recent 4f workout (July 25, :49.8) is solid.
• Weaknesses: Heavy favorite status (6/5) may offer low value. Faced weaker fields in some wins.
• Turf Ability: Exceptional turf record (6-7, $910,338), with a Ten Sovereigns pedigree (14% turf win rate).
• Verdict: The horse to beat, with proven class, speed, and local success.

8. Tank (8/1, Saez, David)

• Composite Rating: 155.4 (3rd)
• Performance Ratings: 100 (Career), 100 (2025), 83 (2024)
• Recent Form: Ran a game 4th in the Belmont Derby (G1) on July 4, 2025, beaten only 1.4 lengths (Performance Rating: 100, second-highest in the field). Won back-to-back stakes at Gulfstream in May and June 2025.
• Running Style: Stalker/Front-Runner (E/P8), can lead or stalk (Early Speed Metrics: 97/102, Final Speed Metric: 94 in Belmont Derby). Strong fit for the race’s Early Speed Benchmarks and Final Speed Benchmark.
• Strengths: High Performance Rating in last start and sharp 4f workout (July 27, :49.8). Saez’s 14% win rate and 1-mile success (2-3, $153,140) are positives.
• Weaknesses: Poor trainer graded stakes record (5% wins in 20 starts). May need a perfect trip to win.
• Turf Ability: Strong turf record (3-7, $246,330), with an Adios Charlie pedigree (10% turf win rate).
• Verdict: Serious contender with recent form and speed to challenge the favorite.

9. McAfee (MTO, 1/1, Rider TBA, Dutrow) – Main Track Only

• Composite Rating: 140.3 (9th)
• Performance Ratings: 96 (Career), 96 (2025), 83 (2024)
• Recent Form: Placed 3rd in the Ohio Derby (G3) on dirt (Performance Rating: 92). No turf experience, entered as MTO.
• Running Style: Stalker (P5), untested on turf but shows mid-pack stalking on dirt (Early Speed Metrics: 90/94, Final Speed Metric: 87 in Ohio Derby).
• Strengths: Trainer Dutrow’s 19% win rate in routes and sharp 4f workout (July 25, :46.8). Pedigree (Cloud Computing, 6% turf win rate) suggests some turf potential.
• Weaknesses: No turf starts, and trainer’s 5% win rate in first-on-grass scenarios is poor. Unknown rider is a concern.
• Turf Ability: Untested, but dam’s pedigree (Uncle Mo, 13% turf win rate) offers hope.
• Verdict: Only relevant if the race moves to dirt, where he could be competitive but is outclassed on turf.

Race Dynamics and Pace Analysis

• Pace Scenario: The Early Speed Benchmarks (88/92) and Final Speed Benchmark (87/92) suggest a moderate early pace with a balanced late run. Mi Bago (Front-Runner, E8) and possibly Tank or Zulu Kingdom (Stalker/Front-Runner, E/P8, E/P6) will set or press the pace. Luther (Closer, S0) and Out On Bail (Stalker/Front-Runner, E/P8), with strong Final Speed Metrics (104 and 97, respectively), can capitalize on a contested early tempo.
• Turf Conditions: The rail at 9 feet favors horses with inside or tactical positions. The Saratoga inner turf typically rewards horses with strong finishing kicks, benefiting closers like Luther.
• Main Track Scenario: If transferred to dirt, Clever Again and McAfee (MTO) become more relevant, but Zulu Kingdom and Tank have shown dirt form in prior starts.

Predictions

1. Zulu Kingdom (7): The class of the field with a perfect 2-2 record at Saratoga and a versatile Running Style. His Composite Rating (170.1) and consistent high Performance Ratings (99 in 2025) make him the horse to beat. Prat and Brown’s high-percentage combination seals the deal.
2. Luther (2): Strong European form and a game 3rd in the Belmont Derby (Performance Rating: 101) make him a major threat. His Closing Running Style fits the race’s dynamics, and Rosario’s tactical riding is a plus.
3. Tank (8): Recent 4th in the Belmont Derby (Performance Rating: 100) shows he can compete with top company. His Stalker/Front-Runner Running Style and Saez’s riding keep him in the mix for a minor placing.
4. Maui Strong (4): Consistent at this level and capable of a minor award, but likely needs a pace collapse to hit the top three.

Exotics Considerations:

• Mi Bago (1): Could hold for a minor placing if he controls the pace as a Front-Runner.
• Out On Bail (6): Local success and strong Final Speed Metric make him a candidate for the superfecta.
• Clever Again (5): Risky on turf but could surprise if he adapts or the race moves to dirt.

Wagering Strategy

• Win/Place Bet: Zulu Kingdom (7) – Despite low odds (6/5), his consistency and class make him a strong anchor for win and place bets.
• Exacta ($1): Box Zulu Kingdom (7) and Luther (2). Cost: $2.
• Rationale: These two stand out in terms of class and form, with Luther’s Closing Running Style complementing Zulu Kingdom’s Stalker/Front-Runner versatility.
• Trifecta ($0.50): Key Zulu Kingdom (7) and Luther (2) in 1st and 2nd, with Tank (8), Maui Strong (4), and Out On Bail (6) in 3rd. Structure: 7,2 / 7,2 / 8,4,6. Cost: $6.
• Rationale: Covers the top two contenders while including three horses capable of hitting the board.
• Superfecta ($0.10): Key Zulu Kingdom (7) in 1st, Luther (2) in 2nd, Tank (8) and Maui Strong (4) in 3rd, and add Mi Bago (1) and Out On Bail (6) in 4th. Structure: 7 / 2 / 8,4 / 8,4,1,6. Cost: $2.40.
• Rationale: Focuses on the top contenders while spreading in the lower placings for value.
• Double ($1): Race 7: Zulu Kingdom (7), Luther (2) / Race 8: Use top two contenders from Race 8 (pending PPs). Cost: $4 (assuming two horses in Race 8).
• Pick 3 ($1): Race 7: Zulu Kingdom (7), Luther (2) / Race 8: Top two contenders / Race 9: Top two contenders. Cost: $8 (assuming two horses per race).
• Pick 4 ($0.50): Race 7: Zulu Kingdom (7), Luther (2) / Race 8: Top two / Race 9: Top two / Race 10: Top three. Cost: $12 (assuming two horses in Races 8-9, three in Race 10).

Main Track Only (MTO) Consideration: If the race moves to dirt, shift focus to Clever Again (5) and McAfee (9) for win/place bets and include them in exotics with Zulu Kingdom (7) and Tank (8), who have dirt form.

Disclaimer

Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly. Picks are based on free past performances handicapping, historical data, and our proprietary algorithm. TheFreePPs.com provides links to publicly available racing data and is not affiliated with linked sites. All wagering should be done responsibly. TheFreePPs.com is not responsible for losses incurred using this information.

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