Saratoga: 2025 Jim Dandy Stakes Analysis, Picks, Free PPs

Track and Conditions

• Distance: 1⅛ miles (9 furlongs), dirt
• Track: Saratoga (SAR)
• Expected Conditions: Fast dirt (based on Saratoga trends and weather forecasts for July 26, 2025, indicating clear skies)
• Post Time: 5:41 PM EDT
• Pace Benchmarks: Early Pace: 91/97, Late Pace: 89, Performance Rating: 97
• Rail Bias: Rail post wins at a 22% clip, favoring inside draws.

Contender Analysis

1. Baeza (PP1, 8-1)

• Sire/Dam: McKinzie / Puca
• Trainer/Jockey: John Shirreffs / Hector Berrios
• Composite Rating: 151.7 (2nd)
• Record: 6: 1-2-2, $848,500 (Life); 5: 1-2-2, $848,000 (2025)
• Best Performance Rating: 107 (Fast, SA Derby-G1, 2nd)
• Running Style: E/P (4), versatile stalker/pace-presser
• Recent Form:
  • 3rd in Belmont S. (G1, 10f, gd, 104) behind Sovereignty and Journalism
  • 3rd in Kentucky Derby (G1, 10f, sys, 102) behind Sovereignty and Journalism
  • 2nd in SA Derby (G1, 9f, ft, 107) to Journalism
• Strengths:
  • Highest dirt Performance Rating (107) in the field, earned in the SA Derby.
  • Consistent in G1 races, with three straight placings.
  • Sharp 5f workout (Jul-18, :59.4, 1/1 at SA) shows readiness.
  • Rail post (22% win rate) provides a tactical advantage.
  • Shirreffs excels with routes (25% win, 64% ITM with E/P types).
• Weaknesses:
  • 49-day layoff since Belmont S. may affect sharpness.
  • Jockey Berrios has a 0% win rate this meet (0-0-0 in 0 starts), though sample size is small.
  • No wins in 2025 despite strong placings.
• Evaluation: Baeza’s consistency in top-tier races and high Performance Rating make him a major contender. The rail draw and ability to stalk suit the expected moderate pace, but the layoff and unproven jockey are concerns.

2. Sandman (PP2, 5-1)

• Sire/Dam: Tapit / Distorted Music
• Trainer/Jockey: Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz
• Composite Rating: 149.0 (3rd)
• Record: 10: 3-1-3, $1,474,595 (Life); 5: 1-1-2, $1,310,000 (2025)
• Best Performance Rating: 104 (Fast, Preakness-G1, 3rd)
• Running Style: S (0), deep closer
• Recent Form:
  • 3rd in Preakness (G1, 9.5f, ft, 104) behind Journalism and Gosger
  • 7th in Kentucky Derby (G1, 10f, sys, 90), hindered by trouble
  • 1st in Arkansas Derby (G1, 9f, ft, 101), commanding victory
• Strengths:
  • G1 winner (Arkansas Derby) with a strong rally in the Preakness.
  • High-percentage jockey Jose Ortiz (26% win this meet).
  • Hot trainer/jockey combo (33% win, 70% ITM last 14 days).
  • Blinkers added today may improve focus (15% win for Casse with first-time blinkers).
  • Closing style suits Saratoga’s stretch-running bias.
• Weaknesses:
  • 69-day layoff since Preakness, the longest in the field.
  • Closer style depends on a fast pace, which may not materialize.
  • Performance Ratings trail Baeza and Sovereignty.
• Evaluation: Sandman’s G1 win and closing ability make him dangerous, especially with Ortiz and blinkers. However, the layoff and pace dependency are risks in a small field.

3. Mo Plex (PP3, 6-1)

• Sire/Dam: Complexity / Mo Joy
• Trainer/Jockey: Jeremiah Englehart / Manuel Franco
• Composite Rating: 139.5 (5th)
• Record: 8: 5-1-2, $745,000 (Life); 3: 2-0-1, $397,500 (2025)
• Best Performance Rating: 97 (Fast, Ohio Derby-G3, 1st)
• Running Style: E/P (8), speed-oriented pace-presser
• Recent Form:
  • 1st in Ohio Derby (G3, 9f, ft, 97), wire-to-wire
  • 1st in Bay Shore (Listed, 7f, ft, 94), dominant front-running effort
  • 3rd in Gander (Listed, 8f, ft, 91), battled gamely
• Strengths:
  • 5-for-8 lifetime, with a recent G3 win showing durability.
  • Early speed (E/P 8) could control the pace in a field lacking a true front-runner.
  • Hot trainer Englehart (33% win, 67% ITM last 14 days).
  • Perfect 2-for-2 at Saratoga (G3 Sanford, Listed Funny Cide).
  • Second off layoff (26% win for Englehart).
• Weaknesses:
  • Lower Performance Ratings (best 97) compared to top contenders.
  • Jockey Franco’s 7% win rate this meet is a concern.
  • Unproven in G1 company (0-1-1 in graded stakes).
• Evaluation: Mo Plex’s speed and Saratoga success make him a pace factor, but his lower Performance Ratings and G1 inexperience suggest he may struggle against closers.

4. Hill Road (PP4, 7-2)

• Sire/Dam: Quality Road / Exotic Notion
• Trainer/Jockey: Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr.
• Composite Rating: 144.9 (4th)
• Record: 6: 2-0-2, $396,606 (Life); 3: 1-0-1, $205,000 (2025)
• Best Performance Rating: 101 (Fast, Belmont S.-G1, 5th; BC Juvenile-G1, 3rd)
• Running Style: S (0), closer
• Recent Form:
  • 5th in Belmont S. (G1, 10f, gd, 101), closed well
  • 1st in Peter Pan (G3, 9f, ft, 94), strong finish
  • 3rd in Tampa Bay Derby (G3, 8.5f, ft, 87), needed more
• Strengths:
  • Elite jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. (32% win this meet, 9-6-0 last 7 days).
  • Trainer Brown excels with routes (24% win, 58% ITM) and graded stakes (22% win).
  • Competitive in G1s (BC Juvenile, Belmont S.) with closing ability.
  • Solid Performance Ratings (101 in two G1s).
• Weaknesses:
  • 49-day layoff since Belmont S.
  • Closer style requires a fast pace to maximize his rally.
  • Only 1-for-3 in 2025, with fewer wins than others.
• Evaluation: Hill Road’s closing style and top jockey/trainer combo make him a threat, particularly with a favorable pace. His G3 win and G1 placings keep him in the mix.

5. Sovereignty (PP5, 1-1)

• Sire/Dam: Into Mischief / Crowned
• Trainer/Jockey: Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado
• Composite Rating: 154.0 (1st)
• Record: 7: 4-2-0, $4,872,800 (Life); 4: 3-1-0, $4,729,520 (2025)
• Best Performance Rating: 111 (Off, Belmont S.-G1, 1st)
• Running Style: S (2), versatile closer/stalker
• Recent Form:
  • 1st in Belmont S. (G1, 10f, gd, 111), dominant
  • 1st in Kentucky Derby (G1, 10f, sys, 103), outdueled Journalism
  • 2nd in Florida Derby (G1, 9f, ft, 94), rallied strongly
• Strengths:
  • Highest Performance Rating (111, Belmont S.), far superior to the field.
  • Dual G1 winner (Belmont, Kentucky Derby) with a 4-for-7 record.
  • Mott excels with graded stakes (21% win) and winners off last race (26% win).
  • 1-for-2 at Saratoga, including G1 Belmont win.
  • Versatile running style adapts to any pace scenario.
• Weaknesses:
  • 49-day layoff, though Mott’s horses often fire fresh.
  • Outside post (PP5) is less favorable at Saratoga.
  • Jockey Alvarado’s 10% win rate this meet trails Ortiz brothers.
• Evaluation: Sovereignty’s class, top Performance Rating, and Saratoga G1 win make him the horse to beat. The outside post is a minor concern, but his versatility mitigates it.

Pace Scenario

• Pace Projection: Moderate. Mo Plex (E/P 8) is the likely pace-setter, with Baeza (E/P 4) stalking. Sovereignty (S 2) and Hill Road (S 0) will sit mid-pack, while Sandman (S 0) closes from the rear.
• Pace Benchmarks: Early Pace: 91/97, Late Pace: 89, Performance Rating: 97. This suggests a controlled early pace, favoring tactical speed (Mo Plex, Baeza) or versatile closers (Sovereignty).
• Late Pace: 89 indicates stretch runners like Sovereignty and Hill Road can capitalize if the pace is honest.

Predictions

1. Sovereignty (5): His superior Performance Rating (111), dual G1 wins, and Saratoga form make him the top pick. He should stalk mid-pack and close powerfully, overcoming the outside post.
2. Baeza (1): The rail draw, high Performance Rating (107), and G1 consistency make him a strong contender. He can stalk Mo Plex and hold off closers in a moderate pace.
3. Hill Road (4): Irad Ortiz and Chad Brown boost his chances. His closing style and G3 win suggest a board finish if the pace quickens.
4. Sandman (2): A G1 winner with a strong close, but the long layoff and pace dependency lower his ranking. Blinkers and Ortiz could spark a rally.
5. Mo Plex (3): His speed and Saratoga record are assets, but lower Performance Ratings and G1 inexperience make him vulnerable late.

Wagering Strategy

With a five-horse field, exotic bets offer value despite Sovereignty’s short odds (1-1). Focus on exactas and trifectas to maximize returns, leveraging Sovereignty and Baeza’s likely dominance.

• Win Bet: $10 on Sovereignty (5). His class and form make him the most likely winner.
• Exacta Box ($1, 2×2): $4 total on Sovereignty (5) and Baeza (1). Covers the top two, with Baeza’s rail and Performance Rating offering upset potential.
  • Cost: $4
• Trifecta Key ($0.50): Key Sovereignty (5) on top with Baeza (1), Hill Road (4), and Sandman (2) in second and third.
  • Structure: 5 / 1,4,2 / 1,4,2
  • Cost: $9 (6 combinations x $0.50)
• Trifecta Part-Wheel ($0.50): For value, play Baeza (1) on top with Sovereignty (5) and Hill Road (4) in second, and Sovereignty (5), Hill Road (4), Sandman (2) in third.
  • Structure: 1 / 5,4 / 5,4,2
  • Cost: $6 (6 combinations x $0.50)
• Total Cost: $29

Note: Skip the superfecta due to low payouts in a small field. For Pick 3 or Double, use Sovereignty and Baeza as singles or pair with logical contenders in later races based on past performances.

Final Notes

Sovereignty’s G1 dominance and top Performance Rating make him the standout, but Baeza’s rail draw and consistency offer upset potential. Hill Road and Sandman are live for exotics, while Mo Plex could surprise if he controls an uncontested lead. Monitor track conditions and scratches; a sloppy track (unlikely) would favor Sovereignty and Sandman, who excel on off surfaces.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly. Picks are based on free past performances handicapping, historical data, and our proprietary algorithm. TheFreePPs.com provides links to publicly available racing data and is not affiliated with linked sites. All wagering should be done responsibly. TheFreePPs.com is not responsible for losses incurred using this information.

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