Del Mar: 2025 Bing Crosby Stakes Analysis, Picks, Free PPs

The 2025 Bing Crosby Stakes (G1) at Del Mar is a 6-furlong sprint for three-year-olds and upward, with a purse of $400,000. The race features a competitive field of nine horses, with several standout contenders based on past performances. Here is our detailed handicapping analysis of the Bing Crosby, leveraging the past performances running lines, handicapping experience, and applying lessons from previous stakes post-race analyses, focusing on key angles such as early speed, class, recent form, and track-specific performance.

Race Overview

• Distance: 6 furlongs
• Surface: Dirt
• Pace Benchmarks: Early Pace 98/108, Late Pace: 100/104
• Post Time: 6:32 PM PDT
• Purse: $400,000
• Field Size: 9 runners

Handicapping Analysis

Using the metrics Composite Rating, Pace Benchmarks, and Performance Ratings, the field for the Bing Crosby has been evaluated based on speed, class, form, and Del Mar-specific performance. Key angles derived from the analyses and results of previous races include prioritizing horses with strong early speed, proven graded stakes success, and recent competitive performances at similar distances.

Top Contenders

1. World Record (Post 5, 3/1, Composite Rating: 143.4, 1st)
   • Strengths: Boasts the highest Composite Rating (143.4), indicating superior overall ability. His early speed running style (E 7) aligns with the race’s Pace Benchmarks (E1: 104, E2: 114 in last race), suggesting he can control the pace. Won the Aristides-G3 at 6f on May 31, 2025 (Performance Rating: 92), and ran a strong second in his last start (Aristides-G3, June 31, 2025, Performance Rating: 92). Trainer Rodolphe Brisset (19% win rate in 2025) and jockey Flavien Prat (25% win rate in 2025) are a potent combination. His Performance Ratings at 6f (104, 93) are close to or exceed the average winning speed (100).
   • Concerns: Has not raced in 56 days, which could affect sharpness, though his strong workouts (e.g., 5f in 1:00 on May 23) mitigate this. No prior starts at Del Mar.
   • Angle: His early speed and graded stakes win at the distance make him a top contender, especially with the Amsterdam Stakes angle favoring front-runners.
2. Hejazi (Post 3, 7/2, Composite Rating: 143.0, 2nd)
   • Strengths: High Composite Rating (143.0) and an E/P 7 running style suggest he can press or stalk the pace. Posted a 102 Performance Rating in his last race (OC80k, June 13, 2025), finishing second to Mbagnick. His trainer, Bob Baffert (31% win rate in 2025), and jockey, Juan Hernandez (24% win rate in 2025), are among the meet’s best. Has two starts at Del Mar (both seconds, Performance Ratings: 95, 86), showing track affinity. His early pace figures (E1: 92, E2: 101) are competitive with the benchmarks.
   • Concerns: Failed as the favorite in his last two starts, including a narrow loss to Mbagnick. Recent form shows consistency but lacks a win in 2025 (0-1-0 in 1 start).
   • Angle: His speed and connections make him a major player, with the Amsterdam Stakes angle favoring horses with strong recent form and early speed.
3. Roll On Big Joe (Post 6, 6/1, Composite Rating: 140.8, 4th)
   • Strengths: Comes off a win in the Kelly’s Landing-G3 (6.5f, June 28, 2025, Performance Rating: 97), showcasing his ability to compete at this level. His E/P 7 running style and top Performance Rating at 6f (106 in PlsVrds-G3, Feb 15, 2025) are the highest in the field, surpassing the average winning speed (100). Has a strong 2025 record (4-1-0 in 5 starts) and competitive early pace figures (E1: 94, E2: 99). Trainer Robert Hess Jr. (17% win rate in 2025) and jockey Julien Leparoux add reliability.
   • Concerns: Only 0-1-0 in two Del Mar starts, though his second-place finish (Performance Rating: 95) shows he can handle the track. Faces tougher competition here.
   • Angle: His recent graded stakes win and top speed at the distance align with the Amsterdam Stakes angle of prioritizing horses with proven class and speed.
4. Mbagnick (Post 7, 5/1, Composite Rating: 133.9, 7th)
   • Strengths: Won his last start (OC80k, June 13, 2025, Performance Rating: 103), defeating Hejazi, with the highest last-race Performance Rating in the field. His E 7 running style and early pace figures (E1: 94, E2: 102) match the race’s benchmarks. Trainer John Sadler (21% win rate in 2025) is strong, and his recent 5f workout (1:00 on July 14) signals readiness. Has a graded stakes placing (4th in PlsVrds-G3, Feb 15, 2025, Performance Rating: 98).
   • Concerns: Moves up in class from an optional claimer, and his jockey, Armando Ayuso (4% win rate this meet), is a downgrade. Only 0-0-1 in three Del Mar starts.
   • Angle: His recent win and early speed make him a threat, though the class jump and weaker jockey temper expectations.

Others to Consider

• Dr. Venkman (Post 2, 4/1, Composite Rating: 141.8, 3rd): Strong Del Mar record (3-0-0 in 4 starts, Performance Ratings: 105, 103, 96) and a win in the San Diego-G2 (1m, July 27, 2024) highlight his track affinity. However, his E/P 4 running style may leave him vulnerable to faster front-runners, and he faded to second in his last start (Kelly’s Landing-G3). Still, his 19% jockey (Antonio Fresu) and 16% trainer (Mark Glatt) stats are solid.
• Crazy Mason (Post 1, 6/1, Composite Rating: 136.9, 5th): Consistent in 2025 (3-0-1 in 4 starts, Performance Ratings: 100, 95, 96) with a win in the Carter-G2 (7f, Apr 5, 2025). His S 0 running style requires a pace setup, and he has no Del Mar experience. A sharp 4f workout (July 19) suggests readiness, but he may need a hot pace to close effectively.
• Smooth Cruisein (Post 4, 20/1, Composite Rating: 132.8, 8th): A three-year-old with a win in an OC50k (6f, Apr 26, 2025, Performance Rating: 98) and a third in the Triple Bend-G3 (7f, May 31, 2025). His E/P 4 running style and lack of Del Mar experience, combined with a weak trainer (0% win rate), make him a longshot.
• Spirit of Makena (Post 8, 20/1, Composite Rating: 130.3, 9th): Won the Triple Bend-G2 (7f, May 27, 2023, Performance Rating: 95) but has struggled in 2025 (0-0-1 in 2 starts). His E/P 5 running style and poor recent form (Performance Rating: 73 in last start) make him a fade.
• Lovesick Blues (Post 9, 20/1, Composite Rating: 134.5, 6th): A turf-to-dirt angle offers hope, but his Performance Ratings (max 96) are below the average winning speed (100). His 3% trainer win rate in graded stakes and 0% jockey win rate this meet make him unlikely.

Pace Scenario

The Pace Benchmarks suggest a fast early pace, favoring horses with strong running styles. World Record, Hejazi, Roll On Big Joe, and Mbagnick have the early speed to vie for the lead or press closely. Dr. Venkman and Smooth Cruisein can stalk, while Crazy Mason will need a pace collapse to close from the back. The projected pace is moderately fast, with World Record and Hejazi likely setting or pressing the tempo.

Key Handicapping Angles

• Early Speed: Horses with early speed and pace running styles (World Record, Hejazi, Roll On Big Joe, Mbagnick) have an edge in sprints.
• Graded Stakes Form: Recent graded stakes success (Roll On Big Joe, World Record) or competitive placings (Hejazi, Mbagnick) indicate class.
• Del Mar Affinity: Dr. Venkman’s strong Del Mar record (3-0-0 in 4 starts) is a significant factor.
• Recent Form: Horses with Performance Ratings near or above 100 in recent starts (Hejazi, Roll On Big Joe, Mbagnick) are prioritized.

Final Picks

1. World Record: Top Composite Rating, early speed, and a graded stakes win at 6f make him the horse to beat.
2. Hejazi: Strong connections, Del Mar experience, and competitive recent form keep him close.
3. Roll On Big Joe: Recent graded stakes win and top Performance Rating at the distance make him a major threat.
4. Mbagnick: Last-out win and early speed make him dangerous, but the class jump is a concern.

Wagering Strategy

• $2 Win/Place/Show Parlay: $2 Win/Place/Show on World Record (Total: $6). His top Composite Rating and early speed make him the most likely winner.
• $10 $1 Exacta Box: World Record, Hejazi, Roll On Big Joe (3×3, Total: $6). This covers the top three contenders with strong speed and form.
• $2 Quinella: World Record and Hejazi (Total: $2). A cheaper alternative to the exacta, focusing on the top two.
• 50¢ Trifecta Box: World Record, Hejazi, Roll On Big Joe, Mbagnick (4x4x4, Total: $12). Includes the top four for a broader trifecta play.
• $1 Superfecta Key: World Record to win, with Hejazi, Roll On Big Joe, Mbagnick in second through fourth (1x3x3x3, Total: $6). Focuses on World Record on top with the other contenders filling the lower spots.
• $5 Late Double: World Record, Hejazi, Roll On Big Joe in the Bing Crosby Stakes with a single in the next race (TBD, adjust based on next race’s favorite, Total: $15 assuming one horse in the next race).

Total Wagering Cost: $47

Conclusion

The 2025 Bing Crosby Stakes is a competitive sprint, with World Record holding a slight edge due to his top Composite Rating, early speed, and recent graded stakes form. Hejazi and Roll On Big Joe are close behind, with strong connections and proven speed at the distance. Mbagnick is a live longshot if he handles the class jump. The wagering strategy balances value and coverage, focusing on the top contenders while leveraging the Amsterdam Stakes angles of early speed and class.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly. Picks are based on free past performances handicapping, historical data, and our proprietary algorithm. TheFreePPs.com provides links to publicly available racing data and is not affiliated with linked sites. All wagering should be done responsibly. TheFreePPs.com is not responsible for losses incurred using this information.

Related Posts

• 
  Saratoga: 2025 Jockey Club Gold Cup Analysis, Picks, PPs
• 
  2025 Pacific Classic Handicap Analysis
• 
  Remembering Ron Turcotte: Big Red’s Rider