Saratoga: 2025 Suburban Handicap Analysis, Picks, Free PPs

Race Overview

• Distance: 1¼ miles (10 furlongs)
• Surface: Dirt
• Purse: $400,000
• Field: 8 horses
• Pars: E1 (93), E2 (102), Late Speed (92), Final (102)
• Key Conditions: Lasix not allowed within 48 hours (HISA Rule 4212). Weight allowances: Non-winners of a graded stakes at a mile or over in 2025 (2 lbs), 2024 (4 lbs), or any sweepstakes at a mile or over in 2024-25 (6 lbs). Base weight: 124 lbs.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Phileas Fogg (5/1, 120 lbs, Kendrick Carmouche, Gustavo Rodriguez)

• Profile: E/P 6 (Early/Presser, strong early speed). 5-year-old gelding by Astern. Prime Power: 145.3 (2nd).

Strengths

• Recent Form: Strong 2025 campaign (3 starts: 1-2-0, $150,500). Ran 2nd in the Pimlico Special (G3) on May 16, 2025, earning a 104 speed figure, matching his career best.
• Speed Figures: Best dirt speed (104) is above the par (102). Consistently posts competitive figures (93-104 range).
• Jockey/Trainer: Carmouche is hot (7 wins in last 7 days, 20% meet win rate) and excels with E/P types (23%) and routes (24%). Rodriguez is hitting at 18% in 2025.
• Workouts: Sharp 5f breeze on June 28 (1:00.4, 1/5 at Belmont).
• Track Experience: Won at Saratoga (1-1-0-0, $63,250, 95 speed figure).

Weaknesses

• Layoff: 49 days since last race (May 16), slightly concerning but mitigated by sharp workout.
• Graded Stakes: Only 1 graded start (0-1-0), though he ran well in the Pimlico Special.
• Pace Fit: Likely to press or set the pace with Awesome Aaron and Antiquarian. His E/P style suits Saratoga’s dirt, which often favors horses near the front.
• Comment: Phileas Fogg is in peak form, with a versatile running style and a jockey in top form. His ability to stalk or lead makes him a major player, especially if he gets a clean trip.

2. Disarm (8/1, 118 lbs, Joel Rosario, Steven Asmussen)

• Profile: P 2 (Presser). 5-year-old horse by Gun Runner. Prime Power: 140.8 (5th).

Strengths

• Class: Proven at the highest level, with a 2nd in the 2023 Travers (G1, 104 speed figure) and a 3rd in the 2024 Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1, 94 speed figure). Career-best 104 at this distance.
• Saratoga Record: 5 starts (1-1-1, $517,750), including strong performances in graded stakes.
• Trainer: Asmussen is a Hall of Famer, though his 2025 meet win rate is modest (13%).
• Recent Win: Took an OC80k at Oaklawn on March 14, 2025 (97 speed figure), showing he can still compete.

Weaknesses

• Layoff: Over 2 months since last race (April 19, 2025), with no recorded workouts since June 23.
• Inconsistent 2025: Only 2 starts (1-0-0), with a 4th in the Oaklawn H. (G2, 93 speed figure).
• Jockey: Rosario’s meet win rate is low (5%), though he performs well in routes (19%).
• Speed Figures: Recent figures (93-97) are below the par (102).
• Pace Fit: Presser style suits a race with moderate early pace. Likely to sit mid-pack and make a late run.
• Comment: Disarm has the class to compete but needs to overcome the layoff and inconsistent recent form. His Saratoga record and pedigree (Gun Runner) make him a contender, but he’s not at his peak.

3. San Siro (20/1, 118 lbs, Luis Saez, Brendan Walsh)

• Profile: P 4 (Presser). 4-year-old gelding by Classic Empire. Prime Power: 138.2 (6th).

Strengths

• Recent Form: Competitive in 2025 (4 starts: 1-1-0, $139,250). Ran 2nd in the Ben Ali (G3) and 4th in the Pimlico Special (G3), earning a career-best 98 speed figure.
• Jockey: Saez is solid (18% win rate in 2025), with a 22% win rate with Walsh in the last 60 days.

Weaknesses

• Speed Figures: Top figure (98) is below the par (102). Struggles to match top contenders’ speed.
• No Saratoga Experience: 0 starts at the track, a disadvantage in a field with proven Saratoga runners.
• Layoff: 49 days since last race, with no standout workouts.
• Jockey Meet Performance: Saez’s 7% win rate at the meet is poor.
• Pace Fit: Presser style suits a mid-pack trip, but he’ll need to improve to close the gap on leaders.
• Comment: San Siro is improving but faces a class test. His speed figures and lack of Saratoga experience make him a longshot.

4. Locked (8/5, 124 lbs, Jose Ortiz, Todd Pletcher)

• Profile: S 0 (Stalker). 4-year-old colt by Gun Runner. Prime Power: 149.5 (1st).

Strengths

• Class: Top-class performer with wins in the 2024 Cigar Mile (G2, 102 speed figure) and 2025 Santa Anita H. (G1, 106 speed figure, career best). Also won the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) as a juvenile.
• Speed Figures: Best dirt speed (106) is the highest in the field and exceeds the par (102). Consistently posts 95-106 figures.
• Saratoga Record: 2 starts (1-0-1, $70,350), including a 3rd in a maiden race (105 speed figure).
• Jockey/Trainer: Jose Ortiz (14% meet win rate, 27% in routes) and Pletcher (20% in 2025, 21% with shippers) form a potent combination.
• Pedigree: Gun Runner sire and Malibu Moon dam suggest stamina for 10 furlongs.

Weaknesses

• Layoff: Over 2 months since last race (May 2, 2025), with no workouts since June 27.
• Limited 2025 Starts: Only 3 starts (1-1-0), with a 4th in the Alysheba (G2, 99 speed figure).
• Pace Fit: Stalker style allows him to sit off the pace and close late. Saratoga’s long stretch favors his late kick.
• Comment: Locked is the class of the field with the highest Prime Power and best speed figures. His proven ability at the graded level and strong connections make him the horse to beat, despite the layoff.

5. Bendoog (12/1, 118 lbs, Jose Lezcano, William Mott)

• Profile: P 2 (Presser). 6-year-old horse by Gun Runner. Prime Power: 138.1 (7th).

Strengths

• Recent Form: Won an OC100k at Belmont on May 4, 2025 (91 speed figure), and ran 2nd in two prior starts, including the American Pharoah (145k, 95 speed figure).
• Trainer: Mott is strong in graded stakes (22%) and with last-out winners (25%).
• Saratoga: Ran 2nd in the 2024 Suburban (G2, 99 speed figure), showing he handles the track.

Weaknesses

• Speed Figures: Top figure (99) is below the par (102). Recent figures (91-97) are modest.
• Layoff: Over 2 months since last race, with no standout workouts.
• Class Jump: Moves up from an optional claimer to a G2, a significant challenge.
• Jockey: Lezcano’s 5% meet win rate is a concern.
• Pace Fit: Presser style suits a mid-pack trip, but he’ll need to improve to match top contenders.
• Comment: Bendoog is consistent but lacks the speed figures to compete with the top tier. His 2024 Suburban performance suggests he can hit the board, but winning is a stretch.

6. Honor Marie (15/1, 120 lbs, Ben Curtis, D. Whitworth Beckman)

• Profile: S 0 (Stalker). 4-year-old colt by Honor Code. Prime Power: 132.7 (8th).

Strengths

• Recent Form: Won the Isaac Murphy Marathon (200k) at 1½ miles on April 30, 2025 (98 speed figure), showing stamina.
• Class: Competitive in graded stakes, with a 2nd in the 2024 Louisiana Derby (G2, 99 speed figure).

Weaknesses

• Speed Figures: Top figure (100) is below the par (102). Recent figures (79-98) are inconsistent.
• Trainer/Jockey: Beckman has a poor graded stakes record (3% wins), and Curtis has no wins at the meet (0/2).
• Layoff: Over 2 months since last race, with no standout workouts.
• Class Jump: Moves up from a listed stakes to a G2.
• Pace Fit: Stalker style suits a closing run, but he’ll need a fast pace to capitalize.
• Comment: Honor Marie’s marathon win shows he can handle distance, but his speed figures and weak connections make him a longshot.

7. Antiquarian (4/1, 122 lbs, John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher)

• Profile: E/P 6 (Early/Presser). 4-year-old colt by Preservationist. Prime Power: 144.1 (3rd).

Strengths

• Recent Form: Ran 2nd in the Blame (G3) on May 31, 2025 (102 speed figure), and won the Peter Pan (G3) on May 11, 2025 (102 speed figure).
• Workouts: Sharp 4f breeze on June 27 (0:47.4, 2/42 at Saratoga).
• Trainer/Jockey: Pletcher (20% in 2025) and Velazquez (31% meet win rate, 27% with Pletcher) are a top combination.
• Third Off Layoff: Pletcher excels in this spot (17% wins).

Weaknesses

• Saratoga: Only 1 start (5th in 2024 Belmont S., G1, 98 speed figure).
• Limited Graded Success: Only 2 graded starts in 2025, with no wins at this level.
• Pace Fit: E/P style suggests he’ll be on or near the lead with Phileas Fogg and Awesome Aaron. His recent form indicates he can sustain his speed.
• Comment: Antiquarian is improving and benefits from strong connections. His recent speed figures and pace versatility make him a serious contender.

8. Awesome Aaron (7/2, 124 lbs, Irad Ortiz Jr., Norm Casse)

• Profile: E/P 6 (Early/Presser). 6-year-old gelding by Practical Joke. Prime Power: 142.9 (4th).

Strengths

• Recent Form: Won the Pimlico Special (G3) on May 16, 2025 (105 speed figure, career best), defeating Phileas Fogg and San Siro.
• Speed Figures: Top figure (105) is among the highest and exceeds the par (102). Recent figures (93-105) are strong.
• Jockey/Trainer: Irad Ortiz Jr. (21% in 2025, 24% in routes) is one of the best, and Casse is hot (24% in 2025).
• Saratoga: Competitive in his lone start (88 speed figure).

Weaknesses

• Layoff: 49 days since last race, though mitigated by recent workouts.
• Inconsistent at Top Level: Mixed results in graded stakes (16% win rate).
• Pace Fit: Likely to set or press the pace, which suits Saratoga’s dirt. His front-running style could make him tough to catch.
• Comment: Awesome Aaron’s recent G3 win and high speed figures make him a top contender. His pace advantage and elite jockey give him a strong chance.

Pace Scenario

• Early Speed: Awesome Aaron (E/P 6), Phileas Fogg (E/P 6), and Antiquarian (E/P 6) are likely to vie for the lead or stalk closely. The E1/E2 pars (93/102) suggest a moderate pace, but with three E/P types, the early fractions could be faster than average.
• Mid-Pack: Disarm (P 2), Bendoog (P 2), and San Siro (P 4) will likely sit 3-5 lengths off the pace.
• Closers: Locked (S 0) and Honor Marie (S 0) will come from farther back, relying on a pace meltdown to make their move.
• Analysis: Saratoga’s dirt often favors horses on or near the lead, but the 1¼-mile distance and long stretch allow closers like Locked to make up ground if the pace is hot. The presence of three E/P types suggests a contested pace, which could benefit stalkers/closers.

Key Factors and Trends

• Speed Figures: Locked (106) and Awesome Aaron (105) have the highest recent figures, followed by Phileas Fogg (104) and Antiquarian (102). These four are the primary contenders based on speed.
• Class: Locked has the best graded stakes resume (G1 wins), followed by Disarm (G1-placed). Awesome Aaron and Antiquarian have G3 wins, while Phileas Fogg is lightly tested at this level.
• Jockey/Trainer: Pletcher (Locked, Antiquarian) and Ortiz brothers (Locked, Awesome Aaron) give these horses an edge. Carmouche (Phileas Fogg) is also in top form.
• Saratoga Form: Locked, Disarm, and Bendoog have run well at Saratoga, while Phileas Fogg has a win. San Siro and Antiquarian have limited or no success here.
• Layoffs: Four horses (Disarm, Locked, Bendoog, Honor Marie) have been off for over 2 months, which could impact sharpness. Phileas Fogg and Awesome Aaron (49 days) are fresher.
• Workouts: Phileas Fogg and Antiquarian have sharp recent breezes, boosting their chances.

Prediction

1. Locked (4): The class of the field with the highest Prime Power (149.5) and top speed figure (106). His G1 wins, strong Saratoga form, and elite connections (Pletcher/Ortiz) make him the horse to beat. His stalker style should capitalize on a contested pace, and the long Saratoga stretch favors his closing kick. The layoff is a concern, but his talent outweighs it.
2. Awesome Aaron (8): Coming off a career-best 105 in the Pimlico Special (G3), he’s in top form and benefits from Irad Ortiz Jr. His front-running style and pace advantage make him dangerous, especially if he shakes loose early. The 49-day layoff is less concerning than others.
3. Phileas Fogg (1): Consistent and versatile, with a hot jockey (Carmouche) and a recent 104 speed figure. His E/P style suits the race, and his Saratoga win is a plus. He’s a strong contender for the top three.
4. Antiquarian (7): Improving and well-prepared (sharp workout, Pletcher/Velazquez). His recent G3 performances (102 speed figures) and E/P style make him a threat, but he needs to step up against top-class foes.

Exotics Contenders:

• Disarm (2): Could hit the board if he regains his 2023 form, but the layoff and lower recent figures are concerns.
• Bendoog (5): Consistent and ran well in the 2024 Suburban, but his speed figures and class jump make him a longshot for the win.
• San Siro (3) and Honor Marie (6): Likely to struggle due to lower speed figures and weaker connections.

Suggested Wagers

• Win/Place: Locked (4) – Strongest overall contender with class and speed.
• Exacta Box: Locked (4), Awesome Aaron (8), Phileas Fogg (1) – Covers the top three contenders with versatile running styles.
• Trifecta Key: Locked (4) / Awesome Aaron (8), Phileas Fogg (1), Antiquarian (7) – Key Locked on top, with the next three strongest for second and third.
• Superfecta Key: Locked (4) / Awesome Aaron (8), Phileas Fogg (1), Antiquarian (7), Disarm (2) – Adds Disarm for fourth to cover a potential upset.
• Daily Double: Pair Locked (4) with a strong contender in Race 11 (if PPs are provided, I can suggest a specific horse).

Example Bet (based on $50 budget):

• $10 Win/Place on Locked (4) = $20
• $5 Exacta Box (4-8-1) = $15
• $1 Trifecta Key: 4 / 1,7,8 = $6
• $0.10 Superfecta Key: 4 / 1,2,7,8 = $2.40
• $6.60 reserved for Daily Double (adjust based on Race 11).

Celebrate the 4th of July with TheFreePPs.com using publicly available links to free past performances for G2 Suburban Handicap at Saratoga. See trainer Bill Mott’s entry of Bendoog.

Disclaimer: Gambling involves risk. Bet responsibly. Picks are based on free past performances handicapping, historical data, and our proprietary algorithm. TheFreePPs.com provides links to publicly available racing data and is not affiliated with linked sites. All wagering should be done responsibly. TheFreePPs.com is not responsible for losses incurred using this information.

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