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Home / Del Mar / Del Mar: 2025 Eddie Read Stakes (G2) Analysis, Picks, Free PPs

Del Mar: 2025 Eddie Read Stakes (G2) Analysis, Picks, Free PPs

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Race Overview

  • Distance: 1 1/8 miles (turf)
  • Purse: Grade 2 stakes, typically $250,000–$300,000
  • Track: Del Mar, firm turf expected
  • Field: 8 runners, ranging from proven Grade 1 performers to consistent graded stakes competitors
  • Key Handicapping Angles:
  • Favor horses with strong recent form in similar class levels (G1/G2).
  • Prioritize horses with tactical speed or closing ability suited to Del Mar’s turf course, which often rewards midpack or closing styles.
  • Consider trainer/jockey combinations with strong Del Mar records.
  • Evaluate pace dynamics to identify horses likely to benefit from the projected race shape.

Pace Scenario

Based on the Running Style and Early Pace Benchmarks:

  • Leaders/Trackers: Cabo Spirit (Early: 111, Leader) and Balladeer (Early: 88, Tracker) are likely to set or press the pace. Cabo Spirit’s high Early Pace Benchmark suggests he’ll vie for the lead, while Balladeer may stalk just off the pace.
  • Midpack: Formidable Man (Early: 94, Midpack) and Stay Hot (Early: 78, Midpack) can sit close to the pace, with flexibility to stalk or press if needed.
  • Closers/Plodders: Dicey Mo Chara (Early: 62, Closer), Balnikhov (Early: 39, Plodder), Atitlan (Early: 55, Plodder), and Gold Phoenix (Early: 37, Closer) will likely settle off the pace and rely on late rallies.
  • Analysis: Del Mar’s turf course often favors horses with tactical speed or strong closing kicks, as the short stretch can reward those who stay close early. With only two horses showing high Early Pace Benchmarks, the pace should be moderate, setting up well for midpack runners or closers with strong Late Pace Benchmarks.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Dicey Mo Chara (GB) (12-1, 121 lbs, Trainer: L. Powell, Jockey: J. Hernandez)

  • Composite Rating: Moderate (past performances suggest mid-tier competitiveness).
  • Recent Form: Consistent in graded stakes, with a strong third in the G2 Whittingham (5/3/25, Performance Rating: 116) and a fourth in the G3 San Marcos (2/8/25, Performance Rating: 116). Faded late in the G2 Hollywood Turf Cup (11/29/24, Performance Rating: 96).
  • Running Style: Closer (Early: 62, Late: 111). Benefits from a fast pace but may struggle if the race slows down.
  • Del Mar Record: 0-0-1-1, with a third in the 2024 G2 Del Mar Mile (Performance Rating: 120, lost to Balnikhov and Gold Phoenix).
  • Trainer/Jockey: Powell (20% win at Del Mar) and Hernandez (26% win overall) form a strong combination.
  • Pros: Proven at this distance; Hernandez’s tactical riding suits his closing style.
  • Cons: Longshot ML odds reflect inconsistent wins; needs a fast pace to close effectively.
  • Verdict: Contender for exotics if the pace is honest, but win seems unlikely.

2. Balnikhov (IRE) (10-1, 121 lbs, Trainer: P. D’Amato, Jockey: K. Kimura)

  • Composite Rating: Competitive (consistent in G2/G3, with occasional G1 efforts).
  • Recent Form: Second in the 2024 G2 Hollywood Turf Cup (Performance Rating: 121) and third in the 2024 G2 Del Mar Mile (Performance Rating: 120). Disappointed in the G3 Dinner Party (5/17/25, Performance Rating: 118).
  • Running Style: Plodder (Early: 39, Late: 126). Relies on a strong late kick, which suits Del Mar’s turf.
  • Del Mar Record: 0-0-1-2, with a third in the 2024 G2 Del Mar Mile.
  • Trainer/Jockey: D’Amato (14% win at Del Mar) is reliable on turf; Kimura (12% win overall) is less proven but capable.
  • Pros: High Late Pace Benchmark (126) suggests a big closing move; D’Amato’s turf expertise.
  • Cons: Rarely wins; needs a perfect setup to hit the board.
  • Verdict: Strong exotics candidate, especially in a race with moderate pace.

3. Atitlan (4-1, 123 lbs, Trainer: J. Shirreffs, Jockey: H. Berrios)

  • Composite Rating: High (proven in G2/G3, with G1 upside).
  • Recent Form: Won the G2 Whittingham (5/3/25, Performance Rating: 117) and G3 San Luis Rey (3/22/25, Performance Rating: 122). Fifth in the G1 Shoemaker Mile (5/26/25, Performance Rating: 120).
  • Running Style: Plodder (Early: 55, Late: 118). Sits off the pace and finishes strongly.
  • Del Mar Record: 0-0-1-2, with a third in the 2024 G2 Del Mar Derby (Performance Rating: 112).
  • Trainer/Jockey: Shirreffs (12% win at Del Mar) excels with turf routers; Berrios (20% win overall) is a rising star.
  • Pros: Two graded wins in 2025; loves 1 1/8 miles; Berrios fits well.
  • Cons: Inconsistent in G1 company; may need a faster pace to maximize his close.
  • Verdict: Top contender, especially with his proven class and closing ability.

4. Formidable Man (5-2, 125 lbs, Trainer: M. McCarthy, Jockey: U. Rispoli)

  • Composite Rating: Elite (G1 winner with strong Del Mar form).
  • Recent Form: Won the 2025 G1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile (3/1/25, Performance Rating: 121) and 2024 G1 Hollywood Derby (Performance Rating: 117). Fourth in the G1 Shoemaker Mile (5/26/25, Performance Rating: 120).
  • Running Style: Midpack (Early: 94, Late: 105). Tactical speed allows him to sit close and finish well.
  • Del Mar Record: 2-0-0-2, including wins in the 2024 G2 Del Mar Derby and a 2024 stakes race.
  • Trainer/Jockey: McCarthy (19% win at Del Mar) and Rispoli (20% win overall) are a hot combination (29% win together).
  • Pros: Loves Del Mar; versatile running style; G1 win proves class.
  • Cons: Top weight (125 lbs); ML favorite may offer low value.
  • Verdict: The horse to beat, with the best combination of form, speed, and course affinity.

5. Gold Phoenix (IRE) (3-1, 121 lbs, Trainer: P. D’Amato, Jockey: K. Frey)

  • Composite Rating: High (multiple graded stakes wins, G1-placed).
  • Recent Form: Won the 2024 G2 Del Mar Mile (Performance Rating: 121) and third in the 2025 G3 San Luis Rey (Performance Rating: 120). Fourth in the 2024 G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf (Performance Rating: 127).
  • Running Style: Closer (Early: 37, Late: 116). Needs a fast pace to unleash his late kick.
  • Del Mar Record: 1-0-0-2, with the 2024 G2 Del Mar Mile win.
  • Trainer/Jockey: D’Amato (14% win at Del Mar) is excellent; Frey (11% win overall) is less consistent.
  • Pros: Proven at Del Mar; high Late Pace Benchmark (116) suits the course.
  • Cons: Inconsistent in 2025; Frey’s lower win rate is a concern.
  • Verdict: Strong win candidate if the pace sets up for his closing style.

6. Stay Hot (6-1, 121 lbs, Trainer: P. Eurton, Jockey: A. Fresu)

  • Composite Rating: Competitive (consistent in G2/G3, with stakes wins).
  • Recent Form: Won a $250K stakes at Lone Star (6/28/25, Performance Rating: 122) and second in the 2024 G2 Del Mar Derby (Performance Rating: 113). Fourth in the 2024 G1 Hollywood Derby (Performance Rating: 116).
  • Running Style: Midpack (Early: 78, Late: 105). Can stalk or close, offering versatility.
  • Del Mar Record: 1-1-0-2, with a 2024 stakes win and second in the G2 Del Mar Derby.
  • Trainer/Jockey: Eurton (19% win at Del Mar) and Fresu (17% win overall) are solid.
  • Pros: Versatile; strong Del Mar form; recent stakes win shows sharpness.
  • Cons: Faces tougher competition here; may need a career-best effort.
  • Verdict: Live contender for the top three, with tactical speed and course affinity.

7. Cabo Spirit (5-1, 121 lbs, Trainer: G. Papaprodromou, Jockey: M. Smith)

  • Composite Rating: Moderate (G3 winner, but inconsistent in G1/G2).
  • Recent Form: Won the 2025 G3 American (4/20/25, Performance Rating: 121) and third in the 2025 G1 Shoemaker Mile (Performance Rating: 124). Sixth in the 2024 G2 San Gabriel (Performance Rating: 123).
  • Running Style: Leader (Early: 111, Late: 82). Sets the pace but can fade late.
  • Del Mar Record: 0-0-0-2, with no placings in graded stakes at Del Mar.
  • Trainer/Jockey: Papaprodromou (15% win at Del Mar) and Smith (14% win overall) are reliable.
  • Pros: Will set the pace; Smith’s experience could keep him competitive.
  • Cons: Low Late Pace Benchmark (82) suggests vulnerability in the stretch.
  • Verdict: Likely to fade but could hold for a minor placing if uncontested early.

8. Balladeer (20-1, 121 lbs, Trainer: G. Papaprodromou, Jockey: A. Cedillo)

  • Composite Rating: Low (G3 winner, but outclassed in G1/G2).
  • Recent Form: Third in the 2025 G3 San Juan Capistrano (6/15/25, Performance Rating: 111) but faded in the 2025 G2 Whittingham (Performance Rating: 116). Won the 2024 G2 Whittingham (5/4/24, Performance Rating: 116).
  • Running Style: Tracker (Early: 88, Late: 71). Stalks but lacks a strong finishing kick.
  • Del Mar Record: 0-0-0-1, with an eighth in the 2024 G2 Eddie Read (Performance Rating: 115).
  • Trainer/Jockey: Papaprodromou (15% win at Del Mar) is solid; Cedillo (9% win overall) is a weak link.
  • Pros: Can stalk the pace; occasional graded stakes success.
  • Cons: Low Late Pace Benchmark (71); poor Del Mar record; Cedillo’s low win rate.
  • Verdict: Longshot with little chance to hit the board.

Predictions

  1. Formidable Man (5-2): G1 winner with tactical speed and a strong Del Mar record. His versatility and McCarthy/Rispoli combination make him the horse to beat.
  2. Atitlan (4-1): G2/G3 wins in 2025 and a high Late Pace Benchmark (118) suit Del Mar’s turf. Shirreffs and Berrios add confidence.
  3. Gold Phoenix (3-1): Proven at Del Mar with a G2 win; his closing style (Late: 116) could capitalize on a moderate pace.
  4. Stay Hot (6-1): Versatile with a recent stakes win and solid Del Mar form. Could sneak into the trifecta.

Exotics Contenders:

  • Balnikhov (10-1): High Late Pace Benchmark (126) makes him a threat to close into the top four.
  • Dicey Mo Chara (12-1): Consistent in graded stakes; could hit the board with a fast pace.
  • Cabo Spirit (5-1): Pace-setter who could hold for a minor placing if uncontested.

Toss: Balladeer (20-1) lacks the class and finishing kick to compete here.

Wagering Strategy

Given the competitive field and moderate pace scenario, the following bets balance value and likelihood of success:

  • Win Bet: Formidable Man (5-2) ($10). His Del Mar success and G1 form make him the safest choice, though odds may be short.
  • Place Bet: Atitlan (4-1) ($10). Offers value with his proven class and closing ability.
  • Exacta Box: Formidable Man, Atitlan, Gold Phoenix ($2 each, $12 total). Covers the top three contenders with strong Del Mar form.
  • Trifecta Key: Formidable Man over Atitlan, Gold Phoenix, Stay Hot, Balnikhov ($1 for 1-2-3, $12 total). Includes live closers and versatile runners.
  • Longshot Show Bet: Dicey Mo Chara (12-1) ($5). Could sneak into third or fourth with a fast pace.

Total Investment: $39

Final Thoughts

The 2025 Eddie Read Stakes shapes up as a battle between Formidable Man’s tactical speed and Atitlan and Gold Phoenix’s closing kicks. A moderate pace favors horses with versatility or strong late runs, and Del Mar’s turf course rewards those with course experience. Formidable Man is the most reliable pick, but Atitlan offers value for bettors seeking an upset. Use exotics to capture Balnikhov or Dicey Mo Chara for deeper payouts.

Free DRF past performances for the Eddie Read Stakes

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