Stephen Foster 2016 Headlines Churchill Stakes Card

The Triple Crown series has been run with three different winners taking each of the races. And so, perhaps, begins another period where there isn’t a 3 YO horse who can stand the test of a grueling challenge to win three races in a five week period against the best in class.

I know we didn’t cover Creator’s win in the Belmont yet but we’ll have something to say about him at a later date.

Now what?

Well, it’s on to the Breeders’ Cup for many of the would be wearers of the crown, and there’s almost 6 months to prepare.

But before we start focusing on the ’16 Cup at Santa Anita let’s take a look at this weekend’s lineup of stakes races at Churchill Downs for their spring running of Downs After Dark.

There are five stakes on the card for Saturday, June 18, 2016 including the Matt Winn for 3 YO’s which features Gun Runner who’s most recent effort was a third place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Starting with the $500,000 G1 Stephen Foster Handicap for 3 YO’s and up going 1 1/8 miles on the dirt. It’s the 8th race on the card for the field of seven and will be led by the even money favorite Effinex who has one win in one try at Churchill when he won the G1 Clark Handicap last November at the distance.

Stephen Foster 2016 Odds & Analysis

Here’s a look at the field in post position order:

International Star (6 – 1) Winner of over $1 million. Only effort at CD was a 4th place finish in the ’14 running of the Kentucky Jockey Club as a 2 year old behind El Kabeir who shows up in here. Reeled off 3 wins in a row at Fair Grounds as a 3 year old including the G2 Louisiana Derby which put him on course for a shot at the “roses” but was injured. Disappointed as favorite at Zia in their derby last November. Did take first race back as 4 YO at Fair Grounds when he beat Eagle, another who’s in here tonight. May not be the same horse he was but toss the last one and he goes for hot trainer/jock combo just might be able to turn it all around in here at a nice price.
Bradester (5 – 1) Horse for the course with 2 wins, a second and 2 thirds in 7 career tries at CD. He’s a sprinter going long on the lead exiting a 1 mile win at Monmouth in his first and only start in ’16. Tried the distance twice with a second best effort in the G3 Iselin last year. He’ll be the pacesetter in here but distance is a concern and tonight’s race will be his second off a layoff.
Effinex (Even Money) Won the Clark last year at the distance beating the Baffert trainee Hoppertunity. Was third in the SA Handicap in March going an 1/8th longer. Came back to win the Oaklawn Handicap giving him his third win at 1 1/8 miles, and pushing him over the $2.5 million mark. Steady as they come but at even money exotics are the only way to go — if you like him.
Majestic Harbor (5 – 1) Shares second choice in the morning line with Bradester at 5 to 1 so the oddsmaker can’t clearly separate the rest of the field from the top pick so as to make a cold exotic ticket. But this guy has a record of 4-2-1 from 9 starts at Churchill including a win in the G2 Alysheba about 6 weeks ago and is sitting on a bullet move over the track going 5/8th’s nine days ago. He was fourth in the ’15 Foster chasing a slow pace and should be sitting right off the heels of Bradester to get first run to the finish line and will have to hold off Effinex.
El Kabeir (12 – 1) Won the ’14 Kentucky Jockey Club at 2 on the lead all the way so thinking they’ll try to have him on the lead with Bradester. Was 3rd in the G1 Wood at 3 behind Frosted who is a nice horse. Managed only 1 win last year at Laurel going 7/8th’s and appears to be several grades below the rest of these.
Are You Kidding Me (10-1) 26 lifetime races of which 12 were on the all-weather mainly at Woodbine, and 13 on the lawn. The other race was on the dirt somewhere before November ’14 and didn’t hit the board. Gets Leparoux for Attfield who curiously brings this horse in to CD to make only his second lifetime start on the dirt to face a tough runner in Effinex. With Leparoux it is possible that this could be a different horse than his past performances show. Hmm.
Eagle (6-1) Won the G3 Ben Ali two back when he beat Noble Bird who won this race last year. Noble Bird’s not in here but Majestic Harbor and International Star both are and this guy’s been beaten twice by both of them (placed 3rd on DQ over International Star in N.O. Handicap as favorite). Does show he likes the track but will have plenty to do down the lane.