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Home / Churchill Downs / Churchill Downs: $400,000 Golden Rod S. (G2) Picks and Plays

Churchill Downs: $400,000 Golden Rod S. (G2) Picks and Plays

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With morning-line favorite and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Explora scratched earlier in the week, the 71st running of the Golden Rod has blown wide open and taken on an extra layer of intrigue as a 65 % chance of rain threatens to turn the historic Louisville oval sloppy by the 5:54 p.m. post time.

A compact but talented field of twelve remains, led by the undefeated Maker/Rosario duo of Letmecounttheways (2-for-2, including a dazzling gate-to-wire score in the Alcibiades prep), Irad Ortiz Jr. and Brad Cox’s ultra-professional Life of Joy (already a stakes winner over this track and distance), and the speedy, unbeaten Baracca who figures to be the lone frontrunner under Axel Concepcion. In a race suddenly lacking a standout, pedigree, pace setup, and the impending weather will decide who earns the 10-4-3-2-1 Kentucky Oaks points and stamps herself the early winter-book queen of the 2026 Kentucky Oaks trail.

65% chance of rain by post (likely sloppy/good track) – Field of 12 (Explora scratched)

Final Ranked Scores (after all weights & adjustments)

  1. #5 Letmecounttheways – 91.2
  2. #6 Life of Joy – 89.5
  3. #1 Baracca – 86.7
  4. #11 Bella Ballerina – 82.4
  5. #9 Atropa – 80.3
  6. #13 The Grumpy Rabbit – 78.1
  7. #3 Just Singing – 76.2
  8. #4 Vita Mia – 71.5
  9. #2 Essential Coffee – 68.9
  10. #7 Raspberry – 66.3
  11. #10 Coco Connect – 62.1
  12. #8 Wonzee Weather – 59.4

Predicted Order of Finish

  1. #5 Letmecounttheways
  2. #6 Life of Joy
  3. #1 Baracca (lone speed wire threat)
  4. #11 Bella Ballerina (debut winner stretches out)
  5. #9 Atropa or #13 The Grumpy Rabbit

Wagering Strategy (Confidence = Medium-High)

  • Win/Place: 5 Letmecounttheways
  • Exacta Box (main): 5 – 6 – 1
  • Exacta Part-Wheel: 5 over 6,1,11,9,13
  • Trifecta Key-Box: 5 with 6,1,11 with 6,1,11,9,13 ($1 base = $30)
  • Trifecta Small Saver: 6 / 5 / 1,5,6,11,9 ($0.50 base = $10)
  • Superfecta play if budget allows: 5 / 6,1 / 6,1,11,9 / 6,1,11,9,13

Contingency

If rain holds off (35% dry odds), pace stays moderate—same top trio. If heavy slop develops, elevate Life of Joy to top spot (+2 wet bonus) and add Vita Mia to exotics (dirt/turf switch loves mud).