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Home / Belmont Stakes / Journalism vs. Algorithm: Belmont Stakes Upset?

Journalism vs. Algorithm: Belmont Stakes Upset?

Belmont Stakes 2025, Saturday, June 7 at Saratoga Race Course Canva

The Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, set for June 7, 2025, at Saratoga Race Course, is the final jewel of the Triple Crown, offering a $2 million purse over 1¼ miles on dirt. With a 60% chance of rain and a likely sloppy track, this race could produce a shocker at Saratoga, the “graveyard of favorites.” Our advanced handicapping algorithm, powered by free past performances data, has analyzed speed figures, form, class, pace, jockey/trainer stats, and wet track performance to deliver precise predictions. Can Journalism (8-5) hold off Sovereignty (2-1), or will Hill Road (10-1) upset on a sloppy track? Get our expert picks and value bets for the 2025 Belmont Stakes!

The Algorithm: How It Works

Our handicapping algorithm evaluates multiple factors to rank horses and uncover value:

  • Speed Figures: Average of recent speed figures for consistent performance.
  • Form: Recent finishes, weighted for recency and in-the-money results.
  • Class: Race level (e.g., Gr1, Gr2) with adjustments for competition strength.
  • Pace: Early and late pace figures to match the 1¼-mile distance.
  • Jockey/Trainer: Win percentages for reliability in high-stakes races.
  • Track Conditions: Adjustments for sloppy track performance and Saratoga experience.
  • Troubled Trips: Bonuses for horses with excuses (e.g., bumped starts, wide runs).

For the Belmont Stakes, we’ve emphasized late pace (key for routes) and wet track ability, given the forecast.

The Field: Key Contenders

The Belmont Stakes features eight talented 3-year-old colts, with Journalism as the morning-line favorite. Here’s how the algorithm ranks them:

  1. Journalism (8-5): Score 88.95. Preakness winner with strong speed (95-94-91), elite late pace (119), and wet track form (103 Beyer in Kentucky Derby). His resilience (overcoming trouble in Preakness) makes him the horse to beat, though off-track concerns linger.
  2. Hill Road (10-1): Score 85.55. Peter Pan winner with top late pace (120) and turf-to-mud potential (maiden win in Ireland). Blinkers and a strong finish in the Peter Pan make him a prime upset candidate.
  3. Sovereignty (2-1): Score 85.5. Kentucky Derby winner on a sloppy track (105 Beyer), with strong late pace (119). His Saratoga sprint (4th) is a slight concern, but he’s a safe contender.
  4. Baeza (4-1): Score 80.75. Third in the Kentucky Derby despite trouble (94 Beyer), with wet track form (103 Beyer) and tactical speed (97). Pedigree (brother to 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch) adds intrigue, though distance limits are noted.
  5. Rodriguez (6-1): Score 63.0. Wood Memorial winner with high early pace (113), but weaker competition and no wet track data lower his chances.
  6. Uncaged (30-1): Score 58.1. Perfect 2/2 on muddy tracks and a Saratoga maiden win, but a poor Peter Pan run tempers expectations. A longshot for exotics.
  7. Crudo (15-1): Score 56.0. Dominant recent wins (14¾ lengths combined), but low speed figures (84-87) and untested distance make him a risk.
  8. Heart of Honor (30-1): Score 51.6. Consistent but plagued by “seconditis” (four seconds in seven starts) and no wet track experience. Likely to fade.

Betting Strategy

Saratoga’s upset-prone nature and the sloppy track open the door for value bets. Here’s our plan:

  • Win Bet: Journalism (8-5). His form, late pace, and wet track performance make him the top choice, despite potential off-track weakness.
  • Place/Show Bet: Hill Road (10-1). High value with turf-to-mud ability and late pace, perfect for a sloppy-track upset.
  • Trifecta: Key Journalism and Sovereignty (1st/2nd) with Hill Road, Baeza, and Uncaged (2nd/3rd). Example: 7,2 / 7,2,1,6,4 / 7,2,1,6,4.
  • Exacta Box: Journalism, Sovereignty, Hill Road. Covers the top picks with upset potential.
  • Longshot Show: Uncaged (30-1). His muddy track wins and Saratoga experience make him a sneaky exotics play.

Why Trust Our Algorithm?

Our algorithm goes beyond picking favorites (which win only ~33% at Saratoga) by factoring in nuanced elements like troubled trips and track conditions. It highlights Hill Road and Baeza as value bets, leveraging their wet track potential and Saratoga experience to challenge Journalism and Sovereignty. Using handicapping notes, we’ve read between the lines to account for factors like Hill Road’s turf background and Uncaged’s muddy track prowess, aligning with expert handicapping principles.

Sources: Beyer Speed Figures data sourced from free Daily Racing Form Formulator PPs and referenced for context. This analysis was created using free past performances accessed from a public directory promoted by DRF and found on their website (www.drf.com). All rights reserved by the respective owners. Reuse of this data is expressly prohibited.

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