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Belmont Stakes 2018 Contenders, Odds, WizCapper’s Analysis and The Free PPs
The field for the 150th Belmont Stakes will be drawn on Tuesday, June 5, 2018. The list of contenders and their connections who intend to be there when they pull the numbers include Bandua (TBD), Blended Citizen (Kyle Frey), Bravazo (Luis Saez), Free Drop Billy (Robby Albarado), Gronkowski (Jose Ortiz), Hofburg (Irad Ortiz Jr.), Justify (Mike Smith), Noble Indy (Javier Castellano), Restoring Hope (Florent Geroux), Seahenge (Ryan Moore), Tenfold (Ricardo Santana Jr.) and Vino Rosso (John Velazquez).
That’s twelve horses, twelve circles, twelve betting interests, each with their eye on the prize of winning the third gem in the Triple Crown.
But only Justify has a chance to win the Belmont and the “imaginary” jewel necessary to complete the trio of races and earn the elusive “crown” of America’s thoroughbred racing world.
WizCapper’s Way to Play the 2018 Belmont Stakes
We’re still nearly a week away from the Belmont. And as we await the draw on Tuesday Justify continues to be the overwhelming choice of gamblers in Vegas. Which leads me to the reason why I included the video of Jim Gaffigan, another wannabe comedian, who “concludes” that horse racing is about nothing other than gambling. Imagine that.
WizCapper Breaks Down the Belmont
Don’t even think of starting to handicap the Belmont until you’ve checked the Belmont Stakes weather forecast for next Saturday in Elmont, NY.
If you’d prefer to pick winners without the off-track variables then you’re probably glad to here that there’s only a 20% chance of rain on Belmont Day.
But if you’re hoping that Justify can sweep the Triple Crown series, then you may not be so excited about the forecast because despite being the undefeated favorite his winning performances in three of the five races he’s won came on either a sloppy or muddy track. And as all good handicappers know, the slop carries speed home first more often than horses from off the pace.
With that, let’s take a look at the probable field for the Belmont in the official post position order which was drawn on Tuesday.
1. Justify (4-5) – Undefeated in all five so far. And if he wins the Belmont he’ll be only the second horse to have ever done so as an undefeated winner. Seattle Slew did it in 1977. He has been aided by an offtrack in three of his five wins and there’s a 70% chance of rain in Elmont, NY for the Belmont on Saturday. Sire Scat Daddy won his one and only start at Belmont in the 2006 Champagne going 1 mile. Sure, casual fans are pulling for him, but handicappers (i.e., gamblers) are not. And he’s no cinch. So if it comes up off he moves up but he won’t be alone on the front end. To date, he hasn’t shown that he can rate and he’ll have to go 1 1/2 miles with Noble Indy pressing him every step just like Good Magic did in the Preakness. On second thought, we know what happened to him. Justify’ably the one to beat.
2. Free Drop Billy (30-1) – The more shots they take, they more I realize this guy doesn’t have it at this level. He doesn’t have enough speed to stay close enough and enough power to make one run and is probably better suited at shorter distances where he can layoff the pace and make the one big move.
3. Bravazo (8-1) – Lukas is old school and runs them often. But to his credit he has not shied away from Justify. As I said before his runner-up performance in the Preakness was helped by the cutback on an off-track. I gotta believe he’s a tired horse and he won’t be able to press the pace nor be able to come from off of it in the longer distance of the Belmont.
4. Hofburg (9-2) – This guy is taking money in Vegas and is currently 6-1. Trained by master trainer Mott who’s looking for his first Belmont Stakes win, he’s been taken along slowly and will be making only his fifth lifetime start. Made waves when runner-up in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream two back to earn his highest Bris speed figure 104. Go back and watch the Kentucky Derby replay. His 7th place finish could be considered a toss out and the experience he gained was much needed. A couple of things stand out big time are the jockey/trainer stats and the two races where Irad Ortiz, Jr. was aboard — neither of which are favorable. And it’s hard to see how this guy improves much off the Derby placing given that five of the six who finished ahead of him on Derby Day are not overly impressive.
5. Restoring Hope (30-1) – With the exception of a third place finish two back in the Wood Memorial behind Vino Rosso, there doesn’t appear to be much to consider about his chances in here. His last start in the Pat Day Mile on Derby Day was a disaster when he dropped out of the race over the sloppy track that day, like he dropped out of school or something – he just stopped trying. But this is Baffert, and the Wood effort and the fact that Pletcher is sending Vino Rosso out here is the reason why he can’t be totally eliminated from exotic wagers.
6. Gronkowski (12-1) – Undefeated since switching to the all-weather in Great Britain four back. But has never raced beyond 1 mile. He’s a Kentucky bred with a ‘name’ that everyone knows so taking a chance in here is probably more a publicity stunt than anything else. Eclipse Award winning jockey Jose Ortiz has been named to ride so that’s not a bad thing. But you would think that regular Euro rider Jamie Spencer would have the option to travel and would exercise it, if this guy had a legitimate shot.
7. Tenfold (12-1) – Son of Curlin who lost this race in a duel with the first filly, Rags to Riches, to ever win the 2007 Belmont. Santana gave him a good ride in the Preakness last time when he was able to rate and close on Justify but was out finished by Bravazo for second. Belongs on tickets at a fair price.
8. Vino Rosso (8-1) – There’s a 70% chance of rain on Saturday in New York. He was better than half the field in the Derby finishing 9th so don’t think the rain will hurt his chances. Was sitting on a best of 75 bullet work a week before the Derby but didn’t get a chance to show his stuff from the 18 hole. Now he’s sitting on another bullet for this one and love his Wood victory two back with a good chance to take this one for top connections.
9. Noble Indy (30-1) – His last effort in the Kentucky Derby is a complete throw out as he had no shot from the 19 hole with his running style. Added blinkers two back to win the Louisiana Derby when showing tenacity to come back after giving up the lead in mid-stretch. Sitting on two bullets at Belmont in preparation for this over the past two weeks. Castellano will ride for Pletcher who also sends out Vino Rosso which is telling. But love those two local works and a sloppy track will help his chances to make the board.
10. Blended Citizen (15-1) – This is the horse I picked in our “Who will win the Belmont Stakes” poll. Ordinarily I would toss anything running at Turfway Park where they still race over a synthetic surface. And I understand it’s because winters in Henderson, Kentucky are nothing nice for man or beast. But the fact remains that a win at Turfway does not confirm the notion that “a win is a win” — until the horse wins a G3 at Belmont like this guy did in his last start. And as much as weather conditions are important when handicapping races, there’s no more important factor than “home field advantage”, “horse for the course”, or any of the other proverbial sayings that uttered when a horse has a win over the track. Sitting on a best of 35 bullet and he’s fresh.
