2018 Arkansas Derby Odds, Analysis + Free PPs

By WIZCAPPER
Updated: April 11, 2018

The 2018 Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs on Saturday, April 14 will be the final stop for a handful of Kentucky Derby hopefuls looking to cash in on the opportunity to grab the lion’s share of the $1 million dollars up for grabs to what will be a small but talented field of three-year-olds on the Derby Trail.

It will also be the final chance to earn some of the ‘prized’ points that most will need if they are to be led into the starting gate at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.

The $1 million Arkansas Derby to be run at 1 1/8 miles on dirt is the last of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series races that is worth 100 points to the winner. The probable field of eight includes three horses currently in the TOP 20 on the leaderboard, two in the TOP 30, one with just five points and two newcomers to the Derby trail hoping to spring the upset for a shot at the Kentucky Derby on May 5th.

Free Past Performances, official post positions, odds and WizCapper’s analysis will be available on Wednesday or Thursday when post positions are drawn.

The Probable Field for the 2018 Arkansas Derby

PP/Horse/Odds/(Leaderboard/Points)

1.) Beautiful Shot – 30-1 (0/0) – Sprinted to victory in first two career starts in California but caught Greyvitos in the G3 Bob Hope and reality set in. Had a shot to get some points in the Gotham but failed to fire behind Enticed, et. al. Trainer won two of three sent out at Oaklawn this meet but is dismal in graded stakes.

2.) Machismo – 20-1 (0/0) – Ran last weekend in the Blue Grass beating two horses home after a decent try two back in the FOY 2 back of Good Magic for third. If you toss his last race you can see why the trainer would think he belongs in here but hard to see how he would have any impact in here.

3.) Tenfold – 10-1 (0/0) – Tough to go two-turns in your maiden voyage and WIN but this guy won easily here in February and returned a month later to take an $75K OCN1X for Asmussen who has called on future Hall of Famer Espinoza to lead this son of Curlin over the Oaklawn oval. Sitting on a bullet but has to go a little longer this time around with a chance to impress in his third career start at a price.

4.) Dream Baby Dream – 15-1 (25/20) – Added blinkers to turn in best performance to date in the Sunland Derby last time out at long odds. Closed from way back to finish 3 behind Runaway Ghost who was the hometown favorite. What stands out most is his three show finishes at Oaklawn in as many tries. But that was before the addition of blinkers. Would have to take a big step up to win this.

5.) Solomini – 2-1 (19/34) – Maiden winner in his first start for Baffert last September at Del Mar going 6 1/2 on his way to back to back second place finishes behind Bolt d’Oro in the Front Runner at Santa Anita and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile won by Good Magic. Won the Los Alamitos Futurity but was DQ’d in a “witch hunt” that should have never happened. Started the year in second place behind Magnum Moon in the Rebel as the favorite and will have to face that one again in here.

6.) Magnum Moon – 8-5 (12/50) – Three starts, three wins for Pletcher trainee by Malibu Moon who was injured as a two-year-old and retired but went on to sire 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. After winning first two in South Florida, went on to past his first big test here in Hot Springs over several runners he’ll face again here. He should be close up from the start and the added distance is a plus.

7.) Plainsman – 30-1 (31/5) – Set the early fractions last time out in the race won by Tenfold before tiring to finish 3rd behind Navistar. Trainer is 0 for 6 in graded tries but when Asmussen calls on Espinoza to ride a newcomer to the Derby trail against some of the more obvious Derby contenders there must be consideration for the strength of the race this guy exits.

8.) Quip – 9-2 (14/50) – Winstar homebred won his first two for trainer Brisset who was the assistant to HOF trainer Bill Mott before breaking out on his own. Won his first outing at six furlongs by a head at Churchill before taking an allowance race next time out at Keeneland going two-turns easily. Tried the KYJC but got into trouble and finished seventh. Won the Tampa Bay Derby in an upset last time out under regular rider Geroux. Scratched from the Blue Grass Stakes last weekend to go here at long odds.

9.) Combatant – 6-1 (22/22) – 1 of 4 that Asmussen will send out hoping to make up several lengths on the one, two finishers last time out in the Rebel. Like Justify and Mendelssohn he’s the son of Scat Daddy but his running style is the opposite of his two brothers from another mother. Added distance can only help his cause as he doesn’t have much early zip.

Free Arkansas Derby Past Performances provided by DRF