Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes (G2) Saratoga
Update Finalized
July 25, 2026
FREE
Official Field Analysis: Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes (G2)
Post: 4:40 PM EDTDamon's Mound (140.2 OPI) stands out as the sole fully-qualified Real Winner. Hymn (142.3 OPI) and Built (142.3 OPI) lead on raw figures but fail track history requirements.
Sponsored Analysis
OPI Pedigree Deep-Dive
Hard Spun (Built) and Not This Time (Cat On Time) top the OPI Pedigree Index, while Girvin progeny (Damon's Mound) display maximum dirt sprint efficiency.
Top OPI Score
6
Hymn
OPI Score
142.3
Comp. Grade
A
Recent Speed
102
Value Audit
Our Expert Perspective uses a 50/30/20 weighting to separate true value from public hype.
OPI Confidence:
High
-
Pedigree Index20%
1
Damon's Mound
ML: 5/2
presser
FAIR VALUE
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Real Winner. Clears both Saratoga Track and 6F Distance hard filters (1 SAR win, 6 6F wins). Top recent speed figure (101) off the bench and draws ideal inside post.
2
Crazy Mason
ML: SCR
closer
Scratch.
3
Cat On Time
ML: 12/1
presser
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Paper Contender. Fails Saratoga track filter (0 starts at SAR). Recent figures lag behind top sprinters in this field.
4
Just Beat the Odds
ML: SCR
front-runner
Scratch.
5
Nutella Fella
ML: 8/1
closer
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Paper Contender. Clears Track & Distance filters via juvenile Hopeful-G1 win, but enters off a 7-month layoff with declining speed figures.
6
Hymn
ML: 3/1
presser
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Paper Contender. Shares top overall OPI (142.3) and posted a field-best 102 figure last out, but fails Saratoga Track filter on debut.
7
T Kraft
ML: 6/1
presser
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Paper Contender. Winless in 4 Saratoga starts (0-1-0). Distance-proven at 6F but lacks the top-end speed needed for victory.
8
Built
ML: 7/2
presser
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Paper Contender. Co-leads OPI field (142.3) and holds a 100% in-the-money record at 6F, but making Saratoga track debut.
WEATHER & TRACK ALERT: Forecast for Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes (G2) Post Time is CLOUDY & FAST.
OPI Recent Speed Figures (50% weight) are prioritized for today's Fast track conditions.
Track Intelligence Engine
Data Sync:
July 25, 2026 - 9:00 am EDT Projected Model: No Guarantee of Results
| Post | Horse | OPI Pedigree | Comp Grade | Recent Speed | OPI Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon's Mound 5/2 | 1.1 | A- | 101 | 140.2 |
| 2 | Crazy Mason SCR | 1.5 | B | 88 | 131.0 |
| 3 | Cat On Time 12/1 | 2.2 | B | 89 | 133.1 |
| 4 | Just Beat the Odds SCR | 1.6 | B+ | 93 | 136.5 |
| 5 | Nutella Fella 8/1 | 1.7 | B | 84 | 129.0 |
| 6 | Hymn 3/1 | 1.4 | A | 102 | 142.3 |
| 7 | T Kraft 6/1 | 1.2 | B | 90 | 137.9 |
| 8 | Built 7/2 | 2.2 | A | 97 | 142.3 |
OPI Watchlist: 2026 A.G. Vanderbilt
Damon's Mound
Style: presser
OPI Scout: Only prime contender clearing both SAR Track (1 win) and 6F Distance (6 wins) hard filters. Top figure (101) off the bench.
Hymn
Style: presser
OPI Scout: Co-leader in OPI (142.3) coming off career-best 102 figure. Must prove performance on Saratoga surface.
Built
Style: presser
OPI Scout: Consistent sprinter co-leading field with 142.3 OPI rating and highest Pedigree Index (2.24).
The "Hard Filter" Forecast
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Structure & Pace Analysis: With early speed scratch Just Beat the Odds out, Damon's Mound controls a major tactical edge from post 1. Hymn and Built bring huge OPI scores and high speed figures, but both must handle Saratoga for the first time. Damon's Mound is the clear primary choice under hard filter logic.
Refresh Analysis →OPI Strategic Framework
The Efficiency Play
Focus on the Top OPI Qualifier and the Heavyweight in a vertical structure.
Positive Regression
Build value spreads around high-indexing components while explicitly fading the Public Trap.