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Santa Anita Derby (G1) Santa Anita Park

Distance: 1 1/8 Miles A Par OPI: 103
Update Finalized
May 16, 2026

Official Field Analysis: Santa Anita Derby (G1)

Post: 4:30 PM PT

The Santa Anita Derby dynamic centers on the tactical battle between the Baffert duo and the high-OPI So Happy. The FPPS model identifies Potente as the horse to beat; his Lifetime Track filter is flawless. We are closely monitoring Intrepido returning from a 56-day layoff; historically, Mullins is high-percentage with fresh runners, and his 91.4 OPI earns him "Real Winner" status. While Robusta (91.7 OPI) brings speed from his San Felipe runner-up finish, he must satisfy our 9-furlong efficiency filter to prove he isn't just a middle-distance "Paper Contender" at the Grade I level.

Sponsored Analysis
High-Value OPI Intelligence:

The West Coast's premier 9-furlong test for three-year-olds. Our OPI Pedigree Index separates the elite Into Mischief and Not This Time progeny from the middle-distance specialists.

Review the full Pro Betting Sheet analysis below for final Hard Filter results.

OPI Pedigree Deep-Dive

The 1 1/8-mile distance at Santa Anita is a classic stamina test. Our OPI Pedigree Index identifies Potente (9.2 Index) and Cherokee Nation (8.8 Index) as the stamina aristocrats of the field. Conversely, speed-oriented types like So Happy (8.5 Index) must prove they can sustain their Recent Speed Figures (101) past the 8.5-furlong "stamina ceiling" inherent in the Runhappy bloodline.

Top OPI Score
5 So Happy
OPI Score 97.5
Comp. Grade A+
Recent Speed 101
Lifetime Track & Distance Filter Result
Lifetime Track and Distance efficiency (SA + 9f) applied.

Value Audit

Our Expert Perspective uses a 50/30/20 weighting to separate true value from public hype.

OPI Confidence: High
  • Pedigree Index20%
Analysis calibrated for: Fair Surface
1
Cherokee Nation
ML: 5/2
stalker
UNDERLAY
2
Potente
ML: 2/1
stalker
UNDERLAY
3
Vitruvian Man
ML: 20/1
closer
RISKY OVERLAY
4
Robusta
ML: 8/1
stalker
ELITE OVERLAY
5
So Happy
ML: 9/5
speed
UNDERLAY
6
Start the Ride
ML: 15/1
presser
RISKY OVERLAY
7
Intrepido
ML: 4/1
stalker
FAIR VALUE
WEATHER & TRACK ALERT: Forecast for Preakness Stakes Weekend is SUNNY & FAST. OPI Recent Speed Figures (50% weight) are prioritized for today's Fast track conditions.
Track Intelligence Engine
Data Sync: Projected Model: No Guarantee of Results
Post Horse OPI Pedigree Comp Grade Recent Speed OPI Score Status
1 Cherokee Nation 5/2 8.8 A- 103 96.7 REAL WINNER
2 Potente 2/1 9.2 A 97 95.4 REAL WINNER
3 Vitruvian Man 20/1 6.2 C+ 76 73.8 PAPER
4 Robusta 8/1 7.8 A- 97 91.7 REAL WINNER
5 So Happy 9/5 8.5 A+ 101 97.5 REAL WINNER
6 Start the Ride 15/1 7.4 B 88 84.3 PAPER
7 Intrepido 4/1 8.2 A 93 91.4 REAL WINNER

OPI Watchlist: 2026 Santa Anita Derby

So Happy (#5)

Style: Speed

A+
OPI Scout: Field-high OPI Score (97.5). Must prove 9-furlong stamina after yielding late in the San Felipe at 1 1/16 miles.
Cherokee Nation (#1)

Style: Stalker

A-
OPI Scout: OPI Surge (96.7) following field-high Recent Speed Figure (103). Baffert trainee moving from Mdn win to Grade I; massive ceiling.
Potente (#2)

Style: Stalker

A
OPI Scout: Consistent "Real Winner" (95.4 OPI). Sharp 5F bullet workout (59.1) on Mar-26 suggests a peak performance is imminent.
The "Hard Filter" Forecast

Hard Filter Alert: Vitruvian Man and Start the Ride designated as "Paper Contenders" due to Recent Speed Figures falling significantly below the Grade I par. So Happy, Cherokee Nation, Potente, Robusta, and Intrepido all cleared our 90.0 OPI elite threshold.

Refresh Analysis →

OPI Strategic Framework

The Efficiency Play

Focus on the Top OPI Qualifier and the Heavyweight in a vertical structure.

Positive Regression

Build around the "Real Winner" filter horses while explicitly fading the Public Trap.

Kelly Criterion: Value Calculator

Select a contender from your Pro Betting Sheet to see the recommended unit stake.

Recommended Stake $0.00

Strategy: Quarter-Kelly

Risk-adjusted for long-term growth.

Disclaimer: The Overall Performance Index (OPI) and Pro Betting Sheet data are for educational purposes. All wagering responsibilities rest with the user. 1-800-GAMBLER.

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