Haskell Stakes (G1) Monmouth Park
Update Finalized
July 16, 2026
2026 Indiana Derby Recap: Brad Cox's unexposed sensation Leading Change (5/1) validates his field-high 3.15 Pedigree Index, leaping from a maiden sprint to capture the G3 classic.
2026 Indiana Derby Recap: Matt Winn runner-up Our Moneyman (4/1) sustains his elite multi-pillar consistency, closing furiously down the lane to miss by just a neck.
2026 Victory Ride Recap: Longshot Sippin Pretty pulls off a massive 26-1 upset at the Spa under Ricardo Santana Jr., wearing down heavy favorite Goodall in deep stretch.
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Official Field Analysis: Haskell Stakes (G1)
Post: 5:45 PM EDTThe 2026 Haskell is structured as a heavyweight match. Napoleon Solo holds the keys to the race on the front end under Paco Lopez. Stalkers Further Ado and Iron Honor present the highest speed indexes and must be used as primary win targets. Local prep winner Baby Vino adds exotic value, while Ocelli is best relegated to the bottom of vertical structures due to pacing limitations.
Sponsored Analysis
OPI Pedigree Deep-Dive
Monmouth's dirt track historically favors forward momentum, placing a high premium on tactical early speed. Our adjusted OPI Pedigree Index highlights Further Ado (3.20 pedigree rating) and Preakness runner-up Iron Honor (3.10 rating) as flawless physical fits for the 9-furlong distance. When matched against deep closer Ocelli, the stalking advantages become clear.
Top OPI Score
2
Further Ado
OPI Score
134.8
Comp. Grade
A
Recent Speed
97
Lifetime Track & Distance Filter Result
Grade 1 Fast Track Pace & Class Configuration Active. Hard class filters applied to separate proven elite-level closing speed from regional pretenders.
Value Audit
Our Expert Perspective uses a 50/30/20 weighting to separate true value from public hype.
OPI Confidence:
High
-
Pedigree Index20%
1
Star Sweeper
ML: 30/1
stalker
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Validated omission. Fails our hard T&D and class filters. Finished a distant last behind local competitor Baby Vino in the Pegasus Stakes. Strictly a minor regional filler completely outclassed in this Grade 1 spot.
2
Further Ado
ML: 2/1
stalker
UNDERLAY
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Maintained as a premium Real Winner. Excludes his Derby trip to reveal 5 straight high-quality efforts. Captured the G3 Matt Winn with a stellar 97 Recent Speed Figure and fired a bullet workout at CD on July 4. Highly tactical.
3
Baby Vino
ML: 15/1
stalker
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Premium Paper Contender. The only runner in this field with a win over the Monmouth surface, romping by 10 3/4 lengths in the Pegasus prep. Still needs a step forward to match the top-flight G1 speed elements.
4
The Puma
ML: 7/2
closer
FAIR VALUE
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Premium Paper Contender. Possesses massive class, having won the G3 Tampa Bay Derby over Further Ado and running second in the Florida Derby. However, returning from a physical skin infection layoff caps his immediate win upside.
5
Iron Honor
ML: 3/1
stalker
FAIR VALUE
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Maintained as a premium Real Winner. Put up a tremendous fight to finish a close 2nd in the G1 Preakness after dropping blinkers. Retains Florent Geroux and possesses the perfect tactical style to sit just off the pace.
6
Napoleon Solo
ML: 5/2
front-runner
FAIR VALUE
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Maintained as a premium Real Winner. The defining pace of the race and reigning G1 Preakness Stakes champion. Reunited with Paco Lopez, who dominates Monmouth Park. Must be caught to be beaten.
7
Ocelli
ML: 6/1
closer
HANDICAPPER OVERRIDE: Premium Paper Contender. Perhaps the most accomplished maiden-breaker class-wise in training, finishing second in the G3 Ohio Derby. However, his deep-closing style is severely compromised by a moderate pace forecast.
WEATHER & TRACK ALERT: Forecast for Matt Winn Stakes Post Time is CLOUDY & FAST.
OPI Recent Speed Figures (50% weight) are prioritized for today's Fast track conditions.
Track Intelligence Engine
Data Sync:
July 16, 2026 - 11:30 am EDT Projected Model: No Guarantee of Results
| Post | Horse | OPI Pedigree | Comp Grade | Recent Speed | OPI Score | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Star Sweeper 30/1 | 1.2 | C | 83 | 89.2 | PAPER |
| 2 | Further Ado 2/1 | 3.2 | A | 97 | 134.8 | REAL WINNER |
| 3 | Baby Vino 15/1 | 1.9 | B | 87 | 115.4 | PAPER |
| 4 | The Puma 7/2 | 2.9 | A- | 94 | 126.9 | PAPER |
| 5 | Iron Honor 3/1 | 3.1 | A | 94 | 131.5 | REAL WINNER |
| 6 | Napoleon Solo 5/2 | 2.4 | A | 96 | 133.2 | REAL WINNER |
| 7 | Ocelli 6/1 | 2.2 | B+ | 94 | 118.6 | PAPER |
OPI Watchlist: 2026 Haskell Stakes
Napoleon Solo (5/2)
Style: front-runner
OPI Scout: Preakness Stakes winner holds a defining speed advantage. Paco Lopez is incredibly lethal on the front end at Monmouth.
Further Ado (2/1)
Style: stalker
OPI Scout: Superbly consistent Brad Cox trainee returns off a sharp Matt Winn win and bullet training works at Churchill Downs.
Iron Honor (3/1)
Style: stalker
OPI Scout: Florent Geroux retains the mount on this talented Preakness runner-up, who is training beautifully with blinkers off.
The "Hard Filter" Forecast
Haskell Pace & Structure Analysis: The pace maps to be controlled from the outset by Preakness winner Napoleon Solo, who inherits the rail-adjacent speed role. With Star Sweeper unable to apply high-level pressure, Napoleon Solo should get brave on the lead. This tempo creates a distinct tactical advantage for close-tracking stalkers Further Ado and Iron Honor. Deeper closers like Ohio Derby runner-up Ocelli and the returning The Puma are structurally downgraded due to the anticipated moderate early fractions, making this G1 dynamic heavily biased toward the top-tier speed elements.
Refresh Analysis →OPI Strategic Framework
The Efficiency Play
Focus on the Top OPI Qualifier and the Heavyweight in a vertical structure.
Positive Regression
Build around the "Real Winner" filter horses while explicitly fading the Public Trap.
Kelly Criterion: Value Calculator
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