Jim Dandy: Mohaymen Returns as Favorite
So, I went back and watched the replay of the Kentucky Derby, paying particular attention to Mohaymen’s fourth place finish, while trying to understand why the oddsmaker has made him the favorite for the 2016 running of the G2 $600,000 Jim Dandy at Saratoga.
Grant it, it’s only a slight difference between his 9-5 price and the 2-1 that Belmont runner-up Destin will open, but handicapping is all about reading between the lines to make a case for why one horse can’t win and how another horse can.
Mohaymen “Dominant” Early On
In case you didn’t know, Mohaymen means “dominant” in Arabic. And through the first five races of his young career, Mohaymen was just that, breaking his maiden at first asking followed by four G2 wins including the Fountain of Youth which propelled him to the top of the list of Derby contenders as the early favorite before being soundly defeated in the Florida Derby as the heavy favorite by Nyquist who went on to win in Louisville.
Watch the 2016 Kentucky Derby replay
If you go back and watch the Derby replay you’ll see that Mohaymen had rallied into contention turning for home but when Exaggerator blew by him at the top of the stretch on his way to second, it made Mohaymen’s rally look weak. And even more so as he couldn’t catch the tiring Gun Runner for third and barely held off the late closing Suddenbreakingnews for fourth.
In the five races he’s won to date, he’s beaten Flexibility twice and Fellowship twice, neither of which are much of anything.
The one thing that does stand out for Mohaymen is the fact that trainer McLaughlin is killing it at the meet with 7 of 10 winners during opening week, and has a $6.66 (yes 666) ROI when teaming with Alvarado.
It’s only a 6 horse field for the 1 1/8 miles Jim Dandy and I think it’s safe to say that you can eliminate Laoban, the likely pacesetter who is still a maiden who will run for the eccentric Cajun trainer Eric Guillot (known to hang voodoo dolls around the barn before a big race), and Race Me Home with only a maiden victory to his credit.
That leaves a field of 4, two of which finished behind Mohaymen in the Derby before a one, two finish in the Belmont.
In the Derby, Destin finished sixth beaten 2 3/4 lengths by Mohaymen and 11 lengths in front of Creator who was 13th.
In the Belmont, Destin stalked the leader in second through the first 1 3/8 miles and looked every bit the winner at the 1/8 pole before being nipped at the wire by the late closing Creator.
They’ll be cutting back 3/8 miles in the Jim Dandy and I expect Destin to set the real pace in second for Pletcher who has won this race 6 times dating back to 2000 with Graeme Hall and in 2013 with Palace Malice.
Governor Malibu at 9-2 is the fourth horse with a shot. He was a troubled 4th in the Belmont and likes the distance. He’ll be closer than creator and expect him to get the first jump on Destin for the win.
Free DRF.com Formulator past performances for the Jim Dandy
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