
Kentucky Jockey Club Odds, Analysis, Wiz Capper’s Pick
- Updated: November 27, 2021

Racetrack: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.
Date: Nov. 27
Purse: $400,000
Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Race: 11
Post Time: 5:56 p.m. ET
Notable winners: Super Saver (2009), Gemologist (2011), Private Vow (2005)
First held: 1920
The field for the 2021 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2)
#1 Classic Causeway (7-2) will have a chance to amend for his third place showing when favorite last time out in the G1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland.
Between the lines:
1. Easy winner in debut at Saratoga at a price
2. Broke fast from 13 post in last outing and tired
3. Working good for return off a near two month layoff
4. Will be the pace setter
5. Opens at 15-1 as a individual betting interest in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 1
#2 Guntown (15-1) lacks speed so he’ll need to make up plenty ground in a race without much pace. Will wear blinkers for the first time, which should help him stay closer.
Between the lines:
1. Equipment changes often yield good results
2. 0 for 2 at Churchill
3. 0 for 2 at distance
4. Broke maiden at Ellis
5. Good connections at a price
#3 Rich Strike (50-1) was claimed for $30K from a second out, 17 length victory going 1 mile here. Son of Keen Ice who defeated Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the 2015 Travers at Saratoga.
Between the lines:
1. 1 for 1 at Churchill
2. Added distance could help
3. Troubled trip in last
4. Stepping up in class
#4 Texas Red Hot (12-1) took a 1 mile OCN1X here in last outing to give him two lifetime from 4 starts but gets new rider for this one.
Between the lines:
1. High percentage trainer
2. New distance
3. 1 for 2 at Churchill
4. New rider
#5 Howling Time (7-2) will open as second choice off back-to-back wins and undefeated for winning connections.
Between the lines:
1. 2 for 2 at Churchill
2. Has a win at the distance
3. Closed into slow early fractions to draw off
4. Good post position
5. Opens at 20-1 as a individual betting interest in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 1
#6 Tiz the Bomb (3-1) was runner up in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile turf behind Euro runner Modern Games but switches back to dirt for this.
Between the lines:
1. 3 for 5 on turf
2. Turf to dirt angle often successful
3. Broke maiden by 14 in an off-the-turf race at Ellis in second start
4. 0 for 1 at Churchill
5. Opens at 20-1 as a individual betting interest in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 1
#7 Vivar (12-1) loses regular rider to the rail horse after back-to-back wins for Breeders’ Cup Classic winning trainer.
Between the lines:
1. Broke maiden on turf two back
2. Won an off the turf event last time out at Keeneland
3. Has a win at the distance
4. Steps up in class
#8 Smile Happy (12-1) was an easy winner in his maiden outing last time at Keeneland but loses rider to the favorite.
Between the lines:
1. Makes second career start against multiple winners
2. Jockey is 0 for 10 for trainer over last 60 days
3. Has a win at the distance
4. Opens at 50-1 as a individual betting interest in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 1
#9 Red Knobs (15-1) exits the Street Sense and will face the winner of that one who was best by 7 lengths.
Between the lines:
1. 0 for 2 at Churchill
2. 0 for 2 at the distance
3. No speed
#10 White Abarrio (8-1) will ship in from Gulfstream with two wins from as many starts for trainer who is 0 for 5 at Churchill.
Between the lines:
1. Undefeated from two starts
2. Will be sent from the start
3. Last out winning rider travels with him for this
4. Beat only 4 others in last race
#11 Ready Pursuit (50-1) will be overmatched from the start for trainer who is 0 for 5 with horses entered at Churchill.
Between the lines:
1. Claimed for $50K from his maiden voyage winning effort
2. Stepping up in class
3. Last out rider lands elsewhere
#12 Ben Diesel (15-1) won on debut here at this distance and will be making his first start against winners.
Between the lines:
1. Opens at 30-1 as a individual betting interest in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 1
2. 1 for 1 at Churchill
3. 2nd career start and 1st against winners
#13 Mannix (20-1) started career in third place in each of three starts before shipping to North America to take his first stateside outing over the new Tapeta surface at Gulfstream.
Between the lines:
1. Trainer is 0 for 20 at Churchill this meet
2. Breaks from a wide post for first trip on dirt
3. Adds distance
#14 Call Me Midnight (15-1) broke maiden last time out in fifth try for low percentage trainer
Between the lines:
1. Poor post position
2. Should appreciate added distance
3. Jockey is 33% (3 for 9) in last week
Wiz Capper’s Pick: #8 Smile Happy