2026 Withers Stakes: A Deep Dive into the Road to the Kentucky Derby

Weather permitting, a winter tradition will continue this Saturday, January 31, as Aqueduct Racetrack hosts the Withers Stakes, a critical nine-furlong test for three-year-olds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. With a $200,000 purse and 20-10-6-4-2 qualifying points on the line for the top five finishers, the race serves as the second major New York prep of the season following the Jerome Stakes.

Withers Stakes Contenders

• Schoolyardsuperman: Trained by Chad Brown, this colt enters with significant momentum following a dominant 5 ¾-length maiden victory on the Cigar Mile undercard in December.
• Ottinho: Also from the Brown barn, this son of Quality Road boasts one of the most prestigious pedigrees in the sport as a half-brother to Horse of the Year Gun Runner. He recently broke his maiden at the Withers distance of 1 1/8 miles on December 31.
• Fourth and One: Speed numbers going in the wrong direction but this Jeremiah Englehart trainee raced without blinkers for the first time and impressed with a 7 ¼-length romp against New York-breds last time out. Equipment changes are a huge handicapping angle and his connections have expressed high confidence in his ability to handle the step up to open stakes company.
• Grittiness: Todd Pletcher will send out this maiden runner looking to improve upon a fifth-place finish in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes and currently sits on the Derby leaderboard with one point. Comments in his past performances running lines note troubled starts in two of the three races before the addition of blinkers and his 5th place finish in the Remsen.
• Project Ace: A Florida shipper for Dale Romans. While his Recent Speed Figures are a bit lower than the locals, his breeding suggests he will relish the 1 1/8 mile distance.
• Grittiness: Coming out of a 5th place finish in the Grade 2 Remsen. His Competitive Grade (116.0) is the second-best in the field, making him a major threat if he finds his early-season form.
• Star Sweeper: A Parx-based runner coming off a nice optional-claiming win. He may find the Competitive Grade of this field a bit steep, but his front-running style could impact the pace of the race.

Performance Data & Field Rankings

The post positions for the 2026 Withers Stakes are set for this Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile test at Aqueduct.

The Standout (on Paper)

#5 Mailata has won three in a row by a combined 25 lengths. The pure numbers analysis points toward Mailata as the definitive class of the field. His Composite Strength Index—which weighs speed, pace, and pedigree—sits at 137.2, creating a massive gap of nearly ten points over his closest rivals. The transition from sprinting to a 1 1/8-mile route is the primary question mark, but his Competitive Grade (117.5)—a measure of his overall class as compared to the rest of the field—suggests he has faced and defeated much higher-quality opposition than he encounters today.

Distance Specialist

#6 Ottinho If the favorite falters at the distance, Ottinho is the logical beneficiary. He leads the field in Distance Suitability, being the only runner with a winning effort already on his resume at nine furlongs. His steady upward trajectory in Recent Form Ratings (climbing from 78 to 87) signals a horse reaching his peak exactly when the Derby trail heats up.

The Value Play

#7 Grittiness Don’t be fooled by the lack of a “1” in his win column. Grittiness drops significantly in class after finishing a respectable 5th in the Grade 2 Remsen with the addition of blinkers. The past performances notes an equipment change of “blinkers off” for the Withers and Pletcher is 21% with horses removing blinkers, which occurs today. His 116.0 Class Rating is second only to Mailata.

Wagering Strategies & Expert Predictions

• Win/Place: #5 Mailata. The numbers are too overwhelming to ignore. If his odds are 2-1 or better, he is a primary play.
• Exacta Box: 5 / 6 / 2. Pairing the power of Mailata with the distance proficiency of Ottinho and the early speed of Fourth and One.
• Trifecta Key: 5 with 1, 2, 6, 7 with 1, 2, 6, 7. This covers the “Chad Brown factor” with Schoolyardsuperman and the class drop of Grittiness.

Click here to access racing data for the Withers Stakes. See the free past performances for Todd Pletcher or Dale Romans.

Weather Outlook: Queens, New York

The forecast for Saturday at Aqueduct suggests a cold afternoon that could lead to a fast but “tiring” track surface.

Recent winter storms in the Queens area have already dropped nearly a foot of snow this week, and while only a slight 10% chance of snow is forecast for Saturday morning, the overnight low of 8°F and lingering snow showers into Saturday night could impact track moisture and surface consistency.

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