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Santa Anita: 2017 Malibu Stakes, Pavel’s to lose
Call me crazy, but doesn’t the 2017 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita’s seems like the right spot for Pavel to notch the third win of his young career.
The G1 Malibu for 3-year-olds and up going 7 furlongs for a purse of $300,000, will go as race number eight on the opening day card.
Live racing returns to Santa Anita with an eye on improving the quality of the racing product that has seen a steady decline over the past decade.
Malibu Stakes field, odds, analysis
1. City of Light – 8 to 1. Had a three length lead turning for home in last at Del Mar as odds on choice but failed to get the final furlong. Sitting on two bullets for this one and should set all the pace.
2. Edwards Going Left – 8 to 1. Cal bred is a six-time winner (twice at the distance). Only G1 try was a last place finish vs. Breeders’ Cup Sprint champ Roy H. Has beaten open company on several occasions and is a major contender despite seemingly lower class on paper.
3. Irish Freedom – 5 to 1. Two-time winner for Baffert broke maiden at first asking going 6 at Del Mar in summer of ’16. Has shown steady improvement since respectable 8th place finish in G1 Santa Anita Derby in April. Faced Hoppertunity and Prime Attraction in last two (both will go in the San Antonio) and cuts back with shot in here.
4. Favorable Outcome – 3 to 1. He’ll open as favorite for Brown off a field-high last race Beyer 104 vs. OCN2X at Aqueduct last month. Came west for ’16 BC Juvenile Turf to beat two horses. Has a G2 win at the distance in the Swale. A 104 Beyer at Aqueduct is not the same as at Belmont or Santa Anita. Underlay.
5. The Street Fighter – 30 to 1. Trainer won this race in ’09. Aside from that, can’t see how this Cal bred facing open company for the first time will be able to run better than his sure to be longshot odds at post time. Only win was maiden voyage score here going 6 earlier this year. Working steady but so is everyone else.
6. Pavel – 4 to 1. Broke his maiden here going 6 1/2 at first asking in July. Got beat a head for third behind 2017 Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming in the G2 Jim Dandy. Then earned a co-high Beyer 104 in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup before an unappealing 10th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last time out. Horse to beat.
7. Heartwood – 15 to 1. On a two-race win streak, but has never faced anything like this group and is making his first start on the west coast.
8. Dabster – 6 to 1. 3 starts. 3 wins. But only two count as he was DQ’d in the 7F maiden voyage victory here a year ago. Trained by Baffert for one of the sheikhs, he returned to start the new year a winner at 1 mile in a MSW here. Won last start at Del Mar going 7/8’s in an OCNW1X. Improving numbers in each race, but this guy is taking a big step up.
9. C Z Rocket – 7 to 2. Another with 3 wins in as many tries. Son of City Zip comes west for trainer Al Stall who doesn’t ship many outside of the Louisiana and Kentucky circuits. Regular rider Lezcano travels with this guy.
