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Home / News / Southwest Stakes 2017: Odds, Analysis, Forecast

Southwest Stakes 2017: Odds, Analysis, Forecast

President’s Day racing at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs is shaping up to be just like it was the last time Uncontested was sent out by trainer Wayne Catalano…sloppy.

There’s an 80% chance of rain in the forecast for Monday. But the sloppy track condition had little effect on Uncontested as he easily took the 1 mile Smarty Jones over several of the same runners he’ll face in the 2017 running of the Southwest Stakes.

The G3 $500,000 Southwest Stakes at 1 1/16 miles is one of two Road to the Kentucky Derby races on the President’s Day weekend of racing in America as the top 3 year-olds in the country seek to earn points on the leader board towards a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 6, 2017.

Wiz Capper’s Oaklawn Park Picks for the Southwest Stakes

Here’s Wiz Capper’s analysis of the field by post position:

  1. Cool Arrow – Three wins from his last 4 starts facing lesser at Laurel and Remington. Second at Churchill two back vs. Warrior’s Club. Slop should be okay, but pace and distance are a concern.
  2. Silver Dust – Son of Tapit will be making his third start of young career off maiden score last time out at Churchill. Sitting on a couple of 5f bullet moves here last month. But it’s tough to win next time out and he’s been away from competition for nearly three months. Interesting nonetheless.
  3. Uncontested – Case in point. The inevitable favorite broke his maiden at first asking last October at Keeneland, then returned a month later in the KyJC at Churchill to finish 4th behind McCracken. But last time out in the Smarty Jones he dominated the field as the favorite earning a co-high BRIS speed figure 97 in the field.
  4. Lookin at Lee – Son of 2010 Rebel winner Lookin At Lucky has two wins from 6 starts so far but both have come at Ellis last summer. But if there’s any shining light he’s trained by future HOF trainer Steve Asmussen who has thought enough of this guy to send him out against G1 company in his last two starts.  Second in the G1 Breeders Futurity two back, and fourth last time out in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he’s drawn the 4 hole for the Southwest after starting from the 12 and 11 posts respectively in his last two.
  5. Rowdy the Warrior – Oklahoma bred runner broke maiden at Remington last September vs. open company. Was third beaten 10 lengths in the Smarty Jones last time out.
  6. Cu Rahy – Another whose only win was maiden score at Remington going 1 mile in the slop. Has been beaten by several others in here over the past few races including a 15 length defeat in the Smarty Jones.
  7. Warrior’s Club – Won a restricted stakes at Churchill as a maiden three back but wasn’t been able to up his game in the KyJC or the Smarty Jones when finishing 3rd and 4th respectively. Gets new rider for Lukas who’s having a decent meet with 6 winners from 39 starts. Cut or three below.
  8. Petrov – Broke maiden at Churchill going 6f in November. Was second next out and again behind Uncontested in the Smarty Jones last time. Ortiz sticks with him but have a feeling that this will be his last shot with top jock.
  9. Dilettante – Another Lukas trainee. Took him 8 starts to get his maiden win here last time out going 1 mile. Was second to Silver Dust three back in race that produced next out winner.
  10. Hence – Maiden victor last time out vs. next out winner Horse Fly. This one’s a ‘Calumet keeper’ meaning the bred and own this 3 year-old son of Street Boss who’s trained by Asmussen.
  11. One Liner – Pletcher sends this son of Into Mischief to Hot Sprints with two wins from as many starts, hoping to join the Road to the Derby as a relative unknown. Running line from last says he was “asked to gallop out” after an easy win going 6 at Gulfstream in an OC$75k/n1x when he earned the co-high BRIS speed 97 for this race. Tough spot to start from but expect big things from this guy.
  12. P C Cowboy – Third in last off maiden score two back. Was claimed for $20k from first career start three back. Sire won this race in 2011 when it was still run at 1 mile and took the G1 Arkansas Derby that year before finishing 15th to Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby.
  13. Chief Know It All – Broke maiden at Indiana Downs last summer. Third three times in a row before getting second victory last time out here in an OC$62,500/n2l. High, wide and outside for toughest test to date.