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Lecomte Stakes 2026 Analysis, Picks, Free PPs

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The Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on January 17 at Fair Grounds features an 11-horse field going 1 1/16 miles on dirt for a $250,000 purse and Kentucky Derby points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale. The past performances show a competitive group of lightly raced 3-year-olds, with several coming off maiden or allowance wins and a few already tested in stakes company.

Key figure leaders from the data:

  • High Power: #3 Crown the Buckeye 140.1, #11 Chip Honcho 133.3, #8 White Tiger 132.2
  • Class Rating: #3 Crown the Buckeye 118.5, #11 Chip Honcho 116.7, #2 Carson Street 115.3
  • Best Speed at Distance: #3 Crown the Buckeye 90, #8 White Tiger 88, #6 Thunder Buck 85
  • Last Race Speed Figure: #10 Stop the Car 92, #8 White Tiger 88, #6 Thunder Buck 85

The likely pace should be honest. #3 Crown the Buckeye and #11 Chip Honcho both showed early speed in the Gun Runner Stakes on December 20, with Crown the Buckeye setting the pace before weakening late and Chip Honcho pressing and closing to win. Early pars (91-97) are solid; late-speed pars (89-97) suggest closers could benefit if the front end softens.

Contender capsule summaries:

#3 Crown the Buckeye (4-1 ML, post 3) – Tops Prime Power and Class ratings. Set the pace in the Gun Runner before fading to third; prior stakes wins at lower levels. Good post, tactical speed, and Maker’s success in these preps make him the horse to beat.

#11 Chip Honcho (9-2 ML, post 11) – Gun Runner winner with a strong closing move. High Prime Power and Class figures, already has 10 Derby points. Asmussen barn is dangerous; wide post is the main concern but Lopez can work a trip.

#8 White Tiger (8-1 ML, post 8) – Impressive route debut win at Churchill (88 speed figure) with Irad Ortiz up for Cox. Strong Prime Power, sharp recent works, and proven at the distance. Logical improvement candidate.

#10 Stop the Car (8-1 ML, post 10) – Undefeated in two starts, topped last-race speed with 92 in an allowance win at Churchill. Rising figures and Walsh’s form are positives; big class test but has upside.

#6 Thunder Buck (6-1 ML, post 6) – Broke maiden impressively on Gun Runner undercard (85 speed). Good distance figure, Saez sticks for Cox. Fits the profile of a horse who can sit close and finish.

#5 Golden Tempo (8-1 ML, post 5) – Sharp debut sprint win at Fair Grounds, rallied from far back. Stretching out for DeVaux with Jose Ortiz; closing style suits projected pace.

#7 Mesquite (8-1 ML, post 7) – Route maiden winner at Churchill, freshened since November. Prat rides for DeVaux; workable trip possible.

Others: #2 Carson Street consistent but may need more; #1 Quality Mischief and lower-priced runners face tougher assignments.

Selections

  1. #3 Crown the Buckeye
  2. #11 Chip Honcho
  3. #8 White Tiger
  4. #10 Stop the Car

Suggested Plays

  • Win/Place: #3 Crown the Buckeye
  • Exacta Box ($1): #3-#8-#10-#11
  • Trifecta Part-Wheel ($0.50): #3 / #8-#10-#11 / #6-#8-#10-#11
  • Superfecta Part-Wheel ($0.10): #3 / #8-#10-#11 / #6-#8-#10-#11 / #5-#6-#8-#10-#11 (adds Golden Tempo underneath for value)

Focus on the top-rated figures and proven stakes form while using tactical speed horses underneath in exotics. Monitor track condition and any late scratches.

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