Free Santa Ynez Past Performances (2019)

Kentucky Oaks leaderboard includes three Santa Ynez hopefuls

A small but select field of five, three of which have made the leaderboard with points towards the 145th running of the Kentucky Oaks, will contest the $200,000 Santa Ynez Stakes (G2) going 7 furlongs at Santa Anita on Sunday.

Bellafina, the likely favorite for the Santa Ynez, currently sits in third on the leaderboard with 12 points. In ninth with 4 points is Reflect. And on the board with 2 points is the Baffert trainee Mother Mother who will be looking to improve on her 14th place position with a win on Sunday.

The Santa Ynez is worth 10 points to the winner and could move Bellafina down the list with a win by Reflect. But with only five horses in the field and the 10-4-2-1 points distribution by placing, it’s hard to see how there could be much movement unless she completely falls apart in the Santa Ynez.

Santa Ynez Odds and Analysis

1 Mother Mother — Baffert goes back to the drawing board with this miss who’s 2 for 4 going back to her maiden voyage victory last summer at Del Mar when she took a six furlong sprint in gate to wire fashion. Lost to Bellafina in the G1 Del Mar Derby in her second outing. Then was outfitted with blinkers for her last two — a winning effort going one mile at Churchill two back and a third place finish after leading the way to the sixteenth pole last time out in the G1 Starlet at Los Alamitos. The cutback for this one should suit her well and is sitting on a best of sixty-six bullet here a week ago. Van Dyke back aboard and blinkers off.

2 Bellafina — Hard not to see her as the favorite given her two G1 wins and a G2 that she won as a maiden. She was sent to post as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in her last start but a hop and a bump at the break could have been the excuse for her fourth place finish from the widest post. Wore blinkers for two of her three graded stakes wins, but not her last two starts. Like ‘Mother, she’s cutting back from two turns. But unlike ‘Mother’s trainer her trainer is 0 for 8 so far at the meet — and that’s always something to consider when looking for a bargain bet.

3 Sold It — “It’s a horse race. Anything’s possible. You can’t win if you don’t run.” All familiar phrases to handicappers with an open mind in search of a longshot. But this would be stretching the imagination a bit too far for this daughter of The Factor who broke her maiden on the turf going five furlongs. Stretched out last time in the Starlet at long odds and chased ‘Mother through three-quarters before tiring to beat one horse home in an equally small field. She’s obviously considered capable by her handlers having gone off as the favorite in two of her three starts. And trainer O’Neill has won this race three times. But there are several things in her form that makes it hard for her to sell it to me.

4 Tomlin — Off the bat, she’s shipping in from NoCal off a win at Golden Gate in their Debutante without her regular rider. And she’s picking up a rider who is 1 for 36 at the meet. To her credit she’s won three races — for a grand total of $78K. She’s got speed and will have to use it but translating a win at GG over plastic, rubber, and carpet fibers won’t be easy in SoCal.

5 Reflect — She gets back to where it all began for her when she won at first asking here last summer. Was no match for Bellafina in the G2 Sorrento despite that one being a maiden. Tried G1 company in her next three starts culminating with a sound whooping in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Toss the sloppy Golden Rod last time out and consider that her best race was three back in the G1 Alcibiades when she was just two and half lengths back of Restless Rider who came back to get second in the BC Juvenile Fillies. And who was four lengths in front of today’s favorite, Bellafina, who gave her all as the favorite that day. Connections and timing may be ripe for an upset in here.