Woodchopper Stakes: Odds, Analysis, WizCapper Picks

Woodchopper Stakes one of 5 races featured on the New Year’s Eve card at Fair Grounds

Woodchopper Stakes – Race 6

The $75,000 Woodchopper Stakes for three-year-olds going 1 mile on the turf has a full field of 14 set to go two turns over the Fair Grounds oval.

It’s a wide-open race with One Mean Man entered as the morning line favorite at 9 to 2.

One Mean Man is a 3 year-old who will be making his first start at the meet for trainer Bernie Flint (5  0-0-0 0%) off a 7th place finish in the G3 Commonwealth at Churchill last time out and will be ridden by regular rider Robbie Albarado.

Winner of 6 lifetime races, One Mean Man has shown he likes the Fair Grounds turf. He won the 7 1/2 furlong Keith Gee Memorial here at the close of last season’s meet and returned to finish 2nd in the Black Gold next time out in February.

Since then he’s won 4 races including the G3 American Derby going 1 1/8 miles at Arlington. Two back he won the Jefferson Cup at Churchill (originally scheduled for the turf but moved to the wet-fast main track) and offers bettors a viable option if it comes up off.

Note: There is plenty of rain in the New Orleans weather forecast for Saturday and Sunday.

Woodchopper Stakes by Post Position

1. Explosive Kowboy – 20 to 1. Twice a winner in seven lifetime starts for owner trainer Michelle Lovell who is saddling winners at 33% for the meet. Second in maiden voyage going 6 1/2 on dirt at Churchill in June eventually breaking maiden on dirt in a race originally carded for turf at Indiana. Did win at 1 1/8 miles on turf at Churchill two back then was a wide 6th going 1 mile at CD last time out. Distance is a concern.
2. Hay Dakota – 6 to 1. 4 time turf winner of $137K for Chicago based trainer Berndt who sends out this guy to start his Fair Grounds campaign. Took the Commonwealth last time out by a neck but is 0 for 2 at this distance.
3. One Mean Man – 9 to 2. Morning line favorite beaten three lengths last time out by rival to his inside. Drops down a notch and has a win over the track last January. Deserves favoritism but trainer is 0 for 5 so far. Distance is right for him.
4. Inside Straight – 12 to 1. New York bred son of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver is has a win and a second in two starts on the lawn. A two back winner at 7 1/2 on the turf at Remington vs. lesser company. Difficult to see a path home for him.
5. Royal Lion – 30 to 1. A second and a third in four starts on the turf for this Oklahoma bred who will be making what appears to be his first start away from the mid-west tracks for new to the Fair Grounds trainer who sends out his first runner at the meet. Did win a state-bred stakes at Remington going 1 mile on the slop.
6. Zapperini – 8 to 1. Broke maiden here on dirt in January as the favorite in a MSW for $40k. Added blinkers 4 back to get second lifetime win in a NW2L allowance going 1 1/6 miles on the turf at Ellis. Second in the Jefferson Cup and 4th in the Commonwealth. Trainer Foley (7  0-1-0  0%) so far.
7. Mav – 10 to 1. Three time winner on the turf in claiming and starter allowances. Was claimed for $40k from a winning effort at 1 1/16 miles on the Belmont inner in September. Won next out at Churchill in $50k starter allowance for new connections. Steps up in class for 26% trainer Cox and 33% rider Bridgmohan.
8. Sir Dudley Digges – 5 to 1. Canadian bred son of monster turf runner Gio Ponti is another who exits the Commonwealth when beaten a length to finish 5th. Broke maiden on Keeneland turf in April then headed north for restricted races where his worst finish was a sixth place at Fort Erie on dirt. Like the cut back to 1 mile for great connections but 5 to 1 seems short.
9. Wildcat Wish – 10 to 1. Struggled for most of year after back to back wins at Gulfstream in early summer. Added blinkers 4 back to finish second after setting pace in mud going 1 mile. Claimed two back for $50k from a third place finish in a Gulfstream Park West 6 1/2 furlong heat as heavy favorite. Won the restricted Sams Town at Delta Downs last time out on Jackpot day.
10. Cordon – 20 to 1. 1 for 6 lifetime. Started career here in March finishing second in 1 mile race taken off the turf. Broke maiden next out at Arlington in a MSW going 1 1/16 on the turf in July. Respectable 6th in G1 Secretariat at Arlington in the summer. Has a race at the meet a month ago when 4th on turf at this distance in a $40k AlwN1X. Trainer has thus far struck out with 12 runners at the meet.
11. Ikerrin Road – 10 to 1. Irish bred will be making third start stateside with Lasix since finishing 5th at Keeneland as the favorite going 5 1/2 on the turf. Returned in the Commonwealth at 21 to 1 and was 6th by two. Cuts back and should be close to the pace for third off the layoff and is sitting on a best of 43 bullet move going 5/8’s in :59.2 a few weeks ago.
12. Way Striking – 10 to 1. 0 for 3 on turf lifetime. Draws wide for race where he’ll face more worth opponents. Jockey Eramia can strike with price horses but is only 6% so far at meet.
13. Tiznoble – 15 to 1. Broke maiden at Churchill going 1 1/16 over a yielding turf course a year ago. Was 5th next out in non-graded stakes at GPW before ending 2 year old campaign with a win here in a $50K OCNW1X originally carded for turf. Went on the shelf for a whole year and returned two weeks ago with a win here going 7 1/2 on the turf and was claimed for $30K. New connections are quite good and this guy looks like a steal for $30k – if he’s sound he can improve.
14. Dolphus – 10 to 1. Comes in off 9 length win at Gulfstream on the 11th when adding blinkers. Draws widest but has the speed to lead from the start for top connections. Began career here last year with a win at first asking. May have found a new home on the lawn.

Wiz Capper selections for the Woodchopper

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