2025 Belmont Stakes Preview: Possible Starters and Key Contenders

Belmont Stakes 2025, Saturday, June 7 at Saratoga Race Course

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The 157th Belmont Stakes, set for June 7, 2025, at Saratoga Race Course, promises to be a thrilling finale to the Triple Crown, with a potential blockbuster rematch between Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty and Preakness Stakes victor Journalism. With Belmont Park under renovation, the race will again be contested at 1 1/4 miles, aligning with the Kentucky Derby distance rather than the traditional 1 1/2 miles. This shorter distance, combined with a $2 million purse, sets the stage for a competitive field featuring rested horses like Sovereignty and battle-tested runners like Journalism. Below is a preview of the possible starters.

Top Contenders

Sovereignty

Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Pedigree: Into Mischief x Crowned (Bernardini)
Recent Form: Sovereignty’s commanding Kentucky Derby win on May 3, 2025, showcased his affinity for challenging conditions. On a sloppy Churchill Downs track, he swung wide in the stretch, overtaking favorite Journalism to win convincingly. His connections, Godolphin and trainer Bill Mott, opted to skip the Preakness to focus on the Belmont, ensuring a five-week rest. This strategic move mirrors past successful campaigns, as Mott noted the benefits of spacing out races for longevity. Sovereignty’s pedigree, sired by Into Mischief, suggests versatility, and his dam Crowned’s stamina bodes well for the 1 1/4-mile Belmont. His recent workout at Saratoga (4 furlongs in 49.76 seconds) indicates he’s in top form, making him a formidable contender.

Journalism

Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Pedigree: Curlin x Mopotism (Uncle Mo)
Recent Form: Journalism, the Kentucky Derby runner-up, delivered a breathtaking performance in the Preakness Stakes on May 17, 2025. Despite a contentious incident at the top of the stretch, where he was bumped by Goal Oriented and squeezed against Clever Again, Rispoli guided him through a narrow gap to rally from five lengths back, overtaking Gosger in deep stretch to win in 1:55.47 over a fast Pimlico track. This gutsy effort, just two weeks after the Derby, highlights Journalism’s resilience and closing speed. His trainer is still assessing whether he’ll run in the Belmont, given the tight five-week Triple Crown schedule, but his Curlin pedigree suggests he can handle the 1 1/4-mile distance. If he enters, he’ll be a top favorite, though his odds may attract heavy public betting.

Gosger (Confirmed he will skip the Belmont)

Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Luis Saez
Pedigree: Nyquist x Gloria S (Tapit)
Recent Form: Gosger, a longshot in the Preakness, nearly stole the show, leading by five lengths in the stretch after dueling with Clever Again early. He ultimately succumbed to Journalism’s late charge, finishing second in his fourth career start. His prior win in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 12, 2025, marked him as a rising star, though he skipped the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Brendan Walsh has yet to confirm Belmont participation, but Gosger’s early speed and improving form make him a contender. His Nyquist sire brings stamina, but his dam Gloria S, by Tapit, raises questions about his ability to sustain his pace over 1 1/4 miles at Saratoga. If he adapts to the distance, his front-running style could challenge closers like Journalism.
Update: Gosger to skip the Belmont Stakes

Baeza

Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Pedigree: McKinzie x Puca (Big Brown)
Recent Form: Baeza, a half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont winner Dornoch, earned his Kentucky Derby spot through late scratches, starting from post 21 at 13-1 odds. He rallied from 15th to finish third, just a neck behind Journalism, showcasing his closing ability. Prior to that, he was second to Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 5, 2025. Skipping the Preakness, Baeza arrives at the Belmont well-rested. His pedigree, with McKinzie (by Street Sense, the 2007 Derby winner) and Puca (by stamina-laden Big Brown), is tailor-made for the 1 1/4-mile distance. Baeza’s upside and rest advantage make him a serious threat to upset the Sovereignty-Journalism rematch.

Other Possible Starters

Rodriguez

Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Pedigree: Authentic x Cayala (Cherokee Run)
Recent Form: Rodriguez, a Wood Memorial (G2) winner, missed the Kentucky Derby and Preakness due to a foot issue but is reportedly back in training for the Belmont. His wire-to-wire Aqueduct victory showed his early speed, but his absence from recent Triple Crown races makes his form less certain. Baffert’s history of success in major races adds intrigue, but Rodriguez will need to prove he’s fully recovered to compete with the top tier.

Hill Road

Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Pedi g ree: Quality Road x Exotic Notion (Lemon Drop Kid)
Recent Form: Hill Road solidified his Belmont credentials with a powerful closing run to win the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct on May 10, 2025, a key Belmont prep. After missing the Wood Memorial due to a fever, his late charge in the Peter Pan suggests he’s peaking at the right time. His pedigree and recent form make him a viable contender, especially for exotic bets.

Final Gambit

Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luan Machado
Pedigree: Not This Time x Pachinko (Tapit)
Recent Form: Final Gambit finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks, then skipped the Preakness. His consistent performances and tactical speed make him a candidate for the Belmont, though he may target the Matt Winn (G3) instead. His stamina will be tested, but he’s a potential spoiler.

Sandman

Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: John Velazquez
Pedigree: Tapit x Distorted Music (Distorted Humor)
Recent Form: He struggled in the slop on Kentucky Derby Day, but put in a strong showing to finish third in the Preakness Stakes just a couple of lengths behind probable Belmont favorite Journalism and Derby winner Sovereignty. It has been reported that Casse intends to skip the Belmont in favor of the Jim Dandy Stakes but NYRA still has Sandman as a possible starter.

Heart of Honor

Trainer: Jaime Osborne
Jockey: Saffie Osborne
Pedigree: Honor A.P. x Ruby Love (Scat Daddy)
Recent Form: This English-bred colt, sired by Honor A.P., finished fifth in the Preakness after a strong UAE Derby run. His U.S. debut showed promise, but he struggled after a slow start. Shipping to Saratoga, he’s a possible Belmont starter, with his pedigree offering stamina for the distance.

Crudo

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Pedigree: Justify x Blossom (Deputy Minister)
Recent Form: Crudo, a lesser-known prospect, has not competed in Triple Crown races but caught attention with a recent allowance win at Aqueduct, and more recently a front-running win in the $100K Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness Stakes undercard, suggesting potential for the Belmont’s distance.

Race Dynamics and Outlook

The 2025 Belmont Stakes, with its 1 1/4-mile distance at Saratoga, favors horses with tactical speed and stamina, especially those rested since the Derby like Sovereignty and Baeza. Journalism’s Preakness heroics make him a fan favorite, but his ability to handle a third race in five weeks is a question mark. Gosger’s front-running style could set the pace, potentially benefiting closers if he fades. Hill Road and Final Gambit add depth, while Rodriguez’s return introduces a wildcard. The Sovereignty-Journalism rematch, with Baeza as a potential spoiler, promises high drama, making this a must-watch event for racing fans. For more information on potential 2025 Belmont Stakes Contenders visit NYRA.com

Sources:

Expert analysis provided by user with 50 years of handicapping experience
Non-proprietary data from prior discussions on Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes
New York Racing Association

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