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2018 Kentucky Derby Horses: What are the odds?
1.) Firenze Fire (50-1) – Last year when he beat Good Magic in the Champagne he seemed a worthy contender. But when the table was turned in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished 20 back, the reality set in. And with little early foot and drawn inside this guy’s chances aren’t looking good.
2.) Free Drop Billy (30-1) – Love the fact that he broke his maiden at Churchill. But that was many races ago. Kept waiting for him to continue rising after his G1 Breeders’ Futurity win at Keeneland but could only manage on the board finishes in three preps this year. Likes this circuit and could show up in the exotics.
3.) Promises Fulfilled (30-1) – Another Romans runner who has a win here. Speedy son of Romans trainee Shackleford who was fourth in his Derby, he’ll be sent from the start. Won the G2 FOY in an upset but came out “washy” in the Florida Derby and stopped badly. Toss that effort and he looks valid on the lead for only so long.
4.) Flameaway (30-1) – Canadian has more wins than any other horse in the field at 5. And he was only a length back in previous two as the runner-up. There’s a 70% chance of rain on Saturday which should help his chances as one who will be forwardly placed from the break. Only concern is a lack of versatility in style as he’s never shown an ability to rate but could be carried by the track condition.
5.) Audible (8-1) – New Yorker started vs. state breds and quickly moved up the leaderboard when he won the G2 Holy Bull to mark his third victory in a row for Pletcher, two back. Got his fourth in a row LTO in the Florida Derby from off-the-pace with Velazquez who sticks with Vino Rosso instead. But Castellano knows this runner and if this NYRA runner wins this he’ll give new meaning to the phrase “Can You Hear Me Now?”
6.) Good Magic (12-1) – Won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in an upset and sat on the bench for 4 months before returning as the odds-on favorite to win the G2 FOY only to come up short in his ’18 opener. Redeemed himself in a big way last time out in the Blue Grass and seems like an overlay to us.
7.) Justify (3-1) – Three trips to the track, three wins, all as a 3-year-old. Which, if he wins this, would make him the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two-year-old. Has not been challenged to date. And his Santa Anita Derby win LTO was his best yet. Skies the limit for this guy but he’ll be tested for sure.
8.) Lone Sailor (50-1) – Ran his best race in preparation for this LTO in the Louisiana Derby but his neck was a little shorter than the winner’s, Noble Indy. His only win was in a Saratoga sprint on the slop and there’s a 20% chance of rain in Louisville on Saturday. Comes from way back but so does plenty of others.
9.) Hofburg (20-1) – Was second LTO in the Florida Derby after his maiden score in his race prior. That was an impressive effort. This will be the third start in two months and Ortiz obviously jumps off to ride Good Magic. Comes from off the pace in a crowded field and will need plenty of luck and stamina.
10.) My Boy Jack (30-1) – Plenty of deep closers in here but this guy will be behind all of them. Won the muddy Southwest three back before looming large in mid-stretch of Louisiana Derby only to flatten out and finish 3rd. Cut back to win the Lexington in last by a long head. The longer distance of the Derby may help his chances of completing some exotics, especially if it rains.
Free Kentucky Derby Past Performances provided by DRF.com
11.) Bolt d’Oro (8-1) – This guy was the earliest of Derby favorites when the ‘Road’ was freshly graded. But that was before the BC Juvenile loss to Good Magic. And he hasn’t been able to get it done in two ’18 outings. Has big numbers but was a no match second to Justify in the SA Derby and the rest of the field that day were just fillers. Gets 3-time Derby winning rider Espinoza but distance and style does not suit his chances for a win.
12.) Enticed (30-1) – It’s always a plus to make it to the Derby as the KYJC winner as a two-year-old. And that’s what this guy did. Has tactical speed to be well positioned to make a middle-move chance at being there in the end for top connections.
13.) Bravazo (50-1) – Has three wins with biggest margin of victory logged in maiden score at Churchill as two-year-old. Opened ’18 with back-to-back wins by a neck and a nose respectively. He can grind one out when he has to but HOF jockey Stevens gave him a shot LTO to gauge his chances and decided to pass for the big one. Too far to go in a tough race.
14.) Mendelssohn (5-1) – Love the fact that he’s a homebred and that his only trip to the states was a win in the BC Juvenile Turf last year. Never gone beyond a mile before winning the UAE Derby by 18+ lengths LTO earning a Beyer 106 that’s 1 under Justify’s 107 in the SA Derby. Ryan Moore could be sitting on his first ever Derby winner for top European trainer O’Brien.
15.) Instilled Regard (50-1) – Getting into the Derby is a numbers game and the inclusion of this guy into the field as the beneficiary of the defection of some higher earners on the leaderboard Won the Lecomte at Fair Grounds three-back, but his 4th place finishes in last two stand out as an also ran in the class of 2018 Kentucky Derby contenders.
16.) Magnum Moon (6-1) – Undefeated in 4 starts for Pletcher with biggest win in latest victory at Oaklawn. Consistently speedy type will have to break sharply to avoid being hung out wide in the first turn but has the speed to do it. From there he’ll have to contend with the others to his inside with speed and be able to carry himself another 1/8 miles in the process. Well spaced races and top connections give him every opportunity to win this one.
17.) Solomini ( 30-1) – From Team Baffert comes this guy who has been runner-up to the better ones in his class. And couldn’t catch a break in the Los Alamitos Futurity when DQ’d in a controversial stewards decision. He comes in to the Derby with plenty of upside and a chance to show a different side from high, wide and outside. Prat knows him and has a win over the track. If you like Magnum Moon, this guy is interesting at a price.
18.) Vino Rosso (12-1) – Love what’s happened with this guy since adding blinkers two back. Did not fire in the Tampa Bay Derby with the equipment change but two-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey/trainer combo seems focused with this guy and Velazquez had his choice of Pletcher trainees including 4-time winner Audible. Not a big fan of the Wood Memorial winner in the Derby but this guy looks different and is sitting on a bullet. SHOT to upset!
19.) Noble Indy (30-1) – On “Any Given Saturday” expect this one, this guy would be Johnny V’s mount and 3-1 instead of 30-1. But this is the Derby and despite having won 3 of 4 lifetime for Pletcher, he’ll be racing out in no-man’s land and chasing the pace.
20.) Combatant (50-1) – Another who got in by the hair of his chinny chin chin after the defection of others higher up the leader. Extremely longshot for top connections and keep in mind that his only win came right here at CD. He’ll be far back from the start and will need plenty of luck but he’s consistent and there’s something to be said for horses for courses. Could crack the long distance exotics at a price.
