152nd Kentucky Derby – Saturday, May 2, 2026
Purse: $5,000,000
Grade: 1
Distance: 1 1/4 Miles (DIRT)
Age: 3 Year-Olds
2026 Kentucky Derby Analysis: A Wide-Open Road to Louisville
The landscape of the 152nd Kentucky Derby shifted dramatically on January 29, 2026, when reigning juvenile champion Ted Noffey was officially ruled off the trail with a bone bruise. His absence has created a power vacuum, leaving a field of talented contenders to battle for favoritism as we move into the 50-point prep race season.
The New Leaders: Paladin, Chip Honcho, and Golden Tempo
With Ted Noffey sidelined, three horses have emerged as the primary targets for handicappers using FPPS data:
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Paladin (Chad Brown): Following a professional victory in the Risen Star Stakes, Paladin has surged to the #1 spot on the leaderboard with 60 points. He carries an elite OPI Score of 96.5, fueled by a 95 Recent Speed Figure. His “Competitive Grade A+” profile and relentless stretch run make him the definitive horse to beat.
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Chip Honcho (Steve Asmussen): After a bold pace-setting performance in the Risen Star, Chip Honcho solidified his speed threat. His Recent Speed Figure of 92 and 8.8 OPI Pedigree Index suggest he has the tactical speed and breeding to remain a factor as the distances stretch toward the classic 1 1/4 miles.
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Golden Tempo (Cherie DeVaux): Sustained a massive wide rally to finish third yesterday. His OPI Score of 89.4 remains high due to a superior 9.1 OPI Pedigree Index. As a closer who has proven he can compete against Grade A competition, he is our primary “wise-guy” horse to watch.
How to Use FPPS for the 2026 Derby
Handicapping the 20-horse Derby field requires more than just looking at winners. We recommend focusing on:
- OPI Trends: Look for sires like Not This Time and Gun Runner who are currently dominating the 2026 classic cycle.
- Recent Speed Figures: Identify horses that are “peaking” in their second or third start of the year.
- Trainer Intent: Use our Trainer FPPS Directory to see which barns (like Brad Cox or Cherie DeVaux) excel at the “Final Prep to Derby” transition.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Contenders
Here is the updated leaderboard for the Top 25 horses on the road to the Kentucky Derby, based on the latest official standings as of February 15, 2026.
| Rank |
Horse |
Points |
OPI Pedigree |
Comp. Grade |
Recent Speed Fig |
OPI Score |
| 1 | Paladin | 60 | 9.4 | A+ | 95 | 96.5 |
| 2 | Chip Honcho | 39 | 8.8 | A- | 92 | 91.2 |
| 3 | Golden Tempo | 35 | 9.1 | B+ | 88 | 89.4 |
| 4 | Silent Tactic | 25 | 8.5 | B | 88 | 87.1 |
| 5 | Renegade | 25 | 8.2 | B+ | 92 | 88.3 |
| 6 | Intrepido | 23 | 8.7 | B | 85 | 84.6 |
| 7 | Universe | 23 | 9.3 | B- | 81 | 82.9 |
| 8 | Plutarch | 23 | 8.9 | B | 86 | 85.5 |
| 9 | Nearly | 20 | 8.4 | B | 84 | 83.1 |
| 10 | Talk to Me Jimmy | 20 | 7.9 | C+ | 83 | 79.8 |
| 11 | Litmus Test | 19 | 8.6 | B | 85 | 84.2 |
| 12 | Soldier N Diplomat | 13 | 8.3 | C | 80 | 78.4 |
| 13 | Grittiness | 11 | 9.0 | B- | 79 | 81.3 |
| 14 | Carson Street | 11 | 8.5 | B | 84 | 83.0 |
| 15 | Napoleon Solo | 10 | 8.1 | C+ | 82 | 79.5 |
| 16 | Further Ado | 10 | 8.8 | B- | 81 | 82.1 |
| 17 | Express Kid | 10 | 8.2 | B | 87 | 84.9 |
| 18 | Strategic Risk | 10 | 8.4 | B- | 83 | 81.8 |
| 19 | My World | 10 | 8.7 | B | 85 | 84.6 |
| 20 | Incredibolt | 10 | 8.5 | C+ | 78 | 77.2 |
| 21 | Bravaro | 10 | 8.0 | C | 79 | 76.5 |
| 22 | Brant | 9 | 9.5 | B+ | 88 | 91.1 |
| 23 | Desert Gate | 9 | 8.6 | B- | 82 | 81.5 |
| 24 | Balboa | 9 | 8.3 | C+ | 80 | 78.9 |
| 25 | Buetane | 6 | 8.9 | B | 84 | 84.3 |
Pro-Handicapper Tip: The “Speed vs. Ceiling” Balance
On the Road to the Derby, Recent Speed Figures tell you who is fast today, but the Overall Performance Index (OPI) tells you who will be fast at 1 ¼ miles in May. Many early spring contenders post “Grade A” speed figures in 1-mile preps but lack the OPI (Pedigree Index) to sustain that pace in the Derby. When our OPI remains significantly higher than a horse’s recent speed, it signals a “Pending Breakout”—a horse that is genetically primed to improve as the distances stretch out.
