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Grade 2 Cigar Mile Handicap – Aqueduct, December 6, 2025
Canva
$500,000 | 1 Mile | 3YO & Up | No Lasix (HISA Rule)
Average Winning Speed Last 5 Years at AQU 1 mile G2/G3: ~101–102
Pari-mutuel Aware EV+ Model Run (as of morning line + live pool adjustments)
| Post | Horse | Model Win % | Fair Odds | ML | Current Live Odds (approx) | EV Edge | Notes / Key Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bishops Bay | 38.2% | 1.62-1 | 2/1 | 2.1–2.4 | +26% | Highest Prime Power, best last-race fig (101), top distance figs, Cox/Prat 43% L60 |
| 6 | Phileas Fogg | 24.8% | 3.03-1 | 9/5 | 2.4–2.7 | +11% | Blinkers ON + sharp :47.4 Dec 1 breeze = big late kick expected |
| 1 | Doc Sullivan | 17.5% | 4.71-1 | 5/1 | 5.5–6.5 | +18% | Tactical speed, fresh off sharp NY-bred stake win, Santana/Ortiz barn hot |
| 4 | Crazy Mason | 10.9% | 8.18-1 | 7/2 | 5.0–5.8 | –12% | Late closer needs insane pace; underlaid in pool |
| 2 | Mika | 5.6% | 16.9-1 | 12/1 | 14–18 | +8% | Only mild +EV longshot; Maker/Franco sneaky on class drop |
| 3 | Pentathlon | 2.4% | 40-1+ | 10/1 | 18–22 | –41% | No value |
| 5 | Brazenly | 0.6% | 99-1+ | 30/1 | 45+ | – | Pass |
EV+ Plays (Mathematical Edge Only)
- Win/Place: #7 Bishops Bay (+26% edge at anything 2.2 or higher)
- Exacta key box: 7 / 1-6 (Doc Sullivan & Phileas Fogg are the only two showing positive EV underneath)
- Trifecta: 7 / 1,6 / 1,6,2,4 (.50 base = $6 ticket) – 2 Mika is the only price horse the model keeps alive
Traditional AnglePicks Rankings + Multi-Pronged Wagering Strategy
- #7 Bishops Bay – Top Prime Power (149.3), best last-race speed (101), perfect stalking trip with Prat. Proven G3 winner at exact distance.
- #6 Phileas Fogg – Blinkers + cut-back to peak distance + Rosario = huge danger if Bishops Bay gets pressured early.
- #1 Doc Sullivan – The controlling speed. If Ricardo can slow it down to :47 and change early, he steals it on the front end.
- #4 Crazy Mason – Pure closer; needs total pace meltdown (unlikely with Doc inside).
Recommended Wagers (blending EV+ and traditional)
- $50 Win & $100 Place #7 Bishops Bay
- $10 Exacta box 7-6-1 ($60)
- $2 Exacta wheel 7 / 1,6 ($8) + reverse 1,6 / 7 ($8)
- $0.50 Trifecta 7 / 1,6 / 1,2,4,6 + 7 / 1,6 / 1,6 ($6)
- $5 Double into late Pick-4: 7 / ALL (or tighten to 7 / 10,11 if budget-conscious)
Bottom line: The model sees clear value on Bishops Bay at anything north of 2-1 and still likes him heavily up to 5/2. Phileas Fogg and Doc Sullivan are the only realistic upset threats, and both are playable underneath in exotics.
Bet with the AnglePicks edge and cash the Cigar Mile!
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