Belmont Stakes 2017: Contenders By The Numbers

The field is set for the 2017 Belmont Stakes which will be the highlight of the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival.

Here’s a look at the field from the rail out:

1. Twisted Tom – Winner of his last three, he’s a New York bred who’s beaten open company at Laurel in the Private Terms and Tesio. But that was the same bunch each time. Highest Beyer 78 pales in comparison but he’s been getting better with each race since adding blinkers to start his win streak. Hailing from the barn of top trainer Chad Brown and will be ridden by top jock Castellano, he’s got a lot going for him.
2. Tapwrit – Winner of three of four in Florida including the Tampa Derby in impressive fashion while beating State of Honor who is average at best. But this year’s crop of TC contenders are average at best anyway. His true colors were revealed in the Blue Grass when he lingered in the back without showing much effort. And his Derby performance wasn’t much either. His sire produced two Belmont Stakes winners in Creator (2016) and Tonalist (2014).
3. Gormley – West Coast contender was close up in the Derby early but failed to fire when the real running started. Expect he’ll be close up early and there’s a 20% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm in the forecast for the race which could help carry him further than he appears on paper to want to go.
4. J Boys Echo – Toss the sloppy Derby effort last time out and his fast track efforts have not been bad against much of this same bunch of average 3YO’s. He beat the Preakness winner, Cloud Computing, handily in the Gotham three back and if he can translate that inner-track effort at Aqueduct he could be part of the exotics.
5. Hollywood Handsome – Exited the Illinois Derby two back to narrowly win an ALW at Churchill last time out as the even money favorite. Deep closer should like the added ground but picks up 10 lbs. for this one. Not convinced he has enough experience.
6. Lookin At Lee – Connections of last year’s winner Creator looking to make it two in a row with this hard-knocking son of 2010 Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky who skipped the Belmont that year. But unlike Creator who had enough early foot to stay within 6 or 7 lengths of the leaders, this guy is such a deep closer. And despite being the longest of the three TC races at 1 1/2 miles, deep closers don’t usually win this one. There’s rain in the forecast which would help. And he should be fit as a fiddle. Still don’t like that his only two wins came at Ellis but he’s been competing against the best of this class and the rider change is a BIG plus.
7. Irish War Cry – Holy Bull win was a shocker despite being only 4 to 1. And could easily be argued that he wouldn’t have won that one if Gunnevera hadn’t gotten stopped at the top of the stretch. Which was proven in their next out when Gunnevera proved he was better in the FOY and this guy was up the track as the favorite. However, he did make amends in the Wood next out beating Preakness winner Cloud Computing. Toss the Derby on the sloppy track and this son of  ’07 runner-up to the first filly to win the Belmont, Rags To Riches, and this guy should be in the hunt from the beginning. Still he’ll have plenty of company on the front-end and don’t see him winning this.
8. Senior Investment – Another deep closer who was picking up the pieces late last time out in the Preakness. But his biggest win was the G3 Lexington which is not in the realm of what others in here have done. Trainer won this race with longshot Sarava in 2002 and this guy would be an equally surprising upset.
9. Meantime – Exits the Peter Pan with speed to lead this one from the start and gets HOF jockey Mike Smith for the first time for high percentage barn. Son of Shackleford who was 4th in the Derby, 1st in the Preakness, and 5th in the 2011 Belmont Stakes. Distance limitations abound but if it were to come up sloppy would be tough to catch in here. Pace factor either way but hard to see him going the distance on a fast track.
10. Multiplier – Winner of the Illinois Derby before a 6th place finish last time out in the Preakness. Was running late but given that the top 2 finishers Cloud Computing and Classic Empire have skipped this one, tend to think that the winner of this one won’t come from the Preakness. Adds blinkers in attempt to be closer but if you like him, you have to like Senior Investment who closed much faster last time than this guy.
11. Epicharis – Winner of 4 in a row before a nose defeat to Thunder Snow in the UAE Derby last time out. May like it softer, so if it rains has a chance to affect the pace. But it’s hard to bet on shippers from outside our U.S. borders unless it’s the Breeders’ Cup and their on the turf. Still this guy comes with class from Japan.
12. Patch – Lightly raced son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags for same connections. Grandsire on dams side also won this one in 1992. This guy only has one eye and it happens to be his “inside” eye. And given that he’s “outside” of everyone in here, Johnny V. will have to be extra strategic to “keep an eye” on the rest of the field throughout. But his only win came with Velazquez. And if we toss the sloppy Derby, in which he was bet down to 14 to 1 with only three races under his belt, this guy has all the makings of the upset winner in here. He’s fresh and he’s ready. The Pick.

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