Sponsored
Horse racing news and analysis from TheFreePPs.com
2026 Indiana Derby Recap: Brad Cox's unexposed sensation Leading Change (5/1) validates his field-high 3.15 Pedigree Index, leaping from a maiden sprint to capture the G3 classic.
2026 Indiana Derby Recap: Matt Winn runner-up Our Moneyman (4/1) sustains his elite multi-pillar consistency, closing furiously down the lane to miss by just a neck.
2026 Victory Ride Recap: Longshot Sippin Pretty pulls off a massive 26-1 upset at the Spa under Ricardo Santana Jr., wearing down heavy favorite Goodall in deep stretch.
Tracking Analytics: Our lifetime track/distance "hard filters" successfully isolated the tracking flights, exposing paper contenders and unlocking deep-value contenders.
Handicapping Edge: Keep your advantage with our three pillars—the OPI Pedigree Index, Competitive Grade, and Recent Speed Figure—updated automatically for all upcoming summer entries.
Free fpps Access: Get public links to completely free, unrestricted premium past performance files daily at TheFreePPs.com—no subscriptions, no proprietary walls.
Help the player. Help the game.

Louisiana Derby (G2) Fair Grounds

Distance: 1 3/16 Miles A Par OPI: 90+
Update Finalized
July 16, 2026

Official Field Analysis: Louisiana Derby (G2)

Post: 6:42 PM ET

The road to Louisville runs through New Orleans this Saturday. With 100 points on the line, the fpps model identifies Golden Tempo and Chip Honcho as the definitive "Real Winners" based on local surface efficiency and 9-furlong stamina. We are closely monitoring the Blinkers ON equipment change for Golden Tempo; our analysis suggests this move targets a more focused closing kick for the long FG stretch. Furthermore, our Medication Filters have downgraded three high-speed shippers who must now compete Lasix-Free for the first time in a Graded Stakes environment.

Sponsored Analysis
High-Value OPI Intelligence:

At a grueling 1 3/16 miles, the Louisiana Derby is the ultimate DNA reality check. Our OPI Pedigree Index identifies the grinders capable of handling the longest stretch in North America.

Review the full Pro Betting Sheet analysis below for final Hard Filter results.

OPI Pedigree Deep-Dive

The 1 3/16-mile journey at Fair Grounds is a unique stamina test. Chip Honcho (7.90 Index) and Spirit of Royal (7.50 Index) represent the elite stamina tier. Conversely, speed-heavy types like Emerging Market face a significant stamina ceiling when forced to go nearly 10 furlongs without medication assistance.

Top OPI Score
5 Golden Tempo
OPI Score 118.2
Comp. Grade 120
Recent Speed 91
Lifetime Track & Distance Filter Result
Lasix-Free Transition & 9.5f Stamina (Track Winner + OPI Pedigree > 5.0).

Value Audit

Our Expert Perspective uses a 50/30/20 weighting to separate true value from public hype.

OPI Confidence: High
  • Pedigree Index20%
Analysis calibrated for: Fair Surface
1
Pavlovian
ML: 8/1
stalker
RISKY OVERLAY
2
Autobahn
ML: 30/1
stalker
RISKY OVERLAY
3
Chip Honcho
ML: 3/1
speed
FAIR VALUE
4
Universe
ML: 12/1
closer
ELITE OVERLAY
5
Golden Tempo
ML: 5/2
closer
UNDERLAY
6
Spirit of Royal
ML: 20/1
closer
RISKY OVERLAY
7
Blacksmith
ML: 10/1
stalker
RISKY OVERLAY
8
Easterly
ML: 15/1
stalker
RISKY OVERLAY
9
Emerging Market
ML: 6/1
closer
RISKY OVERLAY

Get the PDF Pro Betting Sheet

Bypass public pool bias. Unlock complete field analytics utilizing our refined three-pillar Overall Performance Index (OPI) architecture—featuring full leaderboards, tactical pace maps, and exact wagering strategies.

Format: Print-Ready PDF Download • Price: Coming Soon
Your secure download will be emailed to you. You can also access your printable sheets at any time by logging into your Account Dashboard on our site.
WEATHER & TRACK ALERT: Forecast for Matt Winn Stakes Post Time is CLOUDY & FAST. OPI Recent Speed Figures (50% weight) are prioritized for today's Fast track conditions.
Track Intelligence Engine
Data Sync: Projected Model: No Guarantee of Results
Post Horse OPI Pedigree Comp Grade Recent Speed OPI Score Status
1 Pavlovian 8/1 4.2 114 95 112.2 PAPER
2 Autobahn 30/1 6.1 108 80 104.1 PAPER
3 Chip Honcho 3/1 7.9 118 97 117.9 REAL WINNER
4 Universe 12/1 0.3 117 89 111.5 REAL WINNER
5 Golden Tempo 5/2 5.8 120 91 118.2 REAL WINNER
6 Spirit of Royal 20/1 7.5 105 84 105.7 PAPER
7 Blacksmith 10/1 3.2 112 92 112.4 PAPER
8 Easterly 15/1 5.4 110 87 107.8 PAPER
9 Emerging Market 6/1 0.3 115 99 113.8 PAPER

OPI Watchlist: Louisiana Derby

Golden Tempo (#5)

Style: Closer

A+
OPI Scout: OPI Surge (118.2) triggered by "Blinkers ON" move. Verified "Real Winner" with 2-for-3 record at FG.
Chip Honcho (#3)

Style: Speed

A
OPI Scout: Field-high OPI Pedigree Index (7.90). Tactical speed is the primary "Gate-to-Wire" threat.
The "Hard Filter" Forecast

Hard Filter Alert: Emerging Market, Blacksmith, and Easterly designated as "Paper Contenders" due to Lasix OFF medication changes and lack of 9f+ distance experience.

Refresh Analysis →

OPI Strategic Framework

The Efficiency Play

Focus on the Top OPI Qualifier and the Heavyweight in a vertical structure.

Positive Regression

Build around the "Real Winner" filter horses while explicitly fading the Public Trap.

Kelly Criterion: Value Calculator

Select a contender from your Pro Betting Sheet to see the recommended unit stake.

Recommended Stake $0.00

Strategy: Quarter-Kelly

Risk-adjusted for long-term growth.

Disclaimer: The Overall Performance Index (OPI) and Pro Betting Sheet data are for educational purposes. All wagering responsibilities rest with the user. 1-800-GAMBLER.

↑ TOP